Late Twenty-First-Century Changes in the Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation in the CESM Large Ensemble

Projected changes in the midlatitude atmospheric circulation at the end of the twenty-first century are investigated using coupled ocean–atmosphere simulations from the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (CESM-LENS). Different metrics are used to describe the response of the midlatitude atmospheric dynamics in 40 ensemble members covering the 1920–2100 period. Contrasted responses are identified depending on the season and longitudinal sector that are considered. In winter, a slowdown of the zonal flow and an increase in waviness is found over North America, while the European sector exhibits a reinforced westerly flow and decreased waviness. Extreme temperature events in midlatitudes are more sensitive to thermodynamical than dynamical changes, and a general decrease in the intensity of wintertime cold spells is found. Analyses of individual ensemble members reveal a large spread in circulation changes due to internal variability. Causes for this spread are found to be tied to the Arctic amplification in the Pacific–North American sector and to the polar stratosphere in the North Atlantic. A competition mechanism is also discussed between the midlatitude response to polar versus tropical changes. While the upper-tropospheric tropical warming pushes the jet stream poleward, in winter, Arctic amplification and the weaker polar vortex exert an opposite effect. This competition results in a narrowing of the jet path in the midlatitudes, leading to decreased/unchanged waviness/blockings. This interpretation somewhat reconciles conflicting results between the hypothesized effect of Arctic amplification and projected changes in midlatitude flow characteristics. This study also illustrates that further understanding of regional processes is critical for anticipating changes in the midlatitude dynamics.

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Uncertainty in Twenty-First-Century CMIP5 Sea Level Projections

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-14-00453.1 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 28 (2) ◽

pp. 838-852 ◽

Cited By ~ 28

Author(s):

Christopher M. Little ◽

Radley M. Horton ◽

Robert E. Kopp ◽

Michael Oppenheimer ◽

Stan Yip

Keyword(s):

Sea Level ◽

Model Uncertainty ◽

Internal Variability ◽

Climate System ◽

First Century ◽

The Arctic ◽

Management Approach ◽

Local Risk ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

Global And Local

Abstract The representative concentration pathway (RCP) simulations included in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) quantify the response of the climate system to different natural and anthropogenic forcing scenarios. These simulations differ because of 1) forcing, 2) the representation of the climate system in atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), and 3) the presence of unforced (internal) variability. Global and local sea level rise projections derived from these simulations, and the emergence of distinct responses to the four RCPs depend on the relative magnitude of these sources of uncertainty at different lead times. Here, the uncertainty in CMIP5 projections of sea level is partitioned at global and local scales, using a 164-member ensemble of twenty-first-century simulations. Local projections at New York City (NYSL) are highlighted. The partition between model uncertainty, scenario uncertainty, and internal variability in global mean sea level (GMSL) is qualitatively consistent with that of surface air temperature, with model uncertainty dominant for most of the twenty-first century. Locally, model uncertainty is dominant through 2100, with maxima in the North Atlantic and the Arctic Ocean. The model spread is driven largely by 4 of the 16 AOGCMs in the ensemble; these models exhibit outlying behavior in all RCPs and in both GMSL and NYSL. The magnitude of internal variability varies widely by location and across models, leading to differences of several decades in the local emergence of RCPs. The AOGCM spread, and its sensitivity to model exclusion and/or weighting, has important implications for sea level assessments, especially if a local risk management approach is utilized.

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Twenty-First Century Projected Changes in Extreme Temperature over Côte d’Ivoire (West Africa)

International Journal of Geophysics ◽

10.1155/2019/5610328 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 2019 ◽

pp. 1-19 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Assi L. M. Yapo ◽

Adama Diawara ◽

Fidèle Yoroba ◽

Benjamin K. Kouassi ◽

Mouhamadou B. Sylla ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Cote D'ivoire ◽

Côte D’Ivoire ◽

Extreme Temperature ◽

First Century ◽

Cote D’Ivoire ◽

Côte D'ivoire ◽

Frequency Index ◽

The Future ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

Projected Changes

The projection of the future climate changes is of paramount importance inasmuch as it contributes to provide useful information for adaptation planning worldwide to local scales. This study investigated the future changes using four temperature related indices based on an ensemble of 14 CORDEX-Africa simulations at 0.44° × 0.44° of resolution under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. These indices indicate moderate extremes over Côte d’Ivoire. The results show an increase in the warm extreme indices such as the warm spell days index (HWFI), very warm days frequency index (TX90P), and the warm nights frequency index (TN90P) over the entire country under both emission scenarios. The increase in these indices was higher under RCP8.5 and reached 85, 72, and 90% for HWFI, TX90P, and TN90P respectively. In addition, the magnitude of the changes is relevant along the coastal areas in the 2031–2060 and 2071–2100 periods. Moreover, the intra period extreme temperature range (ETR) shows future decrease following a south-north gradient with values in the range [−0.5; 1.5°C] over the country during January–March (JFM) and October–December (OND) seasons whereas an increase (~0.5°C) is projected for April–June (AMJ) and July–September (JAS) seasons, particularly in the central and northern parts. The minimum temperature increases faster than the maximum, except in AMJ and JAS in the central and northern regions. On the other hand, the changes in the indices based on the mean values of the reference period (1976–2005) are in concordance to the expected warming at the end of the twenty-first century with important trends. The projected changes are, however, subject to uncertainties, which are higher under RCP8.5 than under RCP4.5 scenarios. Overall, these changes are meaningful as all the 14 CORDEX-Africa simulations agree to an increase of warm extreme temperature.

