scholarly journals Major Over- and Underestimation of Drought Found in NOAA’s Climate Divisional SPI Dataset

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (9) ◽  
pp. 1469-1480
Author(s):  
Daniela Spade ◽  
Kirsten de Beurs ◽  
Mark Shafer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Computational Procedure ◽  
The United States ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Calibration Period ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

AbstractEvaluation of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) dataset published monthly in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/National Centers for Environmental Information (NOAA/NCEI) climate divisional database revealed that drought frequency is being mischaracterized in climate divisions across the United States. The 3- and 6-month September SPI values were downloaded from the database for all years between 1931 and 2019; the SPI was also calculated for the same time scales and span of years following the SPI method laid out by NOAA/NCEI. Drought frequency is characterized as the total number of years that the SPI fell below −1. SPI values across 1931–90, the calibration period cited by NOAA/NCEI, showed regional patterns in climate divisions that are biased toward or away from drought, according to the average values of the SPI. For both time scales examined, the majority of the climate divisions in the central, Midwest, and northeastern United States showed negative averages, indicating bias toward drought, whereas climate divisions in the western United States, the northern Midwest, and parts of the Southeast and Texas had positive averages, indicating bias away from drought. The standard deviation of the SPI also differed from the expected value of 1. These regional patterns in the NCEI’s SPI values are the result of a different (sliding) calibration period, 1895–2019, instead of the cited standardized period of 1931–90. The authors recommend that the NCEI modify its SPI computational procedure to reflect the best practices identified in the benchmark papers, namely, a fixed baseline period.

scholarly journals Effects of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation on Drought Impacts in the United States

2015 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-272 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brent Boehlert ◽  
Ellen Fitzgerald ◽  
James E. Neumann ◽  
Kenneth M. Strzepek ◽  
Jeremy Martinich
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Drought Frequency ◽  
Ghg Mitigation

Abstract The authors present a method for analyzing the economic benefits to the United States resulting from changes in drought frequency and severity due to global greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. The method begins by constructing reduced-form models of the effect of drought on agriculture and reservoir recreation in the contiguous United States. These relationships are then applied to drought projections based on two climate stabilization scenarios and two twenty-first-century time periods. Drought indices are sector specific and include both the standardized precipitation index and the Palmer drought severity index. It is found that the modeled regional effects of drought on each sector are negative, almost always statistically significant, and often large in magnitude. These results confirm that drought has been an important driver of historical reductions in economic activity in these sectors. Comparing a reference climate scenario to two GHG mitigation scenarios in 2050 and 2100, the authors find that, for the agricultural sector, mitigation reduces both drought incidence and damages through its effects on temperature and precipitation, despite regional differences in the sign and magnitude of effects under certain model scenarios. The current annual damages of drought across all sectors have been estimated at $6–$8 billion (U.S. dollars), but this analysis shows that average annual benefits of GHG mitigation to the U.S. agricultural sector alone reach $980 million by 2050 and upward of $2.2 billion by 2100. Benefits to reservoir recreation depend on reservoir location and data availability. Economic benefits of GHG mitigation are highest in the southwestern United States, where drought frequency is projected to increase most dramatically in the absence of GHG mitigation policies.

Variability and Transitions in Precipitation Extremes in the Midwest United States

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Trent W. Ford ◽  
Liang Chen ◽  
Justin T. Schoof
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mississippi River ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Precipitation Extremes ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Midwest United States ◽  
Upper Mississippi River Basin ◽  
Midwest Region ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index

AbstractMonthly to seasonal precipitation extremes, both flood and drought, are important components of regional climates worldwide, and are the subjects of numerous investigations. However, variability in and transition between precipitation extremes, and associated impacts are the subject of far fewer studies. Recent such events in the Midwest region of the United States, such as the 2011-12 flood to drought transition in the upper Mississippi River Basin and the flood to drought transition experienced in parts of Kentucky, Ohio, Indiana, and Illinois in 2019 have sparked concerns of increased variability and rapid transitions between precipitation extremes and compounded economic and environmental impacts. In response to these concerns, this study focuses on characterizing variability and change in Midwest precipitation extremes and transitions between extremes over the last 70 years. Overall we find that the Midwest as a region has gotten wetter over the last seven decades, and that in general the annual maximum and median wetness, defined using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), have increased at a larger magnitude than the annual minimum. We find large areas of the southern Midwest have experienced a significant increase in the annual SPI range and associated magnitude of transition between annual maximum and minimum SPI. We additionally find wet to dry transitions between extremes have largely increased in speed (i.e., less time between extremes), while long-term changes in transition frequency are more regional within the Midwest.

scholarly journals Hydrological response to different time scales of climatological drought: an evaluation of the Standardized Precipitation Index in a mountainous Mediterranean basin

