Analysis of Mean Climate Conditions in Senegal (1971–98)

2006 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-40 ◽  
Author(s):  
Souleymane Fall ◽  
Dev Niyogi ◽  
Fredrick H. M. Semazzi
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions

Abstract This paper presents a GIS-based analysis of climate variability over Senegal, West Africa. It responds to the need for developing a climate atlas that uses local observations instead of gridded global analyses. Monthly readings of observed rainfall (20 stations) and mean temperature (12 stations) were compiled, digitized, and quality assured for a period from 1971 to 1998. The monthly, seasonal, and annual temperature and precipitation distributions were mapped and analyzed using ArcGIS Spatial Analyst. A north–south gradient in rainfall and an east–west gradient in temperature variations were observed. June exhibits the greatest variability for both quantity of rainfall and number of rainy days, especially in the western and northern parts of the country. Trends in precipitation and temperature were studied using a linear regression analysis and interpolation maps. Air temperature showed a positive and significant warming trend throughout the country, except in the southeast. A significant correlation is found between the temperature index for Senegal and the Pacific sea surface temperatures during the January–April period, especially in the El Niño zone. In contrast to earlier regional-scale studies, precipitation does not show a negative trend and has remained largely unchanged, with a few locations showing a positive trend, particularly in the northeastern and southwestern regions. This study reveals a need for more localized climate analyses of the West Africa region because local climate variations are not always captured by large-scale analysis, and such variations can alter conclusions related to regional climate change.

Summer Nonconvective Severe Wind Frequency over Ontario and Its Correlation with Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (5) ◽  
pp. 1170-1182 ◽  
Author(s):  
Da-Lin Zhang ◽  
Zuohao Cao ◽  
Jianmin Ma ◽  
Aiming Wu
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Kendall Test ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
Climate Conditions

AbstractThe summer nonconvective severe surface wind (NCSSW) frequency over Ontario, Canada, in relation to regional climate conditions and tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during the period of 1979–2006 is examined using surface wind reports and large-scale analysis data. A statistically robust positive trend in Ontario summer NCSSW frequency is identified using three independent statistical approaches, which include the conventional linear regression that has little disturbance to the original time series, the Mann–Kendall test without a lag-1 autoregressive process, and the Monte Carlo simulation. A composite analysis of the large-scale monthly mean data reveals that the high- (low-) NCSSW occurrence years are linked to stronger (weaker) large-scale horizontal pressure gradients and more (less) intensive vector wind anomalies in the upper troposphere. Unlike the low-event years, anomalous anticyclonic circulations are found at 500 and 250 hPa in the high-event years, which are conducive to downward momentum transport and favorable for severe surface wind development. It is also found that the summer NCSSW occurs more frequently under the conditions of warmer surface air temperature over Ontario. Further analyses indicate that an increase in the summer NCSSW frequency is well correlated with an increase in the previous winter SSTs over the eastern equatorial Pacific, namely, in the Niño-1+2 and Niño-3 areas, through a decrease in sea level pressure over northern Ontario and an increase in surface air temperature over central and southern Ontario.

scholarly journals Effects of climate variability on savannah fire regimes in West Africa

2015 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 161-174 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. T. N'Datchoh ◽  
A. Konaré ◽  
A. Diedhiou ◽  
A. Diawara ◽  
E. Quansah ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Fire Regimes ◽  
Burned Area ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Burned Areas ◽  
Seasonal Analysis ◽  
Biomass Availability

Abstract. The main objective of this work is to investigate at regional scale the variability in burned areas over the savannahs of West Africa and their links with the rainfall and the large-scale climatic indexes such as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and sea surface temperature gradient (SSTG). Daily satellite products (L3JRC) of burned areas from the SPOT Vegetation sensor at a moderate spatial resolution of 1 km x 1 km between 2000 and 2007 were analyzed over the West African savannah in this paper. Results from seasonal analysis revealed a large increase in burned areas from November to February, with consistent peaks in December at the regional scale. In addition, about 30% of the pixels are burned at least four times within the 7-year period. Positive correlations were found between burned areas and rainfall values obtained from the TRMM satellite over savannahs located above 8° N, meaning that a wet rainfall season over these regions was favorable to biomass availability in the next dry season and therefore may induce an increase in burned areas in this region. Moreover, our results showed a nonlinear relationship between the large-scale climatic indexes SOI, MEI, NAO and SSTG and burned-area anomalies. Positive (negative) correlations between burned areas and SOI (MEI) were consistent over the Sahel and Sudano-Sahelian areas. Negative correlations with Atlantic SSTG were significant over the Guinea subregion. Correlations between burned areas over Sudano-Guinean subregion and all the large-scale indexes were weak and may be explained by the fact that this subregion had a mean rainfall greater than 800 mm yr−1 with permanent biomass availability and an optimal amount of soil moisture favorable to fire practice irrespective of the climate conditions. The teleconnection with NAO was not clear and needed to be investigated further.