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Changes in Frequency of Large Precipitation Accumulations over Land in a Warming Climate from the CESM Large Ensemble: The Roles of Moisture, Circulation, and Duration

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-18-0600.1 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 32 (17) ◽

pp. 5397-5416 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Jesse Norris ◽

Gang Chen ◽

J. David Neelin

Keyword(s):

First Century ◽

Minor Effect ◽

Large Ensemble ◽

Almost Everywhere ◽

Community Earth System Model ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

Projected Changes ◽

The Tropics ◽

The Given ◽

Local Average

ABSTRACT Projected changes in the frequency of major precipitation accumulations (hundreds of millimeters), integrated over rainfall events, over land in the late twenty-first century are analyzed in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble, based on the RCP8.5 scenario. Accumulation sizes are sorted by the local average recurrence interval (ARI), ranging from 0.1 to 100 years, for the current and projected late-twenty-first-century climates separately. For all ARIs, the frequency of exceedance of the given accumulation size increases in the future climate almost everywhere, especially for the largest accumulations, with the 100-yr accumulation becoming about 3 times more frequent, averaged over the global land area. The moisture budget allows the impacts of individual factors—moisture, circulation, and event duration—to be isolated. In the tropics, both moisture and circulation cause large future increases, enhancing the 100-yr accumulation by 23% and 13% (average over tropical land), and are individually responsible for making the current-climate 100-yr accumulation 2.7 times and 1.8 times more frequent, but effects of shorter durations slightly offset these effects. In the midlatitudes, large accumulations become about 5% longer in duration, but are predominantly controlled by enhanced moisture, with the 100-yr accumulation (land average) becoming 2.4 times more frequent, and 2.2 times more frequent due to moisture increases alone. In some monsoon-affected regions, the 100-yr accumulation becomes more than 5 times as frequent, where circulation changes are the most impactful factor. These projections indicate that changing duration of events is a relatively minor effect on changing accumulations, their future enhancement being dominated by enhanced intensity (the combination of moisture and circulation).

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CAS FGOALS-f3-L Large-ensemble Simulations for the CMIP6 Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project

Advances in Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1007/s00376-021-0343-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Bian He ◽

Xiaoqi Zhang ◽

Anmin Duan ◽

Qing Bao ◽

Yimin Liu ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Time Lag ◽

The Arctic ◽

Global Ocean ◽

Arctic Amplification ◽

Model Intercomparison ◽

Large Ensemble ◽

Sea Ice Concentration ◽

Ensemble Simulations ◽

Polar Amplification ◽

Intercomparison Project

AbstractLarge-ensemble simulations of the atmosphere-only time-slice experiments for the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP) were carried out by the model group of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS-f3-L). Eight groups of experiments forced by different combinations of the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration (SIC) for pre-industrial, present-day, and future conditions were performed and published. The time-lag method was used to generate the 100 ensemble members, with each member integrating from 1 April 2000 to 30 June 2001 and the first two months as the spin-up period. The basic model responses of the surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation were documented. The results indicate that Arctic amplification is mainly caused by Arctic SIC forcing changes. The SAT responses to the Arctic SIC decrease alone show an obvious increase over high latitudes, which is similar to the results from the combined forcing of SST and SIC. However, the change in global precipitation is dominated by the changes in the global SST rather than SIC, partly because tropical precipitation is mainly driven by local SST changes. The uncertainty of the model responses was also investigated through the analysis of the large-ensemble members. The relative roles of SST and SIC, together with their combined influence on Arctic amplification, are also discussed. All of these model datasets will contribute to PAMIP multi-model analysis and improve the understanding of polar amplification.

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Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions

Earth Systems and Environment ◽

10.1007/s41748-021-00250-5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 5 (3) ◽

pp. 481-497

Author(s):

Mansour Almazroui ◽

Fahad Saeed ◽

Sajjad Saeed ◽

Muhammad Ismail ◽

Muhammad Azhar Ehsan ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Spatial Variability ◽

Extreme Events ◽

First Century ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Annual Maximum ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Projected Change ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

