Impact of climate change on ice regime in a river regulated for hydropower

2015 ◽  
Vol 42 (9) ◽  
pp. 634-644 ◽  
Author(s):  
Netra P. Timalsina ◽  
Knut T. Alfredsen ◽  
Ånund Killingtveit
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Model Simulation ◽  
Regulated River ◽  
River Ice ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Ice Regime ◽  
The Impact

The ice conditions in a regulated river will depend on the climatic changes as well as the changes to the hydropower operation strategies in the future. The existing literature shows that very few studies have been carried out to investigate the impact of climate change on the river ice regime, which is important for operation of hydropower in cold climates. In this study, a series of modelling tools have been used to transform the climate change signal in terms of precipitation and air temperature into cross-section based river ice assessment in a basin with a complicated hydropower system. The study is based on the EURO-CORDEX climate change data extracted from a regional climate model driven by a suite of five general circulation models with three representative concentration pathways. Hydrological model simulation results show that the winter and spring flow will be increased, which will have an impact on the river ice conditions towards the middle and end of this century. Reservoir-hydropower model simulation shows that the production flows in the winter will be increased in the future. River ice model simulation shows the number of days with freezing water temperature are reduced in the future climate, and correspondingly days with frazil ice are reduced at most of the locations in the study area. The future period with ice cover will also be shortened. The paper also demonstrates a general methodology and procedure to simulate future ice conditions in a regulated river combining multiple models and data sets.

Impact of Climate Change on River Flows in the Black Volta River

2014 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 432-442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nobuhiko Sawai ◽  
◽  
Kenichiro Kobayashi ◽  
Apip ◽  
Kaoru Takara ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Precipitation Pattern ◽  
Present Climate ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This paper assesses the impact of climate change in the Black Volta River by using data output from the atmospheric general circulation model with a 20-km resolution (AGCM20) through the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) and the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI). The Black Volta, which flows mainly in Burkina Faso and Ghana in West Africa, is a major tributary of the Volta River. The basin covers 142,056 km2 and has a semi-arid tropical climate. Before applying AGCM20 output to a rainfall–runoff model, the performance of the AGCM20 rainfall data is investigated by comparing it with the observed rainfall in the Black Volta Basin. To assess the possible impact of rainfall change on river flow, a kinematic wave model, which takes into consideration saturated and unsaturated subsurface soil zones, was performed. The rainfall analysis shows that, the correlation coefficient of the monthly rainfall between the observed rainfall and AGCM20 for the present climate (1979–2004) is 0.977. In addition, the analysis shows that AGCM20 overestimates precipitation during the rainy season and underestimates the dry season for the present climate. The analysis of the AGCM20 output shows the precipitation pattern change in the future (2075–2099). In the future, precipitation is expected to increase by 3%, whereas evaporation and transpiration are expected to increase by 5% and by 8%, respectively. Also, daily maximum rainfall is expected to be 20 mm, or 60%, higher. Thus, the future climate in this region is expected to be more severe. The rainfall–runoff simulation is successfully calibrated at the Bamboi discharge gauging station in the Black Volta fromJune 2000 to December 2000 with 0.72 of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency index. The model is applied with AGCM20 outputs for the present climate (1979–2004) and future climate (2075–2099). The results indicate that future discharge will decrease from January to July at the rate of the maximum of 50% and increase fromAugust to December at the rate of the maximumof 20% in the future. Therefore, comprehensive planning for both floods and droughts are urgently needed in this region.

Climate Change Impact on Canadian Northern Shipping Regulations

2007 ◽  
Vol 44 (04) ◽  
pp. 245-253
Author(s):  
Ivana Kubat ◽  
Robert Gorman ◽  
Anne Collins ◽  
Garry W. Timco
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Northwest Passage ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Ice Conditions ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Ice Regime ◽  
Arctic Ice ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this study was to find what effect climate change would have on the Zone-Date System (ZDS). The paper presents an analysis of ice conditions in the Northwest Passage (NWP) shipping lanes and the access routes to the Port of Churchill in the Hudson Strait. The analysis examines the existing and potential changes to ice regimes in the NWP shipping lanes due to the impact of climate change. The length of the shipping season in the NWP is analyzed for each zone by both the ZDS and the Arctic Ice Regime Shipping System, and both systems are then compared. This paper discusses the results of the analysis.

