Sensitivity of Tropical Tropopause Layer Cirrus Prediction in GRAPES Global Forecast System

2021 ◽  
Vol 149 (11) ◽  
pp. 3609-3625
Author(s):  
Jiong Chen ◽  
Zhe Li ◽  
Zhanshan Ma ◽  
Yong Su ◽  
Qijun Liu
Keyword(s):  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Ice Nucleation ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Ice Crystal ◽  
Warm Bias ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Radiative Processes ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Crystal Content

Abstract A warm bias with a maximum value of over 4 K in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) is detected in day-5 operational forecasts of the Global/Regional Assimilation and Prediction System (GRAPES) for global medium-range numerical weather prediction (GRAPES_GFS). In this study, the predicted temperature changes caused by different processes are examined, and the predicted cloud fractions are compared with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5 reanalysis data. It is found that the overprediction of the TTL cirrus fraction contributes to the warm bias due to cloud-radiative heating. The interactions among the ice nucleation, deposition/sublimation, and the large-scale condensation together determine the results of the TTL ice crystal content prediction. Moreover, a range of sensitivity experiments show that the TTL ice crystal content prediction is sensitive to the threshold relative humidity over ice (RHi) in the ice nucleation process. Then the uncertainties of the formulas for saturation vapor pressure over ice at very low temperatures are discussed. The RHi calculated based on the Magnus–Tetens formula is up to 10% higher than that based on the Goff–Gratch formula. As the Goff–Gratch formula is applicable over a broader range of 184–273 K, it is more suitable for the cold TTL. When the Goff–Gratch formula rather than the Magnus–Tetens formula is used in the microphysics scheme, the TTL cirrus forecasts are improved greatly, and the warm bias disappears completely. After investigating the interplay of the dynamical, microphysical, and radiative processes, we find a positive feedback mechanism that exacerbates the TTL cirrus prediction error.

scholarly journals Tropical tropopause ice clouds: a dynamic approach to the mystery of low crystal numbers

2013 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 9801-9818 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Spichtinger ◽  
M. Krämer
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Ice Nucleation ◽  
Ice Formation ◽  
Ice Crystal ◽  
Ice Clouds ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Homogeneous Freezing

Abstract. The occurrence of high, persistent ice supersaturation inside and outside cold cirrus in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) remains an enigma that is intensely debated as the "ice supersaturation puzzle". However, it was recently confirmed that observed supersaturations are consistent with very low ice crystal concentrations, which is incompatible with the idea that homogeneous freezing is the major method of ice formation in the TTL. Thus, the tropical tropopause "ice supersaturation puzzle" has become an "ice nucleation puzzle". To explain the low ice crystal concentrations, a number of mainly heterogeneous freezing methods have been proposed. Here, we reproduce in situ measurements of frequencies of occurrence of ice crystal concentrations by extensive model simulations, driven by the special dynamic conditions in the TTL, namely the superposition of slow large-scale updraughts with high-frequency short waves. From the simulations, it follows that the full range of observed ice crystal concentrations can be explained when the model results are composed from scenarios with consecutive heterogeneous and homogeneous ice formation and scenarios with pure homogeneous ice formation occurring in very slow (< 1 cm s−1) and faster (> 1 cm s−1) large-scale updraughts, respectively. This statistical analysis shows that about 80% of TTL cirrus can be explained by "classical" homogeneous ice nucleation, while the remaining 20% stem from heterogeneous and homogeneous freezing occurring within the same environment. The mechanism limiting ice crystal production via homogeneous freezing in an environment full of gravity waves is the shortness of the gravity waves, which stalls freezing events before a higher ice crystal concentration can be formed.

scholarly journals Cirrus and water vapour transport in the tropical tropopause layer – Part 2: Roles of ice nucleation and sedimentation, cloud dynamics, and moisture conditions

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (22) ◽  
pp. 12225-12236 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Dinh ◽  
S. Fueglistaler ◽  
D. Durran ◽  
T. Ackerman
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Ice Nucleation ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Radiative Effects ◽  
Downward Flux ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Instantaneous Removal ◽  
Moisture Redistribution

