Risk Analysis of Gas Turbines for Natural Gas Liquefaction

2011 ◽  
Vol 133 (7) ◽  
Author(s):  
Raja S. R. Khan ◽  
Maria C. Lagana ◽  
Stephen O. T. Ogaji ◽  
Pericles Pilidis ◽  
Ian Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Firing Temperature ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Technology Selection ◽  
Maintenance Cost ◽  
Technology Readiness ◽  
Technical Risk ◽  
Plant Equipment

Procurement of process plant equipment involves decisions based not only on an economic agenda but also on long term plant capability, which in turn depends on equipment reliability. As the greater global community raises environmental concerns and pushes for economic reform, a tool is evermore required for a specific and critical selection of plant equipment. Risk assessments based on NASA’s Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale have been employed in many previous risk models to map technology in terms of risk and reliability. The authors envisage a scale for quantifying the technical risk. The focus of this paper is the technical risk assessment of gas turbines as mechanical drivers for producing liquefied natural gas (LNG). This risk assessment is a cornerstone of the technoeconomic environmental and risk analysis (TERA) philosophy developed by Cranfield University’s Department of Power and Propulsion in U.K. Monte Carlo simulations are used in order to compare the risks of introducing new plant equipment against existing and established plant equipment. Three scenarios are investigated using an 87MW single spool, typical industrial machine, a baseline engine followed by an engine with increased firing temperature, and finally an engine with a zero staged compressor. The results suggest that if the baseline engine was to be upgraded, then the zero staging option would be a better solution than increasing the firing temperature since zero staging gives the lower rise in total time to repair (TTTR) or downtime. The authors suggest a scaling system based on NASA’s TRL but with modified definition criteria for the separate technology readiness levels in order to better relate the scale to gas turbine technology. The intention is to link the modified TRL to downtime, since downtime has been identified as a quantitative measure of technical risk. Latest developments of the modeling are looking at integrating risk analysis and a maintenance cost and scheduling model to provide a platform for total risk assessment. This, coupled with emissions modeling, is set to provide the overall TERA tool for LNG technology selection.

Risk Analysis of Gas Turbines for Natural Gas Liquefaction

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raja S. R. Khan ◽  
Maria Chiara Lagana ◽  
Steven O. T. Ogaji ◽  
Pericles Pilidis ◽  
Ian Bennett
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Firing Temperature ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Technology Selection ◽  
Maintenance Cost ◽  
Technology Readiness ◽  
Technical Risk ◽  
Plant Equipment

Procurement of process plant equipment involves decisions based not only on an economic agenda but also on long term plant capability, which in turn depends on equipment reliability. As the greater global community raises environmental concerns and pushes for economic reform, a tool is evermore required for specific and critical selection of plant equipment. Risk assessments based on NASA’s Technology Readiness Level (TRL) scale have been employed in many previous risk models to map technology in terms of risk and reliability. The authors envisage a scale for quantifying technical risk. The focus of this paper is the technical risk assessment of gas turbines as mechanical drivers for producing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG). This risk assessment is a cornerstone of the TERA philosophy, a Technoeconomic and Environmental Risk Analysis developed by Cranfield University’s Department of Power and Propulsion in the UK. Monte Carlo simulations are used in order to compare the risks of introducing new plant equipment against existing and established plant equipment. Three scenarios are investigated using an 87MW single spool, typical industrial machine; a baseline engine followed by an engine with increased firing temperature and finally an engine with a zero staged compressor. The results suggest that if the baseline engine was to be upgraded then the zero staging option would be a better solution than increasing firing temperature since zero staging gives the lower rise in Total Time to Repair (TTTR), or downtime. The authors suggest a scaling system based on NASA’s TRL but with modified definition criteria for the separate technology readiness levels in order to better relate the scale to gas turbine technology. The intention is to link the modified TRL to downtime, since downtime has been identified as a quantitative measure of technical risk. Latest developments of the modelling are looking at integrating risk analysis and a maintenance cost and scheduling model to provide a platform for total risk assessment. This, coupled with emissions modelling, is set to provide the overall TERA tool for LNG technology selection.

