Risk assessment and emergency response of limited power space operation

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guan Cheng ◽  
Yu Zhen ◽  
Feng Jie
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Limited Power ◽  
Space Operation

scholarly journals Population simulations of COVID-19 outbreaks provide tools for risk assessment and continuity planning

JAMIA Open ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bo Peng ◽  
Rowland W Pettit ◽  
Christopher I Amos
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Robustness Analysis ◽  
Health Policies ◽  
Command Line ◽  
Public Health Policies ◽  
Continuity Planning ◽  
Quantitative Estimates ◽  
Community Infection

Abstract Objectives We developed COVID-19 Outbreak Simulator (https://ictr.github.io/covid19-outbreak-simulator/) to quantitatively estimate the effectiveness of preventative and interventive measures to prevent and battle COVID-19 outbreaks for specific populations. Materials and methods Our simulator simulates the entire course of infection and transmission of the virus among individuals in heterogeneous populations, subject to operations and influences, such as quarantine, testing, social distancing, and community infection. It provides command-line and Jupyter notebook interfaces and a plugin system for user-defined operations. Results The simulator provides quantitative estimates for COVID-19 outbreaks in a variety of scenarios and assists the development of public health policies, risk-reduction operations, and emergency response plans. Discussion Our simulator is powerful, flexible, and customizable, although successful applications require realistic estimation and robustness analysis of population-specific parameters. Conclusion Risk assessment and continuity planning for COVID-19 outbreaks are crucial for the continued operation of many organizations. Our simulator will be continuously expanded to meet this need.

Quantitative Risk Analysis for Natural Gas Long-Distance Pipeline Leakage

2014 ◽  
Vol 1030-1032 ◽  
pp. 661-664
Author(s):  
Zhe Zuo
Keyword(s):  
Numerical Simulation ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Necessary Conditions ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Safe Operation ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Main Factors ◽  
Accident Scenarios

The risk of natural gas long-distance pipeline and main factors of accidents are analyzed in this paper. According the consequences from above, quantitative risk assessment of long-distance pipelines under specific accident scenarios are completed with the help of numerical simulation model on long-distance pipeline leakage and dispersion. What’s more, on the basis of the assessment results, the necessary conditions for long-distance pipeline safe operation are presented. Finally, conclusions and safe operations under necessary conditions given in this paper are helpful for regular operation of pipeline, accident prevention, emergency response and reasonable supervision.

Findings From 16 Years of Auditing Pipeline Integrity Management Systems

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Oliver J. Hodgson ◽  
Dennis W. J. Keen ◽  
Malcolm Toft
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Performance Metrics ◽  
Good Control ◽  
Operating Conditions ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Management Systems ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Holistic View ◽  
Integrity Management

A Pipeline Integrity Management System (PIMS) is a comprehensive, systematic, and integrated set of arrangements implemented by an operator to assess, mitigate, and manage pipeline risk. Over the past 16 years, Penspen have performed over 30 PIMS audits of pipeline operators internationally. This paper presents the collated findings from these audits, and examines the common areas in which operators have fallen short of best practice. The paper concludes with a series of recommendations based on the findings, which can be adopted by operators to improve their PIMS arrangements and practices. Penspen’s standardized 17 -element PIMS Model takes a holistic view of pipeline integrity. The audits, which are based on the Model, assess the adequacy and effectiveness of operators’ management systems and arrangements in keeping risks to people, the environment, and to the business to acceptable levels, given the anticipated pipeline operating conditions and taking into account the pipeline’s history and current status. Starting at the ‘top level’ of a PIMS, the audits consider the adequacy of operators’ pipeline policies, objectives, and performance metrics, and how these are subject to monitoring, review, and audit. The audits look at the organization responsible for managing the integrity of pipelines, and examine how all those with a role to play in the wider PIMS work together to this end. The numerous activities that take place during a pipeline’s lifecycle are investigated, to assess how the risk assessment results are used to determine the control and mitigation measures to be implemented during the pipeline’s design, construction, handover, commissioning, operation, inspection and maintenance, and how the operator ensures the effectiveness of these measures. The audits also study those ‘supporting’ processes and systems which play an important part in pipeline integrity management, including procurement, emergency response and recovery, incident investigation, change control, document and data management, and legal and code compliance. The collated results from the 30+ audits reveal that while operators typically have good control systems in place for the project stages of the pipeline lifecycle, controls for the operational stages have been found to be less robust. In terms of management and organization, operators can fail to recognize how many different individuals and teams have a role to play in the management of pipeline integrity. Furthermore, while operators often have good corporate systems in place for change control, emergency response, and risk assessment, such systems may not take into account pipeline-specific risks or requirements. Operators can tend to focus on pipeline safety and/or environmental-related risks, when through holistic assessment it can be shown that risks associated with production interruptions will tend to drive actions in practice.

scholarly journals Benchmarking an operational procedure for rapid risk assessment in Europe

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Dottori ◽  
Milan Kalas ◽  
Peter Salamon ◽  
Alessandra Bianchi ◽  
Lorenzo Alfieri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Operational Procedure ◽  
Flood Hazard Maps

Abstract. The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems, and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real–time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this work describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities. An extensive testing of the operational procedure is carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while ground-based estimations of economic damage and affected population are compared against modelled estimates. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results show the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

scholarly journals An operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment in Europe

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 1111-1126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francesco Dottori ◽  
Milan Kalas ◽  
Peter Salamon ◽  
Alessandra Bianchi ◽  
Lorenzo Alfieri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Emergency Response ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Warning Systems ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Hazard Maps ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Operational Procedure

Abstract. The development of methods for rapid flood mapping and risk assessment is a key step to increase the usefulness of flood early warning systems and is crucial for effective emergency response and flood impact mitigation. Currently, flood early warning systems rarely include real-time components to assess potential impacts generated by forecasted flood events. To overcome this limitation, this study describes the benchmarking of an operational procedure for rapid flood risk assessment based on predictions issued by the European Flood Awareness System (EFAS). Daily streamflow forecasts produced for major European river networks are translated into event-based flood hazard maps using a large map catalogue derived from high-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Flood hazard maps are then combined with exposure and vulnerability information, and the impacts of the forecasted flood events are evaluated in terms of flood-prone areas, economic damage and affected population, infrastructures and cities.An extensive testing of the operational procedure has been carried out by analysing the catastrophic floods of May 2014 in Bosnia–Herzegovina, Croatia and Serbia. The reliability of the flood mapping methodology is tested against satellite-based and report-based flood extent data, while modelled estimates of economic damage and affected population are compared against ground-based estimations. Finally, we evaluate the skill of risk estimates derived from EFAS flood forecasts with different lead times and combinations of probabilistic forecasts. Results highlight the potential of the real-time operational procedure in helping emergency response and management.

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