scholarly journals Holocene changes in African vegetation: tradeoff between climate and water availability

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 681-686 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Hély ◽  
A.-M. Lézine ◽  
APD contributors
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Plant Distribution ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Plants ◽  
Plant Migration ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Instrumental Records

Abstract. Although past climate change is well documented in West Africa through instrumental records, modeling activities, and paleo-data, little is known about regional-scale ecosystem vulnerability and long-term impacts of climate on plant distribution and biodiversity. Here we use paleohydrological and paleobotanical data to discuss the relation between available surface water, monsoon rainfall and vegetation distribution in West Africa during the Holocene. The individual patterns of plant migration or community shifts in latitude are explained by differences among tolerance limits of species to rainfall amount and seasonality. Using the probability density function methodology, we show here that the widespread development of lakes, wetlands and rivers at the time of the "Green Sahara" played an additional role in forming a network of topographically defined water availability, allowing for tropical plants to migrate north from 15 to 24° N (reached ca. 9 cal ka BP). The analysis of the spatio–temporal changes in biodiversity, through both pollen occurrence and richness, shows that the core of the tropical rainbelt associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone was centered at 15–20° N during the early Holocene wet period, with comparatively drier/more seasonal climate conditions south of 15° N.

Plan for the development of specialized climate forecasting in NEACC

2021 ◽  
pp. 101-111
Author(s):  
S.V. Emelina ◽  
◽  
V.M. Khan ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Optimal Strategies ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Climate Risks ◽  
The North ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
North Eurasia

The possibility of developing specialized seasonal forecasting within the framework of the North Eurasia Climate Centre is discussed. The purpose of these forecasts is to access the impacts of significant large-scale anomalies of meteorological elements on various economic sectors for the timely informing of government services and private businesses to select optimal strategies for planning preventive measures. A brief overview of the groups of climatic risks in the context of the impacts on the socio-economic sphere is given according to the Russian and foreign bibliographic sources. Examples of the activities of some Regional Climate Centers that produce forecast information with an assessment of possible impacts of weather and climate conditions at seasonal scales on various human activities are given. Keywords: climate services, regional climate forums, weather and climate risks, North Eurasia Climate Centre

Skill assessment of post-processing methods for ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecasts over Europe

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alice Crespi ◽  
Marcello Petitta ◽  
Lucas Grigis ◽  
Paola Marson ◽  
Jean-Michel Soubeyroux ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Production Management ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Research Field ◽  
Skill Assessment ◽  
Post Processing ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions

<p>Seasonal forecasts provide information on climate conditions several months ahead and therefore they could represent a valuable support for decision making, warning systems as well as for the optimization of industry and energy sectors. However, forecast systems can be affected by systematic biases and have horizontal resolutions which are typically coarser than the spatial scales of the practical applications. For this reason, the reliability of forecasts needs to be carefully assessed before applying and interpreting them for specific applications. In addition, the use of post-processing approaches is recommended in order to improve the representativeness of the large-scale predictions of regional and local climate conditions. The development and evaluation downscaling and bias-correction procedures aiming at improving the skills of the forecasts and the quality of derived climate services is currently an open research field. In this context, we evaluated the skills of ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts of monthly mean temperature, total precipitation and wind speed over Europe and we assessed the skill improvements of calibrated predictions.</p><p>For the calibration, we combined a bilinear interpolation and a quantile mapping approach to obtain corrected monthly forecasts on a 0.25°x0.25° grid from the original 1°x1° values. The forecasts were corrected against the reference ERA5 reanalysis over the hindcast period 1993–2016. The processed forecasts were compared over the same domain and period with another calibrated set of ECMWF SEAS5 forecasts obtained by the ADAMONT statistical method.</p><p>The skill assessment was performed by means of both deterministic and probabilistic verification metrics evaluated over seasonal forecasted aggregations for the first lead time. Greater skills of the forecast systems in Europe were generally observed in spring and summer, especially for temperature, with a spatial distribution varying with the seasons. The calibration was proved to effectively correct the model biases for all variables, however the metrics not accounting for bias did not show significant improvements in most cases, and in some areas and seasons even small degradations in skills were observed.</p><p>The presented study supported the activities of the H2020 European project SECLI-FIRM on the improvement of the seasonal forecast applicability for energy production, management and assessment.</p>

