An Optimal Control-Based Cascading Failure Risk Assessment Method

Author(s):  
Yu Weng ◽  
Chao Zhai ◽  
Yang Liu ◽  
Hung D. Nguyen
2022 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 423
Author(s):  
Liming Mu ◽  
Yingzhi Zhang ◽  
Guiming Guo

The risk assessment of the failure mode of the traditional machining center component rarely considers the topological characteristics of the system and the influence of propagation risks, which makes the failure risk assessment results biased. Therefore, this paper proposes a comprehensive failure risk assessment method of a machining center component based on topology analysis. On the basis of failure mode and cause analysis, considering the correlation of failure modes, Analytic Network Process (ANP) is used to calculate the influence degree of failure modes, and it is combined with component failure mode frequency ratio and failure rate function to calculate independent failure risk. The ANP model of the machining center is transformed into a topological model, and the centrality measurement of network theory is used to analyze the topology of the machining center. The weight of the topological structure index is measured by subjective and objective weighting methods, and then the importance degree of the machining center component is calculated. In this paper, the coupling degree function is introduced to calculate the importance of the connection edge, which is combined with the failure probability to calculate the failure propagation influence degree, and the component propagation failure risk is calculated based on this. Finally, the independent failure risk and the propagation failure risk of the component are integrated to realize the failure risk assessment of the component. Taking a certain type of machining center as an example to illustrate the application, compared with the traditional assessment method, the effectiveness and advancement of the method proposed in this paper have been verified.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (9) ◽  
pp. 957
Author(s):  
Zhongzhi Liu ◽  
Zhiwei Guo ◽  
Yongqing Li ◽  
Libao Zhu ◽  
Chengqing Yuan

This paper develops an improved failure risk assessment method and discusses the risk control measures for a large luxury cruise ship’s bilge system under fire accident conditions. The proposed method incorporates an expert weight calculation model and a risk coefficient calculation model. The expert weight calculation model considers the differences in experts’ expertise levels (i.e., qualification level, decision-making capacity, and decision-making preference). Further, the method integrates the evaluations resulting from fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) and extended fuzzy technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (FTOPSIS) of different experts. The risk coefficient (RC) calculation model utilizes a three-dimensional continuous matrix, serving to determine the risk factors’ ratings. The influences of the expert weight and RC calculation models on the proposed method’s performance are studied through a sensitivity analysis. The work demonstrates that the proposed method minimizes the issues encountered when using conventional methods for determining risk ratings. Finally, the results of an empirical study comprising ten experts evaluating the VISTA cruise ship’s bilge system prove the applicability of the proposed method and offer practical design guidelines to meet the regulations for Safe Return to Port (SRtP).


2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 627-640 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shi Xianwu ◽  
Qiu Jufei ◽  
Chen Bingrui ◽  
Zhang Xiaojie ◽  
Guo Haoshuang ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Zuzhen Ji ◽  
Dirk Pons ◽  
John Pearse

Successful implementation of Health and Safety (H&S) systems requires an effective mechanism to assess risk. Existing methods focus primarily on measuring the safety aspect; the risk of an accident is determined based on the product of severity of consequence and likelihood of the incident arising. The health component, i.e., chronic harm, is more difficult to assess. Partially, this is due to both consequences and the likelihood of health issues, which may be indeterminate. There is a need to develop a quantitative risk measurement for H&S risk management and with better representation for chronic health issues. The present paper has approached this from a different direction, by adopting a public health perspective of quality of life. We have then changed the risk assessment process to accommodate this. This was then applied to a case study. The case study showed that merely including the chronic harm scales appeared to be sufficient to elicit a more detailed consideration of hazards for chronic harm. This suggests that people are not insensitive to chronic harm hazards, but benefit from having a framework in which to communicate them. A method has been devised to harmonize safety and harm risk assessments. The result was a comprehensive risk assessment method with consideration of safety accidents and chronic health issues. This has the potential to benefit industry by making chronic harm more visible and hence more preventable.


2021 ◽  
Vol 420 ◽  
pp. 129893
Author(s):  
Zijian Liu ◽  
Wende Tian ◽  
Zhe Cui ◽  
Honglong Wei ◽  
Chuankun Li

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document