scholarly journals Predictability of the California Niño/Niña*

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (18) ◽  
pp. 7237-7249 ◽  
Author(s):  
Takeshi Doi ◽  
Chaoxia Yuan ◽  
Swadhin K. Behera ◽  
Toshio Yamagata
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Basin Scale

Abstract Predictability of a recently discovered regional coupled climate mode called the California Niño (Niña) off Baja California and California is explored using a seasonal prediction system based on the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier, version 1 (SINTEX-F1) coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. Because of the skillful prediction of basin-scale El Niño (La Niña), the California Niño (Niña) that co-occurs with El Niño (La Niña) with a peak in boreal winter is found to be predictable at least a couple of seasons ahead. On the other hand, the regional coupled phenomenon peaking in boreal summer without co-occurrence with El Niño (La Niña) is difficult to predict. The difficulty in predicting such an intrinsic regional climate phenomenon may be due to model deficiency in resolving the regional air–sea–land positive feedback processes. The model may also underestimate coastal Kelvin waves with a small offshore scale, which may play an important role in the generation of the California Niño/Niña. It may be improved by increasing horizontal resolution of the ocean component of the coupled model. The present study may provide a guideline to improve seasonal prediction of regional climate modes for important industrial as well as social applications.

scholarly journals Seasonal Forecasting in the Pacific Using the Coupled Model POAMA-2

2013 ◽  
Vol 28 (3) ◽  
pp. 668-680 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Cottrill ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Eun-Pa Lim ◽  
Sally Langford ◽  
Kay Shelton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
La Nina

Abstract The development of a dynamical model seasonal prediction service for island nations in the tropical South Pacific is described. The forecast model is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's Predictive Ocean–Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA), a dynamical seasonal forecast system. Using a hindcast set for the period 1982–2006, POAMA is shown to provide skillful forecasts of El Niño and La Niña many months in advance and, because the model faithfully simulates the spatial and temporal variability of rainfall associated with displacements of the southern Pacific convergence zone (SPCZ) and ITCZ during La Niña and El Niño, it also provides good predictions of rainfall throughout the tropical Pacific region. The availability of seasonal forecasts from POAMA should be beneficial to Pacific island countries for the production of regional climate outlooks across the region.

scholarly journals The Influence of Wind-Induced Waves on ENSO Simulations

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 457
Author(s):  
Yao Hu ◽  
Xiaoxiao Tan ◽  
Youmin Tang ◽  
Zheqi Shen ◽  
Ying Bao
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Heat Budget ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Wave Model ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Wave Induced

We evaluated the influence of wind-induced waves on El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) simulations based on the First Institute of Oceanography-Earth System Model version 2 (FIO-ESM 2.0), a global coupled general circulation model (GCM) with a wave component. Two sets of experiments, the GCM, with and without a wave model, respectively, were conducted in parallel. The simulated sea surface temperature (SST) was cooled by introducing the wave model via the enhancement of the vertical mixing in the ocean upper layer. The strength of ENSO was intensified and better simulated with the inclusion of wave-induced mixing, particularly the La Niña amplitude. Furthermore, the simulated amplitude and spatial pattern of El Niño events were slightly altered with the wave model. Heat budget analyses revealed the intensification of La Niña events to be generally attributed to wave-induced vertical advection, followed by the zonal and meridional advection terms.

scholarly journals Sudden stratospheric warmings during El Niño and La Niña: sensitivity to model biases

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas L. Tyrrell ◽  
Juho M. Koskentausta ◽  
Alexey Yu. Karpechko
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Model Biases ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Modelling Studies ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. The number of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) per year is affected by the phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), yet there are discrepancies between the observed and modeled relationship. We investigate how systematic model biases may affect the ENSO-SSW connection. A two-step bias-correction process is applied to the troposphere, stratosphere or full atmosphere of an atmospheric general circulation model. ENSO type sensitivity experiments are then performed to reveal the impact of differing climatologies on the ENSO–SSW teleconnection. The number of SSWs per year is overestimated in the control run, and this statistic is improved when stratospheric biases are reduced. The seasonal cycle of SSWs is also improved by the bias corrections. The composite SSW responses in the stratospheric zonal wind, geopotential height and surface response are well represented in both the control and bias corrected runs. The model response of SSWs to ENSO phase is more linear than in observations, in line with previous modelling studies, and this is not changed by the reduced biases. However, the trend of more wave-1 events during El Niño years than La Niña years is improved in the bias corrected runs.

