scholarly journals Maximum Likelihood Inference for Univariate Delay Differential Equation Models with Multiple Delays

Complexity ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 2017 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Ahmed A. Mahmoud ◽  
Sarat C. Dass ◽  
Mohana S. Muthuvalu ◽  
Vijanth S. Asirvadam

This article presents statistical inference methodology based on maximum likelihoods for delay differential equation models in the univariate setting. Maximum likelihood inference is obtained for single and multiple unknown delay parameters as well as other parameters of interest that govern the trajectories of the delay differential equation models. The maximum likelihood estimator is obtained based on adaptive grid and Newton-Raphson algorithms. Our methodology estimates correctly the delay parameters as well as other unknown parameters (such as the initial starting values) of the dynamical system based on simulation data. We also develop methodology to compute the information matrix and confidence intervals for all unknown parameters based on the likelihood inferential framework. We present three illustrative examples related to biological systems. The computations have been carried out with help of mathematical software: MATLAB® 8.0 R2014b.

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (21) ◽  
pp. 7869 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jose de la Luz Sosa ◽  
Daniel Olvera-Trejo ◽  
Gorka Urbikain ◽  
Oscar Martinez-Romero ◽  
Alex Elías-Zúñiga ◽  
...  

In this work, a new method for solving a delay differential equation (DDE) with multiple delays is presented by using second- and third-order polynomials to approximate the delayed terms using the enhanced homotopy perturbation method (EMHPM). To study the proposed method performance in terms of convergency and computational cost in comparison with the first-order EMHPM, semi-discretization and full-discretization methods, a delay differential equation that model the cutting milling operation process was used. To further assess the accuracy of the proposed method, a milling process with a multivariable cutter is examined in order to find the stability boundaries. Then, theoretical predictions are computed from the corresponding DDE finding uncharted stable zones at high axial depths of cut. Time-domain simulations based on continuous wavelet transform (CWT) scalograms, power spectral density (PSD) charts and Poincaré maps (PM) were employed to validate the stability lobes found by using the third-order EMHPM for the multivariable tool.


1973 ◽  
Vol 30 (7) ◽  
pp. 939-945 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilbert G. Walter

Two new "simple" fishery models based on delay-differential equations are introduced and compared to three currently used differential equation models. These new models can account for reproductive lag and allow oscillatory behavior of population biomass, but require only catch and effort data for their application. Equilibrium levels are calculated for both models and examples of various types of growth curves are given. Levels of fishing effort which maximize yield are calculated and found in one case to depend on the previous population and in the other to be constant.


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