Abstract. A high-resolution, two-dimensional numerical model is used to study the moisture redistribution following homogeneous ice nucleation induced by Kelvin waves in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). We compare results for dry/moist initial conditions and three levels of complexity for the representation of cloud processes: complete microphysics and cloud radiative effects, likewise but without radiative effects, and instantaneous removal of moisture in excess of saturation upon nucleation. Cloud evolution and moisture redistribution are found to be sensitive to initial conditions and cloud processes. Ice sedimentation leads to a downward flux of water, whereas the cloud radiative heating induces upward advection of the cloudy air. The latter results in an upward (downward) flux of water vapour if the cloudy air is moister (drier) than the environment, which is typically when the environment is subsaturated (supersaturated). Only a fraction (~25% or less) of the cloud experiences nucleation. Post-nucleation processes (ice depositional growth, sedimentation, and sublimation) are important to cloud morphology, and both dehydrated and hydrated layers may be indicators of TTL cirrus occurrence. The calculation with instantaneous removal of moisture not only misses the hydration but also underestimates dehydration due to (i) nucleation before reaching the minimum saturation mixing ratio, and (ii) lack of moisture removal from sedimenting ice particles below the nucleation level. The sensitivity to initial conditions and cloud processes suggests that it is difficult to reach generic, quantitative estimates of cloud-induced moisture redistribution on the basis of case-by-case calculations.

scholarly journals Ice nucleation and cloud microphysical properties in tropical tropopause layer cirrus

2009 ◽  
Vol 9 (5) ◽  
pp. 20631-20675 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. J. Jensen ◽  
L. Pfister ◽  
T.-P. Bui ◽  
P. Lawson ◽  
D. Baumgardner
Keyword(s):  
Ice Nucleation ◽  
Nucleation Theory ◽  
Ice Crystal ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Microphysical Properties ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Ice Nuclei ◽  
Ice Crystal Size ◽  
Homogeneous Freezing

Abstract. In past modeling studies, it has generally been assumed that the predominant mechanism for nucleation of ice in the uppermost troposphere is homogeneous freezing of aqueous aerosols. However, recent in situ and remote-sensing measurements of the properties of cirrus clouds at very low temperatures in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) are broadly inconsistent with theoretial predictions based on the homogeneous freezing assumption. The nearly ubiquitous occurence of gravity waves in the TTL makes the predictions from homogeneous nucleation theory particularly difficult to reconcile with measurements. These measured properties include ice number concentrations, which are much lower than theory predicts; ice crystal size distributions, which are much broader than theory predicts; and cloud extinctions, which are much lower than theory predicts. Although other explanations are possible, one way to limit ice concentrations is to have on the order of 50 L−1 effective ice nuclei (IN) that could nucleate ice at relatively low supersaturations. We suggest that ammonium sulfate particles, which would be dry much of the time in the cold TTL, are a potential IN candidate for TTL cirrus. Possible implications of the observed cloud microphysical properties for ice sedimentation, dehydration, and cloud persistence are also discussed.

scholarly journals Tropical tropopause ice clouds: a dynamic approach to the mystery of low crystal numbers

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (10) ◽  
pp. 28109-28153 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Spichtinger ◽  
M. Krämer
Keyword(s):  
Gravity Waves ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Ice Nucleation ◽  
Ice Formation ◽  
Ice Crystal ◽  
Ice Clouds ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Homogeneous Freezing