scholarly journals Investigating the Impact of Climate Change on Future Runoff of River Satluj

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-21
Author(s):  
Narayan P Gautam ◽  
Manohar Arora ◽  
N.K. Goel ◽  
A.R.S. Kumar
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Climatic Condition ◽  
The Impact

Climate change has been emerging as one of the challenges in the global environment. Information of predicted climatic changes in basin scale is highly useful to know the future climatic condition in the basin that ultimately becomes helpful to carry out planning and management of the water resources available in the basin. Climatic scenario is a plausible and often simplified representation of the future climate, based on an internally consistent set of climatological relationships that has been constructed for explicit use in investigating the potential consequences of anthropogenic climate change. This study based on statistical downscaling, provide good example focusing on predicting the rainfall and runoff patterns, using the coarse general circulation model (GCM) outputs. The outputs of the GCMs are utilized to study the impact of climate change on water resources. The present study has been taken up to identify the climate change scenarios for Satluj river basin, India.Journal of Hydrology and Meteorology, Vol. 8(1) p.10-21

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on drought in the Daklak province

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 5-11
Author(s):  
Khoi Nguyen Dao ◽  
Quang Nguyen Xuan Chau
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Meteorological Drought ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Delta Change ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of climate change on the meteorological drought in the Daklak province. In this study, the meteorological drought was calculated using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI).From this result, two scensrios fot the precipitation VA1B and B1 were downscaled, from the outputs of 4 GCMs (General Circulation Model): CGCM3.1 (T63), CM2.0, CM2.1, and HadCM3 using the simple downscaling method (delta change method). The impacts of climate change on the droughts were assessed by comparing the present (1980- 2009) and the future droughts (2010-2039, 2040-2069, and 2070-2099).Results of the study suggested that the future temperature would increase by 0.9-2.8ºC and the future precipitation would decrease by 0.4-4.7% for both A1B and B1 scenarios. Under the future climate scenarios, the frequency and severity of extreme drought would increase. The results obtained in this study could be useful for planning and managing water resources at this region.

scholarly journals Effect of Climate Change on the Rainfall Trends: A case study of Pune, India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shalaka Shah ◽  
Shreenivas Londhe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Maximum Rainfall ◽  
Accurate Model ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Grid Points ◽  
The Impact

Abstract It is the need of the hour to predict the impact of climate change, especially rainfall on the future environmental conditions on local as well as global scales. The present work aims at studying the impact of climate change on the rainfall occurring over Pune, the eighth largest city in India. The General Circulation Models (GCMs) are predominantly used to obtain the climate data all over the globe, at various grid points, for past and future years. Rainfall values obtained from these grid points need to be downscaled to make them location specific. This study proposes a soft computing tool, Artificial Neural Network (ANN) for the purpose of downscaling. The rainfall data at 4 grid points surrounding Pune, was extracted from 5 different GCMs and given as input to ANN with observed rainfall as output, thus forming 5 models. For comparison, a pre-existing downscaling technique, Distribution based scaling (DBS) was used. The coefficient of correlation (r) showed that ANN was working better than DBS. The value of r for ANN was 0.73 for its least accurate model whereas DBS managed to reach 0.73 for its most accurate model. The future rainfall estimated with the help of the trained ANN models show an increase in mean rainfall over the Pune region by ∼2 – 15% and decrease in maximum rainfall by ∼40 – 65%. Peak prediction of rainfall simulated by ANN was not very accurate and hence there is still an opportunity for improvement which is the future scope of this study.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Mekong River basin: a case study of the Nam Ou basin, Lao PDR

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Shrestha ◽  
M. S. Babel ◽  
S. Maskey ◽  
A. van Griensven ◽  
S. Uhlenbrook ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sediment Yield ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Sediment Flux ◽  
Seasonal Temperature ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. This paper evaluates the impact of climate change on sediment yield in the Nam Ou basin located in northern Laos. Future climate (temperature and precipitation) from four general circulation models (GCMs) that are found to perform well in the Mekong region and a regional circulation model (PRECIS) are downscaled using a delta change approach. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to assess future changes in sediment flux attributable to climate change. Results indicate up to 3.0 °C shift in seasonal temperature and 27% (decrease) to 41% (increase) in seasonal precipitation. The largest increase in temperature is observed in the dry season while the largest change in precipitation is observed in the wet season. In general, temperature shows increasing trends but changes in precipitation are not unidirectional and vary depending on the greenhouse gas emission scenarios (GHGES), climate models, prediction period and season. The simulation results show that the changes in annual stream discharges are likely to range from a 17% decrease to 66% increase in the future, which will lead to predicted changes in annual sediment yield ranging from a 27% decrease to about 160% increase. Changes in intra-annual (monthly) discharge as well as sediment yield are even greater (−62 to 105% in discharge and −88 to 243% in sediment yield). A higher discharge and sediment flux are expected during the wet seasons, although the highest relative changes are observed during the dry months. The results indicate high uncertainties in the direction and magnitude of changes of discharge as well as sediment yields due to climate change. As the projected climate change impact on sediment varies remarkably between the different climate models, the uncertainty should be taken into account in both sediment management and climate change adaptation.