Risk Analysis of Power-Gen Gas Turbines With GADS Outage Data

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bin Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Gas Turbine ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Data System ◽  
Loss Prevention ◽  
The Past ◽  
The North ◽  
Effective Assessment

According to FM Global proprietary data, power-gen gas turbine losses have consistently represented a dominant share of the overall equipment-based loss value over the past decade. Effective assessment of loss exposure or risk related to gas turbines has become and will continue to be a critical but challenging task for property insurers and their clients. Such systematic gas turbine risk assessment is a necessary step to develop strategies for turbine risk mitigation and loss prevention. This paper presents a study of outage data from the Generating Availability Data System (GADS) by the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC). The risk of forced outages in turbines was evaluated in terms of outage days and number of outages per unit-year. In order to understand the drivers of the forced outages, the influence of variables including turbine age, capacity, type, loading characteristic, and event cause codes were analyzed by grouping the outage events based on the chosen values (or ranges of values) of these variables. A list of major findings related to the effect of these variables on the risk of forced outage is discussed.

scholarly journals Technical Risk Analysis of Railway Vehicle

2010 ◽  
Vol 14-15 (1) ◽  
pp. 351-358
Author(s):  
Adam Mańka ◽  
Rafał Wachnik
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
European Commission ◽  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Railway Vehicle ◽  
Railway Transport ◽  
Official Document ◽  
Technical Risk ◽  
Commission Regulation ◽  
Risk Assessment And Analysis

Technical Risk Analysis of Railway Vehicle The first official document concerning technical risk assessment in railway transport was "Safety Directive" #49 released in 2004 by European Commission. It was particularized in commission regulation number 352 from 2009 on the adoption of a common safety method on risk evaluation and assessment. The actual requirement of technical risk assessment results from building and implementing IRIS, and from 2012 it will result from certification of maintenance facilities (Directive 110/2008/EC). In this article legal basics concerning technical risk assessment, and analysis of railway accidents were discussed.

A TERA Based Comparison of Heavy Duty Engines and Their Artificial Design Variants for Liquified Natural Gas Service

2013 ◽  
Vol 136 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Matteo Maccapani ◽  
Raja S. R. Khan ◽  
Paul J. Burgmann ◽  
Giuseppina Di Lorenzo ◽  
Stephen O. T. Ogaji ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Value Chain ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Research Collaboration ◽  
Global Solutions ◽  
Heavy Duty ◽  
Process Technology ◽  
Equipment Selection ◽  
Selection Of

The liquefaction of natural gas is an energy intensive process and accounts for a considerable portion of the costs in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) value chain. Within this, the selection of the driver for running the gas compressor is one of the most important decisions and indeed the plant may well be designed around the driver, so one can appreciate the importance of driver selection. This paper forms part of a series of papers focusing on the research collaboration between Shell Global Solutions and Cranfield University, looking at the equipment selection of gas turbines in LNG service. The paper is a broad summary of the LNG Technoeconomic and Environmental Risk Analysis (TERA) tool created for equipment selection and looks at all the important factors affecting selection, including thermodynamic performance simulation of the gas turbines, lifing of hot gas path components, risk analysis, emissions, maintenance scheduling, and economic aspects. Moreover, the paper looks at comparisons between heavy duty industrial frame engines and two artificial design variants representing potential engine uprates. The focus is to provide a quantitative and multidisciplinary approach to equipment selection. The paper is not aimed to produce absolute accurate results (e.g., in terms of engine life prediction or emissions), but useful and realistic trends for the comparison of different driver solutions. The process technology is simulated based on the Shell DMR technology and single isolated trains are simulated with two engines in each train. The final analysis is normalized per tonne of LNG produced to better compare the technologies.

Individual and Societal Risk Analysis of Pipeline Failures Occasioned by Third Party Using the CPQRA Method: The Case Study of the Gas Pipeline in Utekon Community in Ovia LGA of Edo State

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
pp. 87-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Godfrey Omonefe Ariavie ◽  
Joseph Oyetola Oyekale
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Societal Risk ◽  
Transmission Pipeline ◽  
Edo State ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Pipeline Failures

Gas transmission pipelines mainly transport flammable fluids across the length and breadth of the country especially in the Niger Delta region of Nigeria. The associated risk to both the individuals’ encroaching and inhabiting areas along the right-of-way (ROW) and the society at large cannot be underestimated. Thus safety concerns considering the individual and societal risk of pipeline failures has become important. This paper attempts to develop a model for both individual and societal risk assessment for a 12km length natural gas transmission pipeline in Utekon community (commencing from the Benin-Auchi through Uhuwmunode Osina town and terminating in the Benin-Agbor axis) in Edo State using the Chemical Process Quantitative Risk Analysis Method (CPQRA). The CPQRA is used because it examines the hazard zones within a pipeline ROW and the number of persons that would be affected by fire/explosion. Finally, field data was used in this study to validate the model which can be applied to any natural gas pipeline risk assessment scenario.