scholarly journals A Proposed Mechanism for the Asymmetric Duration of El Niño and La Niña

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (15) ◽  
pp. 3822-3829 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuko M. Okumura ◽  
Masamichi Ohba ◽  
Clara Deser ◽  
Hiroaki Ueda
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Surface Wind ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Equatorial Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
La Nina

Abstract El Niño and La Niña exhibit significant asymmetry not only in their spatial structure but also in their duration. Most El Niños terminate rapidly after maturing near the end of the calendar year, whereas many La Niñas persist into the following year and often reintensify in boreal winter. Through atmospheric general circulation model experiments, it is shown that the nonlinear response of atmospheric deep convection to the polarity of equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies causes an asymmetric evolution of surface wind anomalies over the far western Pacific around the mature phase of El Niño and La Niña. Because of the eastward displacement of precipitation anomalies in the equatorial Pacific during El Niño compared to La Niña, surface winds in the western Pacific are more affected by SST forcing outside the equatorial Pacific, which acts to terminate the Pacific event.

scholarly journals Changes in Spread and Predictability Associated with ENSO in an Ensemble Coupled GCM

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (17) ◽  
pp. 4378-4396 ◽  
Author(s):  
Renguang Wu ◽  
Ben P. Kirtman
Keyword(s):  
Surface Pressure ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Boreal Winter ◽  
Central Pacific ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Signal Change

Abstract The present study documents the influence of El Niño and La Niña events on the spread and predictability of rainfall, surface pressure, and 500-hPa geopotential height, and contrasts the relative contribution of signal and noise changes to the predictability change based on a long-term integration of an interactive ensemble coupled general circulation model. It is found that the pattern of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-induced noise change for rainfall follows closely that of the corresponding signal change in most of the tropical regions. The noise for tropical Pacific surface pressure is larger (smaller) in regions of lower (higher) mean pressure. The ENSO-induced noise change for 500-hPa height displays smaller spatial scales compared to and has no systematic relationship with the signal change. The predictability for tropical rainfall and surface pressure displays obvious contrasts between the summer and winter over the Bay of Bengal, the western North Pacific, and the tropical southwestern Indian Ocean. The predictability for tropical 500-hPa height is higher in boreal summer than in boreal winter. In the equatorial central Pacific, the predictability for rainfall is much higher in La Niña years than in El Niño years. This occurs because of a larger percent reduction in the amplitude of noise compared to the percent decrease in the magnitude of signal from El Niño to La Niña years. A consistent change is seen in the predictability for surface pressure near the date line. In the western North and South Pacific, the predictability for boreal winter rainfall is higher in El Niño years than in La Niña years. This is mainly due to a stronger signal in El Niño years compared to La Niña years. The predictability for 500-hPa height increases over most of the Tropics in El Niño years. Over western tropical Pacific–Australia and East Asia, the predictability for boreal winter surface pressure and 500-hPa height is higher in El Niño years than in La Niña years. The predictability change for 500-hPa height is primarily due to the signal change.

scholarly journals Role of the Indo-Pacific Interbasin Coupling in Predicting Asymmetric ENSO Transition and Duration

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (9) ◽  
pp. 3321-3335 ◽  
Author(s):  
Masamichi Ohba ◽  
Masahiro Watanabe
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
Enso Asymmetry ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Warm and cold phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exhibit a significant asymmetry in their transition/duration such that El Niño tends to shift rapidly to La Niña after the mature phase, whereas La Niña tends to persist for up to 2 yr. The possible role of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Indian Ocean (IO) in this ENSO asymmetry is investigated using a coupled general circulation model (CGCM). Decoupled-IO experiments are conducted to assess asymmetric IO feedbacks to the ongoing ENSO evolution in the Pacific. Identical-twin forecast experiments show that a coupling of the IO extends the skillful prediction of the ENSO warm phase by about one year, which was about 8 months in the absence of the IO coupling, in which a significant drop of the prediction skill around the boreal spring (known as the spring prediction barrier) is found. The effect of IO coupling on the predictability of the Pacific SST is significantly weaker in the decay phase of La Niña. Warm IO SST anomalies associated with El Niño enhance surface easterlies over the equatorial western Pacific and hence facilitate the El Niño decay. However, this mechanism cannot be applied to cold IO SST anomalies during La Niña. The result of these CGCM experiments estimates that approximately one-half of the ENSO asymmetry arises from the phase-dependent nature of the Indo-Pacific interbasin coupling.