Abstract. The occurrence of high, persistent ice supersaturation inside and outside cold cirrus in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) remains an enigma that is intensely debated as the "ice supersaturation puzzle". However, it was recently confirmed that observed supersaturations are consistent with very low ice crystal concentrations, which is incompatible with the idea that homogeneous freezing is the major method of ice formation in the TTL. Thus, the tropical tropopause "ice supersaturation puzzle" has become an "ice nucleation puzzle". To explain the low ice crystal concentrations, a number of mainly heterogeneous freezing methods have been proposed. Here, we reproduce in situ measurements of frequencies of occurrence of ice crystal concentrations by extensive model simulations, driven by the special dynamic conditions in the TTL, namely the superposition of slow large-scale updraughts with high-frequency short waves. From the simulations, it follows that the full range of observed ice crystal concentrations can be explained when the model results of the scenarios are mixed for both heterogeneous/homogeneous and pure homogeneous ice formation occurring in very slow (<1 cm s−1) and faster (>1 cm s−1) large-scale updraughts. This statistical analysis shows that about 80% of TTL cirrus can be explained by "classical" homogeneous ice nucleation, while the remaining 20% stem from heterogeneous and homogeneous freezing occurring within the same environment. The mechanism limiting ice crystal production via homogeneous freezing in an environment full of gravity waves is the shortness of the gravity waves, which stalls freezing events before a higher ice crystal concentration can be formed.

scholarly journals Cold trap dehydration in the Tropical Tropopause Layer characterized by SOWER chilled-mirror hygrometer network data in the Tropical Pacific

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (9) ◽  
pp. 25833-25885 ◽  
Author(s):  
F. Hasebe ◽  
Y. Inai ◽  
M. Shiotani ◽  
M. Fujiwara ◽  
H. Vömel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ice Nucleation ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
Cold Trap ◽  
Mixing Ratio ◽  
Back Trajectories ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Scatter Plots ◽  
Cold Point ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract. A network of balloon-born radiosonde observations employing chilled-mirror hygrometers for water and electrochemical concentration cells for ozone has been operated since late 1990s in the Tropical Pacific trying to capture the progress of dehydration for the air parcels advected horizontally in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL). The analyses of this dataset are made on isentropes taking advantage of the conservative properties of tracers in adiabatic motion. The existence of ice particles is diagnosed by lidars simultaneously operated with sonde flights. Characteristics of the TTL dehydration are presented on the basis of individual soundings and statistical features. Supersaturations close to 80% in the relative humidity with respect to ice (RHice) have been observed in subvisible cirrus clouds located near the cold point tropopause at extremely low temperatures around 180 K. Further observational evidence is needed to confirm the credibility of such high values of RHice. The progress of TTL dehydration is reflected in isentropic scatter plots between the sonde-observed mixing ratio (OMR) and the minimum saturation mixing ratio (SMRmin) along the back trajectories associated with the observed air mass. The supersaturation exceeding the critical value of the homogeneous ice nucleation (OMR > 1.6 × SMRmin) is frequently observed on 360 and 365 K surfaces indicating that the cold trap dehydration is under progress in the TTL. The near correspondence between the two (OMR ~ SMRmin) on 380 K on the other hand implies that this surface is not significantly cold for the advected air parcels to be dehydrated. Above 380 K, the cold trap dehydration would scarcely function while some moistening in turn occurs before the air parcels reach the lowermost stratosphere at around 400 K where OMR is generally smaller than SMRmin.

scholarly journals Quantifying the Radiative Impact of Clouds on Tropopause Layer Cooling in Tropical Cyclones

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (15) ◽  
pp. 5527-5542
Author(s):  
Louis Rivoire ◽  
Thomas Birner ◽  
John A. Knaff ◽  
Natalie Tourville
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Orthogonal Polarization ◽  
Heating Rates ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Convective Region ◽  
Order Of Magnitude

