Real-Time Infectious Disease Modeling to Inform Emergency Public Health Decision Making

2022 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Bershteyn ◽  
Hae-Young Kim ◽  
R. Scott Braithwaite
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Disease Modeling ◽  
Disease Process ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Response Options ◽  
Infectious Disease Modeling

Infectious disease transmission is a nonlinear process with complex, sometimes unintuitive dynamics. Modeling can transform information about a disease process and its parameters into quantitative projections that help decision makers compare public health response options. However, modelers face methodologic challenges, data challenges, and communication challenges, which are exacerbated under the time constraints of a public health emergency. We review methods, applications, challenges and opportunities for real-time infectious disease modeling during public health emergencies, with examples drawn from the two deadliest pandemics in recent history: HIV/AIDS and coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health, Volume 43 is April 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

scholarly journals Translation of Real-Time Infectious Disease Modeling into Routine Public Health Practice

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
David J. Muscatello ◽  
Abrar A. Chughtai ◽  
Anita Heywood ◽  
Lauren M. Gardner ◽  
David J. Heslop ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Disease Modeling ◽  
Public Health Practice ◽  
Health Practice ◽  
Infectious Disease Modeling

Accuracy of Medical Examiner’s Assessment for Near–Real-Time Surveillance of Fatal Drug Overdoses, King County, Washington, March 2017–February 2018

2021 ◽  
pp. 003335492110084
Author(s):  
Kirsten Vannice ◽  
Julia Hood ◽  
Nicole Yarid ◽  
Meagan Kay ◽  
Richard Harruff ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Positive Predictive Value ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Negative Predictive Value ◽  
Drug Overdose ◽  
Predictive Value ◽  
Death Certificate ◽  
King County ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Drug Overdoses

Objectives Up-to-date information on the occurrence of drug overdose is critical to guide public health response. The objective of our study was to evaluate a near–real-time fatal drug overdose surveillance system to improve timeliness of drug overdose monitoring. Methods We analyzed data on deaths in the King County (Washington) Medical Examiner’s Office (KCMEO) jurisdiction that occurred during March 1, 2017–February 28, 2018, and that had routine toxicology test results. Medical examiners (MEs) classified probable drug overdoses on the basis of information obtained through the death investigation and autopsy. We calculated sensitivity, positive predictive value, specificity, and negative predictive value of MEs’ classification by using the final death certificate as the gold standard. Results KCMEO investigated 2480 deaths; 1389 underwent routine toxicology testing, and 361 were toxicologically confirmed drug overdoses from opioid, stimulant, or euphoric drugs. Sensitivity of the probable overdose classification was 83%, positive predictive value was 89%, specificity was 96%, and negative predictive value was 94%. Probable overdoses were classified a median of 1 day after the event, whereas the final death certificate confirming an overdose was received by KCMEO an average of 63 days after the event. Conclusions King County MEs’ probable overdose classification provides a near–real-time indicator of fatal drug overdoses, which can guide rapid local public health responses to the drug overdose epidemic.

The Role of Citizen Science in Promoting Health Equity

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisa G. Rosas ◽  
Patricia Rodriguez Espinosa ◽  
Felipe Montes Jimenez ◽  
Abby C. King
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Citizen Science ◽  
Health Equity ◽  
Healthy Eating ◽  
Mobile Applications ◽  
Health Inequities ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Scientific Process

While there are many definitions of citizen science, the term usually refers to the participation of the general public in the scientific process in collaboration with professional scientists. Citizen scientists have been engaged to promote health equity, especially in the areas of environmental contaminant exposures, physical activity, and healthy eating. Citizen scientists commonly come from communities experiencing health inequities and have collected data using a range of strategies and technologies, such as air sensors, water quality kits, and mobile applications. On the basis of our review, and to advance the field of citizen science to address health equity, we recommend ( a) expanding the focus on topics important for health equity, ( b) increasing the diversity of people serving as citizen scientists, ( c) increasing the integration of citizen scientists in additional research phases, ( d) continuing to leverage emerging technologies that enable citizen scientists to collect data relevant for health equity, and ( e) strengthening the rigor of methods to evaluate impacts on health equity. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health, Volume 43 is April 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

The Recent Rise of Suicide Mortality in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 43 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Gonzalo Martínez-Alés ◽  
Tammy Jiang ◽  
Katherine M. Keyes ◽  
Jaimie L. Gradus
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
United States ◽  
Suicide Risk ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Concern ◽  
Suicide Mortality ◽  
Annual Review ◽  
Publication Date ◽  
Suicide Rates ◽  
Subsequent Decrease

Suicide is a major public health concern in the United States. Between 2000 and 2018, US suicide rates increased by 35%, contributing to the stagnation and subsequent decrease in US life expectancy. During 2019, suicide declined modestly, mostly owing to slight reductions in suicides among Whites. Suicide rates, however, continued to increase or remained stable among all other racial/ethnic groups, and little is known about recent suicide trends among other vulnerable groups. This article ( a) summarizes US suicide mortality trends over the twentieth and early twenty-first centuries, ( b) reviews potential group-level causes of increased suicide risk among subpopulations characterized by markers of vulnerability to suicide, and ( c) advocates for combining recent advances in population-based suicide prevention with a socially conscious perspective that captures the social, economic, and political contexts in which suicide risk unfolds over the life course of vulnerable individuals. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Public Health, Volume 43 is April 2022. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Complex multi-system illnesses occurring within a family: Presumptive evidence for an infectious disease process

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-36
Author(s):  
W John Martin
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Disease Process ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Chronic Fatigue ◽  
Learning Disorders ◽  
Infectious Agents ◽  
Definitive Evidence ◽  
Fatigue Syndrome ◽  
Neuropsychiatric Manifestations

Society is witnessing an increasing incidence of illnesses with neuropsychiatric manifestations. Prominent examples include autism and learning disorders in children, depression and chronic fatigue syndrome in adults and neurodegenerative diseases in the elderly. Although clinically diverse, all of these illnesses could be contributed to by infectious agents. If so, one might expect to trace the occurrence and progression of various brain damaging illnesses among various family members. An example of this occurring in three generations of a family was unsuccessfully submitted for publication in another journal 2015; in part because of its Public Health implications. It is submitted to this journal because of definitive evidence for the transmission to humans of infectious cellular sequences incorporated into monkey-derived stealth adapted viruses.

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