scholarly journals Links between Tropical Pacific SST and Cholera Incidence in Bangladesh: Role of the Eastern and Central Tropical Pacific

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (18) ◽  
pp. 4647-4663 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin A. Cash ◽  
Xavier Rodó ◽  
James L. Kinter
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Physical Mechanism ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Bacterial Disease ◽  
Monsoon Circulation

Abstract Recent studies arising from both statistical analysis and dynamical disease models indicate that there is a link between incidence of cholera, a paradigmatic waterborne bacterial disease (WBD) endemic to Bangladesh, and the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, a physical mechanism explaining this relationship has not yet been established. A regionally coupled, or “pacemaker,” configuration of the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies atmospheric general circulation model is used to investigate links between sea surface temperature in the central and eastern tropical Pacific and the regional climate of Bangladesh. It is found that enhanced precipitation tends to follow winter El Niño events in both the model and observations, providing a plausible physical mechanism by which ENSO could influence cholera in Bangladesh. The enhanced precipitation in the model arises from a modification of the summer monsoon circulation over India and Bangladesh. Westerly wind anomalies over land to the west of Bangladesh lead to increased convergence in the zonal wind field and hence increased moisture convergence and rainfall. This change in circulation results from the tropics-wide warming in the model following a winter El Niño event. These results suggest that improved forecasting of cholera incidence may be possible through the use of climate predictions.

scholarly journals Análise de Componente do Regime Hidrológico da Bacia do Rio Amazonas em Anos de Eventos Climáticos

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 988
Author(s):  
Rogério Souza Aguiar ◽  
Edson José Paulino da Rocha ◽  
José Augusto de Souza Junior ◽  
Joyse Tatiane Souza dos Santos ◽  
Josiane Sarmento Dos Santos
Keyword(s):  
Flow Rate ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Amazon River ◽  
Low Flows ◽  
La Nina ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Historical Series

As cheias e vazantes do rio Amazonas passaram a ser mais persistentes ao longo dos anos. Este estudo busca analisara influência da variabilidade temporal em escala de bacia hidrográfica sobre o regime do rio Amazonas, a partir das vazões da estação hidrológica da Agência Nacional de Águas – ANA, localizada em Óbidos, no Estado do Pará em uma série histórica de janeiro/1970 a dezembro/2013. Além do tempo, o estudo analisou a intensidade do El Niño e La Niña. Como esperado, o tempo influenciou na vazão média interanual encontrada de 98.723 m3/s para os 44 anos da série analisada. Porém com variabilidade anual do regime do rio Amazonas de intensas proporções temporais, com a vazão variando de ordem de 72.380 m3/s (como em 1997) no regime de vazante até uma ordem de 131.620 m3/s (como em 1974) no regime de cheia. Também foi identificado que fenômenos de El Niño e La Niña modularam eventos climáticos extremos sobre as vazões da Bacia Amazônica em cada ano. A análise interanual mostrou que os anos de baixas vazões, possuíam a característica de persistência de ocorrência em relação às altas vazões. A partir de 1989, houve um aumento em relação à amplitude média da vazão de 87.727 m3/s devido a fortes níveis mínimos registrados. Ao analisar a vazão normalizada percebeu-se que na maioria dos anos de baixa vazão foram também anos do fenômeno El Niño. Constatado esta persistência de baixas vazões, investigaram-se os fatores de armazenamento e disponibilidade do rio Amazonas.   Analysis of Hydrological Regime Componentof the Amazonas River Basin in Years of Climate Events. ABSTRACTThe floods and drains of the Amazon River have become more persistent over the years. This study seeks to analyze the influence of the temporal variability in the basin scale on the Amazon river regime, from the flows of the hydrological station of the National Water Agency - ANA, located in Óbidos, State of Pará, in a historical series from January/1970 to December /2013. Besides time, the study analyzed the intensity of El Niño and La Niña. As expected, time influenced the annual interannual flow rate of 98,723 m3/s for the 44 years of the analyzed series. However, with an annual variability of the Amazon river regime of intense flows, with an increase of 72,380 m3/s (as in 1997) in the effluent regime up to an order of 131,620 m3/s (as in 1974) in the flood regime. It was also identified that El Niño and La Niña phenomena modulated extreme climatic events on the Amazon Basin flows each year. The year-on-year analysis showed that the years of low flows had a persistence of occurrence in relation to high flows. As of 1989, there was an increase in relation to the average flow amplitude of 87,727 m3/s due to the strong minimum levels recorded. Analyzing the normalized flow rate, it was observed that in most of the years of low flow there were also years of the El Niño phenomenon. Considering this persistence of low flows, we investigated the storage and availability factors of the Amazon River.Keywords: Time flows. Ecological Maintenance.Amazonriver. 