Projected Changes ◽

The Tropics

AbstractThis paper presents projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data for mid-century (2036–2065) and end-century (2070–2099) periods with respect to the reference period (1985–2014). Four indices namely, Annual maximum of maximum temperature (TXx), Extreme heat wave days frequency (HWFI), Annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day), and Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) were investigated under four socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5; SSP3-7.0; SSP5-8.5) over the entire globe and its 26 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regions. The projections show an increase in intensity and frequency of hot temperature and precipitation extremes over land. The intensity of the hottest days (as measured by TXx) is projected to increase more in extratropical regions than in the tropics, while the frequency of extremely hot days (as measured by HWFI) is projected to increase more in the tropics. Drought frequency (as measured by CDD) is projected to increase more over Brazil, the Mediterranean, South Africa, and Australia. Meanwhile, the Asian monsoon regions (i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia) become more prone to extreme flash flooding events later in the twenty-first century as shown by the higher RX5day index projections. The projected changes in extremes reveal large spatial variability within each SREX region. The spatial variability of the studied extreme events increases with increasing greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) and is higher at the end of the twenty-first century. The projected change in the extremes and the pattern of their spatial variability is minimum under the low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. Our results indicate that an increased concentration of GHG leads to substantial increases in the extremes and their intensities. Hence, limiting CO2 emissions could substantially limit the risks associated with increases in extreme events in the twenty-first century.

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Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences ◽

10.1007/s13143-021-00225-6 ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Hyun Min Sung ◽

Jisun Kim ◽

Sungbo Shim ◽

Jeong-byn Seo ◽

Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Changes ◽

Scientific Information ◽

Earth System Model ◽

First Century ◽

System Model ◽

The Arctic ◽

Earth System ◽

Future Projections ◽

Twenty First Century

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

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The Future of the Arctic: Policy Prospects for the Twenty-First Century

The Palgrave Handbook of Arctic Policy and Politics ◽

10.1007/978-3-030-20557-7_32 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 529-542

Author(s):

Ken S. Coates ◽

Carin Holroyd

Keyword(s):

First Century ◽

The Arctic ◽

The Future ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

Arctic Policy

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Projections of Twenty-First-Century Climate Extremes for Alaska via Dynamical Downscaling and Quantile Mapping

Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology ◽

10.1175/jamc-d-16-0415.1 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 56 (9) ◽

pp. 2393-2409 ◽

Cited By ~ 18

Author(s):

Rick Lader ◽

John E. Walsh ◽

Uma S. Bhatt ◽

Peter A. Bieniek

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Dynamical Downscaling ◽

Climate Extremes ◽

First Century ◽

The Arctic ◽

Maximum Temperature ◽

Daily Maximum Temperature ◽

Quantile Mapping ◽

Temperature And Precipitation ◽

Twenty First Century

AbstractClimate change is expected to alter the frequencies and intensities of at least some types of extreme events. Although Alaska is already experiencing an amplified response to climate change, studies of extreme event occurrences have lagged those for other regions. Forced migration due to coastal erosion, failing infrastructure on thawing permafrost, more severe wildfire seasons, altered ocean chemistry, and an ever-shrinking season for snow and ice are among the most devastating effects, many of which are related to extreme climate events. This study uses regional dynamical downscaling with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model to investigate projected twenty-first-century changes of daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and precipitation over Alaska. The forcing data used for the downscaling simulations include the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim; 1981–2010), Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model, version 3 (GFDL CM3), historical (1976–2005), and GFDL CM3 representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5; 2006–2100). Observed trends of temperature and sea ice coverage in the Arctic are large, and the present trajectory of global emissions makes a continuation of these trends plausible. The future scenario is bias adjusted using a quantile-mapping procedure. Results indicate an asymmetric warming of climate extremes; namely, cold extremes rise fastest, and the greatest changes occur in winter. Maximum 1- and 5-day precipitation amounts are projected to increase by 53% and 50%, which is larger than the corresponding increases for the contiguous United States. When compared with the historical period, the shifts in temperature and precipitation indicate unprecedented heat and rainfall across Alaska during this century.

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The Polar Regions and the Development of International Law: Contemporary Reflections and Twenty-First Century Challenges

The Yearbook of Polar Law Online ◽

10.1163/22116427-91000124 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 5 (1) ◽

pp. 233-251 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Donald R. Rothwell

Keyword(s):

International Law ◽

First Century ◽

The Arctic ◽

Polar Regions ◽

Foundational Research ◽

Twenty First Century ◽

Legal Frameworks ◽

Global Affairs ◽

The Antarctic ◽

The Impact

Abstract The polar regions are increasingly coming to the forefront of global affairs in ways that are beginning to approach the prominence given to the polar regions during the ‘heroic era’ of exploration at the beginning of the twentieth century. This contemporary focus is, however, very much upon governance and the capacity of the existing and future legal frameworks to govern the Antarctic and Arctic effectively. This article revisits foundational research undertaken in 1992–1993 and reassesses the impact of the polar regions upon the development of international law. Particular attention is given to environmental management, living and nonliving resource management, the regulation and management of maritime areas, and governance mechanisms and frameworks. The article seeks to critically assess whether the existing legal frameworks that operate in Antarctica and the Arctic are capable of dealing with their increasing globalisation, or whether there will be a need for new legal and governance regimes to be developed to address twenty-first century challenges.

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