2005 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 523-533 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. M. Vicente-Serrano ◽  
J. I. López-Moreno
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Precipitation Index ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrological Droughts ◽  
Different Time Scales

Abstract. At present, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is the most widely used drought index to provide good estimations about the intensity, magnitude and spatial extent of droughts. The main advantage of the SPI in comparison with other indices is the fact that the SPI enables both determination of drought conditions at different time scales and monitoring of different drought types. It is widely accepted that SPI time scales affect different sub-systems in the hydrological cycle due to the fact that the response of the different water usable sources to precipitation shortages can be very different. The long time scales of SPI are related to hydrological droughts (river flows and reservoir storages). Nevertheless, few analyses empirically verify these statements or the usefulness of the SPI time scales to monitor drought. In this paper, the SPI at different time scales is compared with surface hydrological variables in a big closed basin located in the central Spanish Pyrenees. We provide evidence about the way in which the longer (>12 months) SPI time scales may not be useful for drought quantification in this area. In general, the surface flows respond to short SPI time scales whereas the reservoir storages respond to longer time scales (7–10 months). Nevertheless, important seasonal differences can be identified in the SPI-usable water sources relationships. This suggests that it is necessary to test the drought indices and time scales in relation to their usefulness for monitoring different drought types under different environmental conditions and water demand situations.

scholarly journals The Evaporative Demand Drought Index. Part II: CONUS-Wide Assessment against Common Drought Indicators

2016 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1763-1779 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. McEvoy ◽  
Justin L. Huntington ◽  
Michael T. Hobbins ◽  
Andrew Wood ◽  
Charles Morton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Drought Index ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Stress Index ◽  
Multiple Time Scales ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
Hydrologic Drought

Abstract Precipitation, soil moisture, and air temperature are the most commonly used climate variables to monitor drought; however, other climatic factors such as solar radiation, wind speed, and humidity can be important drivers in the depletion of soil moisture and evolution and persistence of drought. This work assesses the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) at multiple time scales for several hydroclimates as the second part of a two-part study. EDDI and individual evaporative demand components were examined as they relate to the dynamic evolution of flash drought over the central United States, characterization of hydrologic drought over the western United States, and comparison to commonly used drought metrics of the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSI), and the evaporative stress index (ESI). Two main advantages of EDDI over other drought indices are that it is independent of precipitation (similar to ESI) and it can be decomposed to identify the role individual evaporative drivers have on drought onset and persistence. At short time scales, spatial distributions and time series results illustrate that EDDI often indicates drought onset well in advance of the USDM, SPI, and SSI. Results illustrate the benefits of physically based evaporative demand estimates and demonstrate EDDI’s utility and effectiveness in an easy-to-implement agricultural early warning and long-term hydrologic drought–monitoring tool with potential applications in seasonal forecasting and fire-weather monitoring.

scholarly journals Relations between Temperature and Residential Natural Gas Consumption in the Central and Eastern United States

2007 ◽  
Vol 46 (11) ◽  
pp. 1993-2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reed P. Timmer ◽  
Peter J. Lamb
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
The United States ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum Temperature ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
The South ◽  
Northern Regions ◽  
Gas Consumption

Abstract The increased U.S. natural gas price volatility since the mid-to-late-1980s deregulation generally is attributed to the deregulated market being more sensitive to temperature-related residential demand. This study therefore quantifies relations between winter (November–February; December–February) temperature and residential gas consumption for the United States east of the Rocky Mountains for 1989–2000, by region and on monthly and seasonal time scales. State-level monthly gas consumption data are aggregated for nine multistate subregions of three Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts of the U.S. Department of Energy. Two temperature indices [days below percentile (DBP) and heating degree-days (HDD)] are developed using the Richman–Lamb fine-resolution (∼1° latitude–longitude) set of daily maximum and minimum temperatures for 1949–2000. Temperature parameters/values that maximize DBP/HDD correlations with gas consumption are identified. Maximum DBP and HDD correlations with gas consumption consistently are largest in the Great Lakes–Ohio Valley region on both monthly (from +0.89 to +0.91) and seasonal (from +0.93 to +0.97) time scales, for which they are based on daily maximum temperature. Such correlations are markedly lower on both time scales (from +0.62 to +0.80) in New England, where gas is less important than heating oil, and on the monthly scale (from +0.55 to +0.75) across the South because of low January correlations. For the South, maximum correlations are for daily DBP and HDD indices based on mean or minimum temperature. The percentiles having the highest DBP index correlations with gas consumption are slightly higher for northern regions than across the South. This is because lower (higher) relative (absolute) temperature thresholds are reached in warmer regions before home heating occurs. However, these optimum percentiles for all regions are bordered broadly by surrounding percentiles for which the correlations are almost as high as the maximum. This consistency establishes the robustness of the temperature–gas consumption relations obtained. The reference temperatures giving the highest HDD correlations with gas consumption are lower for the colder northern regions than farther south where the temperature range is truncated. However, all HDD reference temperatures greater than +10°C (+15°C) yield similar such correlations for northern (southern) regions, further confirming the robustness of the findings. This robustness, coupled with the very high correlation magnitudes obtained, suggests that potentially strong gas consumption predictability would follow from accurate seasonal temperature forecasts.

