Bringing the Future into Focus: Benefits and Challenges of High-Resolution Global Climate Change Simulations

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
Stephen Gerald Yeager ◽  
Ping Chang ◽  
Gokhan Danabasoglu ◽  
James Edwards ◽  
Nan Rosenbloom ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The Future

Love, Inc.

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurie Essig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Dating Apps ◽  
Sense Of Security ◽  
True Love ◽  
The Future ◽  
False Sense ◽  
Global Movements

In Love, Inc., Laurie Essig argues that love is not all we need. As the future became less secure—with global climate change and the transfer of wealth to the few—Americans became more romantic. Romance is not just what lovers do but also what lovers learn through ideology. As an ideology, romance allowed us to privatize our futures, to imagine ourselves as safe and secure tomorrow if only we could find our "one true love" today. But the fairy dust of romance blinded us to what we really need: global movements and structural changes. By traveling through dating apps and spectacular engagements, white weddings and Disney honeymoons, Essig shows us how romance was sold to us and why we bought it. Love, Inc. seduced so many of us into a false sense of security, but it also, paradoxically, gives us hope in hopeless times. This book explores the struggle between our inner cynics and our inner romantic.

7. The future of the world’s reptiles

2019 ◽  
pp. 117-124
Author(s):  
T. S. Kemp
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Protected Area ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Considerable Reduction ◽  
Commercial Exploitation ◽  
Number Of Species ◽  
The Future ◽  
Important Approach

The world’s reptile fauna is facing the threat of a considerable reduction in the number of species. One estimate is that by 2050 over 500 species, around 5 per cent, will have been lost. By 2080, the figure will have grown to 20 per cent, which is approximately 2,000 species. ‘The future of the world’s reptiles’ explains that the threats to reptiles are: commercial exploitation for food, medicines, and ornament; habitat destruction; global climate change; and pollution. Any comprehensive effort to conserve needs to address all of these. By far the most important way to conserve reptiles is setting up and regulating various kinds of protected area. Another important approach is legislation to control trade in reptiles.

P6146Atmospheric front patterns and acute cardiovascular diseases, a new perspective in the cardiovascular threat of global climate change

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
N Boussoussou ◽  
M Boussoussou ◽  
M Rakovics ◽  
L Entz ◽  
A Nemes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Cardiovascular Diseases ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Cold Front ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Atmospheric Parameters ◽  
Atmospheric Front ◽  
Warm Front ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background There is substantial evidence that the health threat of global climate change is real and it could be a medical emergency. The impact of climate change on health is mediated through atmospheric parameters which are direct environmental stressors on the human body and have a potential cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality effect. Acute cardiovascular diseases (ACVDs) are already major public health issues and in the future unfavourable atmospheric situations, such as increasingly volatile fronts and their negative effects can further increase this problem. Despite evidence about the importance of different atmospheric parameters on health outcomes, there have been few results for atmospheric front patterns' CV effects. Weather fronts are the most complex atmospheric phenomena therefore these atmospheric parameters might have the greatest influence on ACVDs. Purpose We aimed to explore the effects of atmospheric front patterns on ACVDs. Methods A time series Poisson-regression analysis was used to analyse 6499 ACVD hospital admissions, during a five-year period (2009–2013), in light of front patterns. Covariates were three-day (target day and the two previous days) front sequence patterns comprised of the five major front types (no front, warm front, occluded front, cold front, stationary front). Relative risk (RR) estimates for front effects were adjusted for seasonality. The relationship on all ACVDs combined and separately on patient groups by major CV risk factors (hypertension, hyperlipidaemia, diabetes, previous CV diseases) was examined. Results We found that in general, front patterns containing warm front days had a detrimental effect. A warm front, when followed by two days with no fronts present, increased RR by 46% (CI: 4–89%, p=0,015). Cold fronts however were protective. A no front – cold front – occluded front pattern corresponded to a 28% (CI: 8–49%, p=0,037) decrease in RR, with this pattern being present in 1.1% of all days of the study period. Out of the group specific results an occluded front, following days with no fronts present, showed to have the largest effect on hyperlipidaemic patients, increasing RR by 144% (CI: 51–295%, p<0.001). Conclusions This work provides both independent evidence of front patterns' CV effects and a novel tool to investigate and help the understanding of complex associations between atmospheric fronts and ACVDs. The importance of our findings is growing in the context that extreme atmospheric conditions and changes are likely to become more common in the future as a result of climate change. Medical meteorology may open up a new horizon and become an important field of preventive cardiology in the future. In conclusion, a better understanding of atmospheric front effects is of particular importance in order to help identify possible targets for future prevention strategies.