scholarly journals Impact of climate change on hydropower production in the Upper Danube

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignacio Martin Santos ◽  
Mathew Herrnegger ◽  
Hubert Holzmann
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Transfer Functions ◽  
Danube River ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Hydropower Generation ◽  
Climate Change Projections ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

<p>In the last two decades, different climate downscaling initiatives provided climate scenarios for Europe. The most recent initiative, CORDEX, provides Regional Climate Model (RCM) data for Europe with a spatial resolution of 12.5 km, while the previous initiative, ENSEMBLES, had a spatial resolution of 25 km. They are based on different emission scenarios, Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) respectively.</p><p>A study carried out by Stanzel et al. (2018) explored the hydrological impact and discharge projections for the Danube basin upstream of Vienna when using either CORDEX and ENSEMBLES data. This basin covers an area of 101.810<sup></sup>km<sup>2</sup> with a mean annual discharge of 1923 m<sup>3</sup>/s at the basin outlet. The basin is dominated by the Alps, large gradients and is characterized by high annual precipitations sums which provides valuable water resources available along the basin. Hydropower therefore plays an important role and accounts for more than half of the installed power generating capacity for this area. The estimation of hydropower generation under climate change is an important task for planning the future electricity supply, also considering the on-going EU efforts and the “Green Deal” initiative.</p><p>Taking as input the results from Stanzel et al. (2018), we use transfer functions derived from historical discharge and hydropower generation data, to estimate potential changes for the future. The impact of climate change projections of ENSEMBLE and CORDEX in respect to hydropower generation for each basin within the study area is determined. In addition, an assessment of the impact on basins dominated by runoff river plants versus basins dominated by storage plants is considered.</p><p>The good correlation between discharge and hydropower generation found in the historical data suggests that discharge projection characteristics directly affect the future expected hydropower generation. Large uncertainties exist and stem from the ensembles of climate runs, but also from the potential operation modes of the (storage) hydropower plants in the future.</p><p> </p><p> </p><p>References:</p><p>Stanzel, P., Kling, H., 2018. From ENSEMBLES to CORDEX: Evolving climate change projections for Upper Danube River flow. J. Hydrol. 563, 987–999. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2018.06.057</p><p> </p>

Representation of the Angolan low and Southern African Summer Precipitation in the CORDEX and CMIP5 models. 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sabina Abba-Omar ◽  
Francesca Raffaele ◽  
Erika Coppola ◽  
Daniela Jacob ◽  
Claas Teichmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Summer Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Variability ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Impact Of Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
Rainfall Patterns ◽  
The Impact