AbstractA ubiquitous cold signal near the tropopause, here called “tropopause layer cooling” (TLC), has been documented in deep convective regions such as tropical cyclones (TCs). Temperature retrievals from the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) reveal cooling of order 0.1–1 K day−1 on spatial scales of order 1000 km above TCs. Data from the Cloud Profiling Radar (onboard CloudSat) and from the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization [onboard the Cloud–Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observations (CALIPSO)] are used to analyze cloud distributions associated with TCs. Evidence is found that convective clouds within TCs reach the upper part of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) more frequently than do convective clouds outside TCs, raising the possibility that convective clouds within TCs and associated cirrus clouds modulate TLC. The contribution of clouds to radiative heating rates is then quantified using the CloudSat and CALIPSO datasets: in the lower TTL (below the tropopause), clouds produce longwave cooling of order 0.1–1 K day−1 inside the TC main convective region, and longwave warming of order 0.01–0.1 K day−1 outside; in the upper TTL (near and above the tropopause), clouds produce longwave cooling of the same order as TLC inside the TC main convective region, and up to one order of magnitude smaller outside. Considering that clouds also produce shortwave warming, it is suggested that cloud radiative effects inside and outside TCs only explain modest amounts of TLC while other processes must provide the remaining cooling.

scholarly journals The radiative role of ozone and water vapour in the temperature annual cycle in the tropical tropopause layer

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alison Ming ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Peter Hitchcock ◽  
Peter Haynes
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapour ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Latitudinal Gradients ◽  
Peak Amplitude ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Enhanced Absorption ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Cold Point

Abstract. The prominent annual cycle in temperatures (with maximum peak to peak amplitude of ~ 8 K around 70 hPa and ~ 6 K at 90 hPa) is a key feature of the tropical tropopause layer (TTL). There is also a strong annual cycle observed in both ozone and water vapour in the TTL, with the latter understood as a consequence of the temperature annual cycle. The radiative contributions of the annual cycle in ozone and water vapour to the temperature annual cycle are studied, first with a seasonally evolving fixed dynamical heating calculation (SEFDH) where the dynamical heating is assumed to be unaffected by the radiative heating. In this framework, the variations in ozone and water vapour derived from satellite data lead to variations in temperature that are respectively in phase and out of phase with the observed annual cycle. The ozone contribution is at the upper range of previous calculations. This difference in phasing can be understood from the fact that an increase in water vapour cools the TTL, predominantly through enhanced local emission, whereas an increase in ozone warms the TTL, mostly through enhanced absorption of upwelling longwave radiation from the troposphere. The relative phasing of the water vapour and ozone effects on temperature is further influenced by the fact that for water vapour there is a strong non-local effect on temperatures from variations in concentrations occurring in lower layers of the TTL. In contrast, for ozone it is the local variations in concentration that have the strongest impact on local temperature variations. The factors that determine the vertical structure of the annual cycle in temperature are also examined. Radiative damping time scales are shown to maximize over a broad layer centred on the cold point. Non-radiative processes in the upper troposphere are inferred to impose a strong constraint on temperature perturbations below 130 hPa. These effects, combined with the annual cycles in dynamical and radiative heating, which both peak above the cold point, result in a maximum amplitude of temperature response that is relatively localized around 70 hPa. Finally, the SEFDH assumption is relaxed by considering the temperature responses to ozone and water vapour variations in a zonally symmetric dynamical model. While the magnitude of the tropical averaged temperature annual cycle in this framework is found to be consistent with the SEFDH results, the effects of the dynamical adjustment act to reduce the strong latitudinal gradients and inter-hemispheric asymmetry in the temperature response. This results in a temperature response that shows a considerably smoother structure than inferred from the SEFDH model. Whilst precise numerical values are likely to be sensitive to changes in the details of radiation code and of ozone and water vapour concentrations, the net contribution to the annual cycle in temperature from both ozone and water vapour averaged between 20° N–S, calculated in this work, is substantial and around 35 % of the observed peak to peak amplitude at both 70 hPa and 90 hPa.

scholarly journals The roles of convection, extratropical mixing, and in-situ freeze-drying in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

2008 ◽  
Vol 8 (20) ◽  
pp. 6051-6067 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. G. Read ◽  
M. J. Schwartz ◽  
A. Lambert ◽  
H. Su ◽  
N. J. Livesey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Chemistry ◽  
Quantitative Agreement ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Cold Trap ◽  
Neutral Buoyancy ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Convective Mixing ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Trace Species ◽  
Cold Point