Ocean Chlorophyll-Induced Heating Feedbacks on ENSO in a Coupled Ocean Physics–Biology Model Forced by Prescribed Wind Anomalies

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 1811-1832 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rong-Hua Zhang ◽  
Feng Tian ◽  
Xiujun Wang
Keyword(s):  
Solar Radiation ◽  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
La Niña ◽  
La Nina ◽  
El Niño Events ◽  
Ocean Physics ◽  
El Nino Events

Ocean biology components affect the vertical redistribution of incoming solar radiation in the upper ocean of the tropical Pacific and can significantly modulate El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The biophysical interactions in the region were represented by coupling an ocean biology model with an ocean general circulation model (OGCM); the coupled ocean physics–biology model is then forced by prescribed wind anomalies during 1980–2007. Two ocean-only experiments were performed with different representations of chlorophyll (Chl). In an interannual Chl run (referred to as Chlinter), Chl was interannually varying, which was interactively calculated from the ocean biology model to explicitly represent its heating feedback on ocean thermodynamics. The structure and relationship of the related heating terms were examined to understand the Chl-induced feedback effects and the processes involved. The portion of solar radiation penetrating the bottom of the mixed layer ( Qpen) was significantly affected by interannual Chl anomalies in the western-central equatorial Pacific. In a climatological run (Chlclim), the Chl concentration was prescribed to be its seasonally varying climatology derived from the Chlinter run. Compared with the Chlclim run, interannual variability in the Chlinter run tended to be reduced. The sea surface temperature (SST) differences between the two runs exhibited an asymmetric bioeffect: they were stronger during La Niña events but relatively weaker during El Niño events. The signs of the SST differences between the two runs indicated a close relationship with Chl: a cooling effect was associated with a low Chl concentration during El Niño events, and a strong warming effect was associated with a high Chl concentration during La Niña events.

scholarly journals Quasi-stationary waves in the Southern Hemisphere during El Niño and La Niña events

2004 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 789-806 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Brahmananda Rao ◽  
J. P. R. Fernandez ◽  
S. H. Franchito
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
El Niño ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
La Niña ◽  
Austral Spring ◽  
La Nina

Abstract. Characteristics of quasi-stationary (QS) waves in the Southern Hemisphere are discussed using 49 years (1950–1998) of NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A comparison between the stationary wave amplitudes and phases between the recent data (1979–1998) and the entire 49 years data showed that the differences are not large and the 49 years data can be used for the study. Using the 49 years of data it is found that the amplitude of QS wave 1 has two maxima in the upper atmosphere, one at 30°S and the other at 55°S. QS waves 2 and 3 have much less amplitude. Monthly variation of the amplitude of QS wave 1 shows that it is highest in October, particularly in the upper troposphere and stratosphere. To examine the QS wave propagation Plumb's methodology is used. A comparison of Eliassen-Palm fluxes for El Niño and La Niña events showed that during El Niño events there is a stronger upward and equatorward propagation of QS waves, particularly in the austral spring. Higher upward propagation indicates higher energy transport. A clear wave train can be identified at 300hPa in all the seasons except in summer. The horizontal component of wave activity flux in the El Niño composite seems to be a Rossby wave propagating along a Rossby wave guide, at first poleward until it reaches its turning latitude in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitudes, then equatorward in the vicinity of South America. The position of the center of positive anomalies in the austral spring in the El Niño years over the southeast Pacific, near South America, favors the occurrence of blocking highs in this region. This agrees with a recent numerical study by Renwick and Revell (1999). Key words. Meteorology and atmospheric dynamics (climatology; general circulation; ocean-atmosphere interactions)

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