scholarly journals Fifty-Seven-Year California Reanalysis Downscaling at 10 km (CaRD10). Part I: System Detail and Validation with Observations

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (22) ◽  
pp. 5553-5571 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masao Kanamitsu ◽  
Hideki Kanamaru
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Lateral Boundary ◽  
Climate Change Research ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Precipitation Analysis

Abstract For the purpose of producing datasets for regional-scale climate change research and application, the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis for the period 1948–2005 was dynamically downscaled to hourly, 10-km resolution over California using the Regional Spectral Model. This is Part I of a two-part paper, describing the details of the downscaling system and comparing the downscaled analysis [California Reanalysis Downscaling at 10 km (CaRD10)] against observation and global analysis. An extensive validation of the downscaled analysis was performed using station observations, Higgins gridded precipitation analysis, and Precipitation-Elevation Regression on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) precipitation analysis. In general, the CaRD10 near-surface wind and temperature fit better to regional-scale station observations than the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis used to force the regional model, supporting the premise that the regional downscaling is a viable method to attain regional detail from large-scale analysis. This advantage of CaRD10 was found on all time scales, ranging from hourly to decadal scales (i.e., from diurnal variation to multidecadal trend). Dynamically downscaled analysis provides ways to study various regional climate phenomena of different time scales because all produced variables are dynamically, physically, and hydrologically consistent. However, the CaRD10 is not free from problems. It suffers from positive bias in precipitation for heavy precipitation events. The CaRD10 is inaccurate near the lateral boundary where regional detail is damped by the lateral boundary relaxation. It is important to understand these limitations before the downscaled analysis is used for research.

The influence of termite-induced heterogeneity on savanna vegetation along a climatic gradient in West Africa

2012 ◽  
Vol 29 (1) ◽  
pp. 11-23 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arne Erpenbach ◽  
Markus Bernhardt-Römermann ◽  
Rüdiger Wittig ◽  
Adjima Thiombiano ◽  
Karen Hahn
Keyword(s):  
West Africa ◽  
Plant Species ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Soil Conditions ◽  
Soil Parameters ◽  
Climatic Gradient ◽  
Termite Mound ◽  
Savanna Vegetation ◽  
Bioclimatic Variables

Abstract:Termites are renowned ecosystem engineers. Their mounds have been described as an important element of savanna vegetation dynamics, but little is known about their large-scale impact on vegetation composition. To investigate the influence of termite-induced heterogeneity in savannas along a climatic gradient in West Africa termite mound vegetation was compared with adjacent savanna vegetation using 256 paired plots (size of the termite mound and a corresponding savanna area) in five protected areas from northern Burkina Faso to northern Benin. On each plot vegetation and soil sampling was performed. Additionally bioclimatic variables from the WORLDCLIM database were used. The vegetation on the mounds and the surrounding savanna differed within all study sites (DCA length of gradient 3.85 SD) and showed complete turnover along the climatic gradient (DCA length of gradient 5.99 SD). Differences between mounds and savanna were significantly related to termite-induced changes in soil parameters, specifically clay enrichment and increased cation concentrations (base saturation). On a local scale, termite-induced differences in soil conditions were found to be the most important factor affecting mound vegetation, while on a regional scale, annual precipitation showed the strongest significant correlations. However, with increasing precipitation, differences between mounds and the surrounding matrix became more pronounced, and the contribution of mounds to local phytodiversity increased. Eleven plant species were identified as characteristic termite mound species. In the more humid parts of the gradient, more characteristic plant species were found that may benefit from favourable soil conditions, good water availability, and a low fire impact in the mound microhabitat.