<p>The impact of climate change on precipitation over Southern Africa is of particular interest due to its possible devastating societal impacts. To add to this, simulating precipitation is challenging and models tend to show strong biases over this region, especially during the Austral Summer (DJF) months. One of the reasons for this is the mis-representation of the Angolan Low (AL) and its influence on Southern Africa’s Summer precipitation in the models. Therefore, this study aims to explore and compare different models’ ability to capture the AL and its link to precipitation variability as well as consider the impact climate change may have on this link. We also explore how the interaction between ENSO, another important mode of variability for precipitation, and the Angolan Low, impact precipitation, how the models simulate this and whether this could change in the future under climate change. </p><p>We computed the position and strength of the AL in reanalysis data and compared these results to three different model ensembles with varying resolutions. Namely, the CORDEX-CORE ensemble (CCORE), a new phase of CORDEX simulations with higher resolutions (0.22 degrees), the lower resolution (0.44 degrees) CORDEX-phase 1 ensemble (C44) and the CMIP5 models that drive the two RCM ensembles. We also used Self Organizing Maps to group DJF yearly anomaly patterns and identify which combination of ENSO and AL strength scenarios are responsible for particularly wet or dry conditions. Regression analysis was performed to analyze the relationships between precipitation and the AL and ENSO. This analysis was repeated for near (2041-2060) and far (2080-2099) future climate and compared with the present to understand how the strength of the AL, and its connection to precipitation variability and ENSO, changes in the future. </p><p>We found that, in line with previous studies, models with stronger AL tend to produce more rainfall. CCORE tends to simulate a stronger AL than C44 and therefore, higher precipitation biases. However, the regression analysis shows us that CCORE is able to capture the relationship between precipitation and the AL strength variability as well as ENSO better than the other ensembles. We found that generally dry rainfall patterns over Southern Africa are associated with a weak AL and El Nino event whereas wet rainfall patterns occur during a strong AL and La Nina year. While the models are able to capture this, they also tend to show more neutral ENSO conditions associated with these wet and dry patterns which possibly indicates less of a connection between AL strength and ENSO than seen in the observed results. Analysis of the future results indicates that the AL weakens, this is shown across all the ensembles and could be a contributing factor to some of the drying seen. These results have applications in understanding and improving model representation of precipitation over Southern Africa as well as providing some insight into the impact of climate change on precipitation and some of its associated dynamics over this region.</p>

scholarly journals A Simplistic Approach for Assessing Hydroclimatic Vulnerability of Lakes and Reservoirs with Regulated Superficial Outflow

Hydrology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 61 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kleoniki Demertzi ◽  
Dimitris Papadimos ◽  
Vassilis Aschonitis ◽  
Dimitris Papamichail
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Drainage Basin ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
General Circulation Models ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Modified Model ◽  
Natural Lakes ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Impact

This study proposes a simplistic model for assessing the hydroclimatic vulnerability of lakes/reservoirs (LRs) that preserve their steady-state conditions based on regulated superficial discharge (Qd) out of the LR drainage basin. The model is a modification of the Bracht-Flyr et al. method that was initially proposed for natural lakes in closed basins with no superficial discharge outside the basin (Qd = 0) and under water-limited environmental conditions {mean annual ratio of potential/reference evapotranspiration (ETo) versus rainfall (P) greater than 1}. In the proposed modified approach, an additional Qd function is included. The modified model is applied using as a case study the Oreastiada Lake, which is located inside the Kastoria basin in Greece. Six years of observed data of P, ETo, Qd, and lake topography were used to calibrate the modified model based on the current conditions. The calibrated model was also used to assess the future lake conditions based on the future climatic projections (mean conditions of 2061-2080) derived by 19 general circulation models (GCMs) for three cases of climate change (three cases of Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The modified method can be used as a diagnostic tool in water-limited environments for analyzing the superficial discharge changes of LRs under different climatic conditions and to support the design of new management strategies for mitigating the impact of climate change on (a) flooding conditions, (b) hydroelectric production, (c) irrigation/industrial/domestic use and (d) minimum ecological flows to downstream rivers.

On the Landslide Hazard with the Impact of Climate Change in Central Taiwan

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Keh-Jian Shou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Tectonic Activity ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Central Taiwan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Taiwan Area

<p>Due to active tectonic activity, the rock formations are young and highly fractured in Taiwan area. The dynamic changing of river morphology makes the highly weathered formations or colluviums prone to landslide and debris flow. For the past decade, the effect of climate change is significant and creates more and more extreme weather events. The change of rainfall behavior significantly changes the landslide behavior, which makes the large-scale landslides, like the Shiaolin landslide, possible. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the new technologies for landslide investigation, monitoring, analysis, early warning, etc.</p><p>Since the landslide hazards in Taiwan area are mainly induced by heavy rainfall, due to climate change and the subsequent extreme weather events, the probability of landslides is also increased. Focusing on the upstreams of the watersheds in Central Taiwan, this project studied the behavior and hazard of shallow and deep-seated landslides. Different types of susceptibility models in different catchment scales were tested, in which the control factors were analyzed and discussed. This study also employs rainfall frequency analysis together with the atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) downscaling estimation to predict the extreme rainfalls in the future. Such that the future hazard of the shallow and deep-seated landslide in the study area can be predicted. The results of predictive analysis can be applied for risk prevention and management in the study area.</p>

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