Fundamental Impact of Firing Syngas in Gas Turbines

2007 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel O. Oluyede ◽  
Jeffrey N. Phillips
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Gas Turbine ◽  
Hydrogen Content ◽  
Firing Temperature ◽  
Power Output ◽  
Gas Turbines ◽  
Combustion Products ◽  
Metal Temperature ◽  
Turbine Component ◽  
The Impact

This paper addresses the impact of burning syngas in a large size, heavy-duty gas turbine designed to run on natural gas while maintaining hot section life. The process used to produce syngas is not discussed here; we mainly focus on analyzing the issues related to switching from natural gas to syngas on the gas turbine hot sections and the possibility of reducing the firing temperature in order to maintain the durability of the hot metal section life. The analysis indicate that the power output for a syngas-fired turbine plant could be increased as much as 20–25% when compared with the same turbine fired at the same metal temperature as the natural gas, however this increase in power output is also accompanied by an increase in the moisture content of the combustion products due largely to higher hydrogen content in the syngas and the increased turbine flow which contribute significantly to the overheating of turbine component parts. Correlations based on the hydrogen content as well as the lower heating value of the fuels were obtained in order to determine specific firing temperature reduction necessary to obtain durable metal temperature.

Designing Risk Qualitative Assessment on Fiber Optic Instalation Project in Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (01) ◽  
Author(s):  
Devi Pratami
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Fiber Optic ◽  
Qualitative Assessment ◽  
Quality And Safety ◽  
Project Implementation ◽  
Cost Impact ◽  
Implementation Assessment ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impact Cost

A project always has risks that can lead to project failure. In the project, a risk analysis is required to provide an evaluation for the project to proceed as planned. In the event of inadequate planning and ineffective control, it will result in irregularities identified as a risk to the project. This study aims to analyze the qualitative risk on Fiber Optic Installaion project in Sukabumi, West Java, Indonesia. In addition, risk assessment is undertaken on project implementation. Assessment of risk using the impact and probability to measure the impact of risk occurrence. The impacts are more detailed by classified by time impact, cost impact, quality impact, safety and security impact, proximity. The result is there are 36 risk that may occur and mostly risks are associaated by quality and safety&security impact.

IRISK METHOD FOR SECURITY ESTIMATION OF THE SIMULATION POLYGON FOR THE PROTECTION OF CRITICAL INFORMATION RESOURCES

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bogdan Korniyenko ◽  
Lilia Galata
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Information System ◽  
Information Security ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Information Resources ◽  
Security System ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Automated System ◽  
Information Risk ◽  
Critical Information

In this article, the research of information system protection by ana­ ly­ zing the risks for identifying threats for information security is considered. Information risk analysis is periodically conducted to identify information security threats and test the information security system. Currently, various information risk analysis techni­ ques exist and are being used, the main difference being the quantitative or qualitative risk assessment scales. On the basis of the existing methods of testing and evaluation of the vulnerabilities for the automated system, their advantages and disadvantages, for the possibility of further comparison of the spent resources and the security of the information system, the conclusion was made regarding the deter­ mi­ nation of the optimal method of testing the information security system in the context of the simulated polygon for the protection of critical information resources. A simula­ tion ground for the protection of critical information resources based on GNS3 application software has been developed and implemented. Among the considered methods of testing and risk analysis of the automated system, the optimal iRisk methodology was identified for testing the information security system on the basis of the simulated. The quantitative method Risk for security estimation is considered. Generalized iRisk risk assessment is calculated taking into account the following parameters: Vulnerabili­ ty  — vulnerability assessment, Threat — threat assessment, Control — assessment of security measures. The methodology includes a common CVSS vul­ nerability assessment system, which allows you to use constantly relevant coefficients for the calculation of vulnerabilities, as well as have a list of all major vulnerabilities that are associated with all modern software products that can be used in the automated system. The known software and hardware vulnerabilities of the ground are considered and the resistance of the built network to specific threats by the iRisk method is calculated.

scholarly journals The use of the PN-EN 62305-2 standard to the risk assessment of losses in the equipped object in station- devices of the railway traffic controlling

2018 ◽  
Vol 180 ◽  
pp. 05006
Author(s):  
Zofia Wróbel
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Public Services ◽  
Lightning Protection ◽  
Control Panel ◽  
The Public ◽  
Railway Traffic ◽  
Correct Estimation ◽  
Atmospheric Discharges

The valuation of the risk of losses makes easy the correct estimation of resulted threats as a result of atmospheric discharges and harms connected to them. Qualifying the need of lightning protection use for the object, we ought to take into account the risk R for the object and for the public services devices. In every case of examining risks we ought to fulfill: the identification of components RX forming the risk, counting the identified components of the risk RX, the entire risk R, identify the tolerated risk RT and compare the risk R with the tolerated value RT. As a result of such analysis we can come to a decision about the use of protection resources. In the report was realized the risk analysis of devices damages for a chosen object - the signal box with installed station - relaying devices of the railway traffic controlling with a computer adjustable control panel. From the realized analysis results that DEHN Risk Tool is a useful tool for the risk analysis of lightning losses in buildings, making possible the improvement of the calculations process, especially in the range of the choice of proper protection resources.

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