Abstract. Mechanisms for transporting and dehydrating air across the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) are investigated with a conceptual two dimensional (2-D) model. The 2-D TTL model combines the Holton and Gettelman cold trap dehydration mechanism (Holton and Gettelman, 2001) with the two column convection model of Folkins and Martin (2005). We investigate 3 possible transport scenarios through the TTL: 1) slow uniform ascent across the level of zero radiative heating without direct convective mixing, 2) convective mixing of H2O vapor at 100% relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi) with no ice retention, and 3) convective mixing of extremely subsaturated air (100% RHi following the moist adiabatic temperature above the level of neutral buoyancy) with sufficient ice retention such that total H2O is 100%RHi. The three mechanisms produce similar seasonal cycles for H2O that are in good quantitative agreement with the Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) measurements. We use Aura MLS measurement of CO and Atmospheric Chemistry Experiment-Fourier Transform Spectrometer measurement of HDO to distinguish among the transport mechanisms. Model comparisons with the observations support the view that H2O is predominantly controlled by regions having the lowest cold point tropopause temperature but the trace species CO and HDO support the convective mixing of dry air and lofted ice. The model provides some insight into the processes affecting the long term trends observed in stratospheric H2O.

scholarly journals Ice nucleation and dehydration in the Tropical Tropopause Layer

2013 ◽  
Vol 110 (6) ◽  
pp. 2041-2046 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. J. Jensen ◽  
G. Diskin ◽  
R. P. Lawson ◽  
S. Lance ◽  
T. P. Bui ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Ice Nucleation ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Tropical Tropopause

scholarly journals Short-lived brominated hydrocarbons – observations in the source regions and the tropical tropopause layer

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 1213-1228 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Brinckmann ◽  
A. Engel ◽  
H. Bönisch ◽  
B. Quack ◽  
E. Atlas
Keyword(s):  
Marine Boundary Layer ◽  
Sampling Technique ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Tropical Tropopause Layer ◽  
Mixing Ratios ◽  
Tropical Tropopause ◽  
Linear Relationships ◽  
Made In

Abstract. We conducted measurements of the five important short-lived organic bromine species in the marine boundary layer (MBL). Measurements were made in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes (Sylt Island, North Sea) in June 2009 and in the tropical Western Pacific during the TransBrom ship campaign in October 2009. For the one-week time series on Sylt Island, mean mixing ratios of CHBr3, CH2Br2, CHBr2Cl and CH2BrCl were 2.0, 1.1, 0.2, 0.1 ppt, respectively. We found maxima of 5.8 and 1.6 ppt for the two main components CHBr3 and CH2Br2. Along the cruise track in the Western Pacific (between 41° N and 13° S) we measured mean mixing ratios of 0.9, 0.9, 0.2, 0.1 and 0.1 ppt for CHBr3, CH2Br2, CHBrCl2, CHBr2Cl and CH2BrCl. Air samples with coastal influence showed considerably higher mixing ratios than the samples with open ocean origin. Correlation analyses of the two data sets yielded strong linear relationships between the mixing ratios of four of the five species (except for CH2BrCl). Using a combined data set from the two campaigns and a comparison with the results from two former studies, rough estimates of the molar emission ratios between the correlated substances were: 9/1/0.35/0.35 for CHBr3/CH2Br2/CHBrCl2/CHBr2Cl. Additional measurements were made in the tropical tropopause layer (TTL) above Teresina (Brazil, 5° S) in June 2008, using balloon-borne cryogenic whole air sampling technique. Near the level of zero clear-sky net radiative heating (LZRH) at 14.8 km about 2.25 ppt organic bromine was bound to the five short-lived species, making up 13% of total organic bromine (17.82 ppt). CH2Br2 (1.45 ppt) and CHBr3 (0.56 ppt) accounted for 90% of the budget of short-lived compounds in that region. Near the tropopause (at 17.5 km) organic bromine from these substances was reduced to 1.35 ppt, with 1.07 and 0.12 ppt attributed to CH2Br2 and CHBr3, respectively.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document