scholarly journals MODELLING LONG TERM IMPLICATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION ON SHORE MORPHOLOGY OF NORTH NORFOLK, UK, COMBINING TOMAWAC AND SCAPE

2011 ◽  
Vol 1 (32) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicolas Chini ◽  
Peter Stansby ◽  
Mike Walkden ◽  
Jim Hall ◽  
Judith Wolf ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Stationary Processes ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
The Future

Assessment of nearshore response to climatic change is an important issue for coastal management. To predict potential effects of climate change, a framework of numerical models has been implemented which enables the downscaling of global projections to an eroding coastline, based on TOMAWAC for inshore wave propagation input into SCAPE for shoreline modelling. With this framework, components of which have already been calibrated and validated, a set of consistent global climate change projections is used to estimate the future evolution of an un-engineered coastline. The response of the shoreline is sensitive to the future scenarios, underlying the need for long term large scale offshore conditions to be included in the prediction of non-stationary processes.

scholarly journals Geographic Distribution Shift of Invasive Plant Austroeupatorium inulifolium in the Future Climate Projection

2021 ◽  
pp. 38-47
Author(s):  
Angga Yudaputra ◽  
Izu Andry Fijridiyanto ◽  
Inggit Puji Astuti ◽  
Rizmoon Nurul Zulkarnaen ◽  
Ade Yuswandi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Invasive Plant ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Invasive Plant Species ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Occurrence Records

Aims: This study aims to predict the future geographic distribution shift of invasive plant species Austroeupathorium inulifolium as the impact of global climate change. Study Design: The rising temperature and precipitation change lead to the geographic distribution shift of organisms. A. inulifolium belongs to invasive plant species that often causes a substantial economic loss and ecological degradation in the invaded areas. Modelling of species distribution using the climate-based model could be used to understand the geographic distribution shift of invasive species in the future scenario under global climate change. Place and Duration of Study: Center for Plant Conservation and Botanic Gardens – LIPI and 6 months. Methodology: The total 2228 of occurrence records were derived from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) database. The seven climatic variables were selected from 19 variables using a pairwise correlation test (vifcor) with a threshold >0.7. The ensemble model was used by combining Random Forest (RF) and Support Vector Machine (SVM). Results: Both two models are well-performed either using AUC or TSS evaluation methods. RF and SVM have AUC >0.95, and TSS >0.8. The predicted current distribution tends to have larger distribution areas compared to observed occurrence records. The predicted future distribution seems to be shifted in several parts of North America and Europe. Conclusion: The geographic distribution of invasive plant species A. inulifolium will be shifted to the Northern part of globe in 2090. Mean temperature of driest quarter and precipitation of warmest quarter are the two most important variables that determine the distribution pattern of the A. inulifolium. The predictive distribution pattern of invasive plant A. inulifolium would be important to provide information about the impact of climate change to the geographic distribution shift of this species.

scholarly journals Projection of North Atlantic Oscillation and its effect on tracer transport

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sara Bacer ◽  
Theodoros Christoudias ◽  
Andrea Pozzer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North Atlantic Oscillation ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Global Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenario ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Pollutant Transport ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Tracer Transport ◽  
The Future

Abstract. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) plays an important role in the climate variability of the Northern Hemisphere with significant consequences on long-range pollutant transport. We investigate the evolution of pollutant transport in the 21st century influenced by the NAO under a global climate change scenario. We use a free-running simulation performed by the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model coupled with the ocean general circulation model MPIOM, covering the period from 1950 until 2100. We find that NAO trends will continue to interchange in the future considering variable length periods, while the overall trend (150 years) is weakly positive. To investigate the future NAO effects on transport we consider carbon monoxide tracers with exponential decay and constant interannual emissions. We find that at end of the century south-west Mediterranean and Africa will see higher pollutant concentrations with respect to the past. On the contrary, central Europe and a wider part of north Europe will benefit from increased pollutant depletion. Therefore, under a global climate change scenario local air quality conditions over Europe and North Africa, influenced by North Atlantic teleconnection activity, will become more extreme.

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