A Homogeneous Record (1896–2006) of Daily Weather and Climate at Mohonk Lake, New York*

2010 ◽  
Vol 49 (3) ◽  
pp. 544-555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin I. Cook ◽  
Edward R. Cook ◽  
Kevin J. Anchukaitis ◽  
Paul C. Huth ◽  
John E. Thompson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
Daily Weather ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Distinct Features ◽  
Maximum Minimum

Abstract Reliable, long-term records of daily weather and climate are relatively rare but are crucial for understanding long-term trends and variability in extreme events and other climate metrics that are not resolvable at the monthly time scale. Here, the distinct features of a continuous, long-term (1896–2006) daily weather record from Mohonk Lake, New York, are highlighted. The site is optimal for daily climate analyses, since it has experienced negligible land-use change, no station moves, and has maintained methodological and instrumental consistency over the entire period of record. Unlike many sites, the site has always used maximum/minimum thermometers rather than shifting to the automated Maximum/Minimum Temperature Sensor. Notable results from the analysis of this record include 1) a warming trend driven largely by trends in maximum temperatures, especially during summer, 2) increasing diurnal temperature range during summer, and 3) a reduction in the number of freeze-days per year with little change in the length of the freeze-free season. These findings deviate from some regional level trends, suggesting there may be value in revisiting selected, consistently monitored, and maintained stations similar to Mohonk for focused analyses of regional climate change.

Defining Climate Zone of Borneo based on Cluster Analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zulfaqar Sa'adi ◽  
Shamsuddin Shahid ◽  
Mohammed Sanusi Shiru
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Climate Classification ◽  
Climate Zones ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Tropical Regions ◽  
Related Development ◽  
Climatic Characteristic

Abstract Although Borneo Island is one of the most vulnerable tropical regions to climate change, maps depicting the local climate conditions employing climate classification are still not well defined. The present study attempted regional climate classification to divide the Borneo region into several homogenous groups based on long-term average climate behavior. Daily gridded rainfall and temperature (Tavg, Tmax, and Tmin) data at 0.25o resolution spanning 56-years (1960−2016) was used. The classification was done using non-hierarchical k-mean and several hierarchical methods, namely, Single, Complete, McQuitty, Average, Centroid, Median, and two algorithms of Ward's method, wardD, and wardD2. The results showed that k-mean, wardD, and wardD2 were able to classify the climate of Borneo into four zones, namely 'Dry and hot' (DH), 'Wet and hot' (WH), 'Wet' (W), and 'Wet and cold' (WC) with a considerable difference at the boundaries. Spatial relevancy, stability, and variability of the clusters based on correlation and compromise programming showed that the wardD method was the most likely to yield acceptable results with optimum 4-cluster to partition the area into four principal climate zones. The constructed cluster plot, centroid plot, and probability distribution function (PDF) showed a distinct climatic characteristic between the climate zones in terms of rainfall, temperature, and seasonality. The proposed climate zonation for Borneo can help in better understanding climate regionality and climate-related development planning.

Understanding the link between sea ice, ice scour and Antarctic benthic biodiversity–the need for cross-station and international collaboration

Polar Record ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-152 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Deregibus ◽  
M.L. Quartino ◽  
K. Zacher ◽  
G.L. Campana ◽  
D.K.A. Barnes
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Scale ◽  
Scale Up ◽  
Biological Response ◽  
Regional Climate Change ◽  
Physical Change ◽  
Sea Temperature ◽  
Ecosystem Responses ◽  
Antarctic Species

ABSTRACTThe western Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is a hotspot of rapid recent regional ‘climate change’. This has resulted in a 0.4°C rise in sea temperature in the last 50 years, five days of sea ice lost per decade and increased ice scouring in the shallows. The WAP shallows are ideal for studying the biological response to physical change because most known Antarctic species are benthic, physical change occurs mainly in the shallows and most research stations are coastal. Studies at Rothera Station have found increased benthic disturbance with losses of winter sea ice and assemblage-level changes coincident with this ice scouring. Such studies are difficult to scale up as they depend on SCUBA diving – a very spatially limited technique. Here we report attempts to broaden the understanding of benthic ecosystem responses to physical change by replicating the Rothera experimental grids at Carlini Station through collaboration between the UK, Argentina and Germany across Signy, Rothera and Carlini stations. We argue that such collaborations are the way forward towards understanding the big picture of biota responses to physical climate changes at a regional scale.

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