First Order Non-homogeneous Markov Chain Model for Generation of Wind Speed and Direction Synthetic Time Series

Author(s):  
V. Di Giorgio ◽  
R. Langella ◽  
A. Testa ◽  
S. Z. Djokic ◽  
M. Zou
2004 ◽  
Vol 29 (8) ◽  
pp. 1407-1418 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. Nfaoui ◽  
H. Essiarab ◽  
A.A.M. Sayigh

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-87
Author(s):  
Surobhi Deka

The paper aims at demonstrating the application of the Akaike information criterion to determine the order of two state Markov chain for studying the pattern of occurrence of wet and dry days during the rainy season (April to September) in North-East India. For each station, each day is classified as dry day if the amount of rainfall is less than 3 mm and wet day if the amount of rainfall is greater than or equal to 3 mm. We apply Markov chain of order up to three to the sequences of wet and dry days observed at seven distantly located stations in North East region of India. The Markov chain model of appropriate order for analyzing wet and dry days is determined. This is done using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) by checking the minimum of AIC estimate. Markov chain of order one is found to be superior to the majority of the stations in comparison to the other order Markov chains. More precisely, first order Markov chain model is an adequate model for the stations North Bank, Tocklai, Silcoorie, Mohanbari and Guwahati. Further, it is observed that second order and third order Markov chains are competing with first order in the stations Cherrapunji and Imphal, respectively. A fore-knowledge of rainfall pattern is of immense help not only to farmers, but also to the authorities concerned with planning of irrigation schemes. The outcomes are useful for taking decisions well in advance for transplanting of rice as well as for other input management and farm activities during different stages of the crop growing season.


1982 ◽  
Vol 19 (2) ◽  
pp. 433-438 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.-C. G. Vassiliou

We study the limiting behaviour of a manpower system where the non-homogeneous Markov chain model proposed by Young and Vassiliou (1974) is applicable. This is done in the cases where the input is a time-homogeneous and time-inhomogeneous Poisson random variable. It is also found that the number in the various grades are asymptotically mutually independent Poisson variates.


2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tobias Filusch

Purpose This paper aims to introduce and tests models for point-in-time probability of default (PD) term structures as required by international accounting standards. Corresponding accounting standards prescribe that expected credit losses (ECLs) be recognized for the impairment of financial instruments, for which the probability of default strongly embodies the included default risk. This paper fills the research gap resulting from a lack of models that expand upon existing risk management techniques, link PD term structures of different risk classes and are compliant with accounting standards, e.g. offering the flexibility for business cycle-related variations. Design/methodology/approach The author modifies the non-homogeneous continuous-time Markov chain model (NHCTMCM) by Bluhm and Overbeck (2007a, 2007b) and introduces the generalized through-the-cycle model (GTTCM), which generalizes the homogeneous Markov chain approach to a point-in-time model. As part of the overall ECL estimation, an empirical study using Standard and Poor’s (S&P) transition data compares the performance of these models using the mean squared error. Findings The models can reflect observed PD term structures associated with different time periods. The modified NHCTMCM performs best at the expense of higher complexity and only its cumulative PD term structures can be transferred to valid ECL-relevant unconditional PD term structures. For direct calibration to these unconditional PD term structures, the GTTCM is only slightly worse. Moreover, it requires only half of the number of parameters that its competitor does. Both models are useful additions to the implementation of accounting regulations. Research limitations/implications The tests are only carried out for 15-year samples within a 35-year span of available S&P transition data. Furthermore, a point-in-time forecast of the PD term structure requires a link to the business cycle, which seems difficult to find, but is in principle necessary corresponding to the accounting requirements. Practical implications Research findings are useful for practitioners, who apply and develop the ECL models of financial accounting. Originality/value The innovative models expand upon the existing methodologies for assessing financial risks, motivated by the practical requirements of new financial accounting standards.


10.5772/59728 ◽  
2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eliane R. Rodrigues ◽  
Mario H. Tarumoto ◽  
Guadalupe Tzintzun

1982 ◽  
Vol 19 (02) ◽  
pp. 433-438 ◽  
Author(s):  
P.-C. G. Vassiliou

We study the limiting behaviour of a manpower system where the non-homogeneous Markov chain model proposed by Young and Vassiliou (1974) is applicable. This is done in the cases where the input is a time-homogeneous and time-inhomogeneous Poisson random variable. It is also found that the number in the various grades are asymptotically mutually independent Poisson variates.


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