Social Stress in the United States: Links to Regional Patterns in Crime and Illness

1987 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 881
Author(s):  
T. L. Scheid-Cook ◽  
Arnold S. Linsky ◽  
Murray A. Straus
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Stress ◽  
The United States ◽  
Regional Patterns

An Evaluation of Multiscalar Drought Indices in Nevada and Eastern California

2012 ◽  
Vol 16 (18) ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel J. McEvoy ◽  
Justin L. Huntington ◽  
John T. Abatzoglou ◽  
Laura M. Edwards
Keyword(s):  
Great Basin ◽  
Arid Regions ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
The United States ◽  
Drought Indices ◽  
Reservoir Water ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Simple Term ◽  
The Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Hydrologic Drought

Abstract Nevada and eastern California are home to some of the driest and warmest climates, most mountainous regions, and fastest growing metropolitan areas of the United States. Throughout Nevada and eastern California, snow-dominated watersheds provide most of the water supply for both human and environmental demands. Increasing demands on finite water supplies have resulted in the need to better monitor drought and its associated hydrologic and agricultural impacts. Two multiscalar drought indices, the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI), are evaluated over Nevada and eastern California regions of the Great Basin using standardized streamflow, lake, and reservoir water surface stages to quantify wet and dry periods. Results show that both metrics are significantly correlated to surface water availability, with SPEI showing slightly higher correlations over SPI, suggesting that the inclusion of a simple term for atmospheric demand in SPEI is useful for characterizing hydrologic drought in arid regions. These results also highlight the utility of multiscalar drought indices as a proxy for summer groundwater discharge and baseflow periods.

Epidemiology and mortality of metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) in a managed care population in the United States.

2020 ◽  
Vol 38 (15_suppl) ◽  
pp. e13592-e13592 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katrine Wallace ◽  
Adrienne Landsteiner ◽  
Scott Bunner ◽  
Nicole Engel-Nitz ◽  
Amy Luckenbaugh
Keyword(s):  
Prostate Cancer ◽  
United States ◽  
Index Date ◽  
The United States ◽  
Baseline Period ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Administrative Claims ◽  
Claims Database ◽  
Study Population

e13592 Background: To date, there has been a paucity of information in the literature describing the epidemiology of mCRPC within the prostate cancer population. We present a real-world data study describing characteristics and mortality of patients with mCRPC within an administrative claims database of an insured population within the United States. Methods: In an administrative claims database of ≈18,000,000 covered lives, adult male patients were included if they had ≥1 claim for prostate cancer (ICD-9: 185 or 233.4; ICD-10: C61 or D075), underwent pharmacologic or surgical castration, and had a code for metastatic disease during the identification period (January 1, 2008–March 31, 2018). The index date was the first metastatic claim; 6 months of continuous enrollment (CE) prior to (baseline period) and after (follow-up period) the index date was required. Patients with metastatic claims in the baseline period were excluded. Patients were followed until the earliest of: death (unless prior to the 6-month CE), end of study period, or disenrollment. A claims-based algorithm was employed to identify locally advanced and distant mCRPC patients in the prostate cancer study population. Mortality data were sourced from the Social Security Administration Medicare data, and a claims algorithm. Results: 343,089 patients were identified with a claim for prostate cancer; of those, 3690 mCRPC cases (1.1%) were identified using the claims-based algorithm and met the study inclusion criteria. Median age was 75 years. Insurance type included commercial plans (27%) and Medicare (73%). Castration type included pharmacologic (99%) and surgical (1%). First claims for metastases were most commonly in the bone (65%) or lymph nodes (15%), with 20% in other sites. The study population averaged a Charlson comorbidity index score of 3.05 at baseline, with 16% of patients receiving a score of ≥5. The most common baseline comorbidities were hypertension (67%), urinary disease (58%), dyslipidemia (52%), and cardiac disease (45%). Median follow-up time among the mCRPC group was 538 days, during which 1834 deaths occurred; 50% of the population experienced mortality during the study period. Conclusions: This study provides valuable insights into the epidemiology, clinical characteristics, prevalence rate, and mortality of patients with mCRPC. Given the high mortality proportion of this disease, the development of novel therapies to prolong life in patients with mCRPC is warranted.

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