Dynamic risk assessment and early warning technology for oil terminal based on catastrophe theory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linlin Lu ◽  
Jing Zhou ◽  
Lecai Liang ◽  
Yanhua Hu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Catastrophe Theory ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment

High Throughput Diagnostics and Dynamic Risk Assessment of Variants of Concern

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfredo Maria Gravagnuolo ◽  
Layla Faqih ◽  
Cara Cronshaw ◽  
Jackie Wynn ◽  
Paul Klapper ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
High Throughput ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment

scholarly journals Dynamic Safety Management on the Key Equipment of Coal Gasification Based on Dbt-Dbn Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Han Gao ◽  
Yili Duo ◽  
Tie Sun ◽  
Xuefeng Yang
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coal Gasification ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Network ◽  
Dynamic Correlation ◽  
Dynamic Risk ◽  
Failure Data ◽  
Dynamic Risk Assessment ◽  
Bow Tie

Gasifier system is one of the important components of coal gasification device. The technical characteristics of this system mainly lie in the following facts as huge technical scale and high complexity, and there is a dynamic correlation between the failure modes of gasification equipment. Traditional safety analysis methods such as fault tree and bow-tie diagram suffer from drawbacks as being static and ineffective in handling uncertainty, which hamper their application to risk analysis of process systems. This paper presents a newly developed model based on Dynamic Bow-Tie (DBT) and Dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) for quantitative dynamic risk assessment of gasifier system. In the meantime, in order to cope with the uncertainty of the failure data, fuzzy numbers and the defuzzification method are used to transform the experts' language into the failure rates. The results showed that dynamic risk assessment can solve the difficulties dealing with complex dynamic systems which have process variables and characteristics such as multiple, failure correlations, and noncoherence. And it also has important theoretical significance and application value for coal chemical industry to improve the scientificity of risk assessment.

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