scholarly journals A Mental Models Study of Hurricane Forecast and Warning Production, Communication, and Decision-Making*

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann Bostrom ◽  
Rebecca E. Morss ◽  
Jeffrey K. Lazo ◽  
Julie L. Demuth ◽  
Heather Lazrus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Mental Models ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Action Context ◽  
Risk Decision

Abstract The study reported here explores how to enhance the public value of hurricane forecast and warning information by examining the entire warning process. A mental models research approach is applied to address three risk management tasks critical to warnings for extreme weather events: 1) understanding the risk decision and action context for hurricane warnings, 2) understanding the commonalities and conflicts in interpretations of that context and associated risks, and 3) exploring the practical implications of these insights for hurricane risk communication and management. To understand the risk decision and action context, the study develops a decision-focused model of the hurricane forecast and warning system on the basis of results from individual mental models interviews with forecasters from the National Hurricane Center (n = 4) and the Miami–South Florida Weather Forecast Office (n = 4), media broadcasters (n = 5), and public officials (n = 6), as well as a group decision-modeling session with a subset of the forecasters. Comparisons across professionals reveal numerous shared perceptions, as well as some critical differences. Implications for improving extreme weather event forecast and warning systems and risk communication are threefold: 1) promote thinking about forecast and warning decisions as a system, with informal as well as formal elements; 2) evaluate, coordinate, and consider controlling the proliferation of forecast and warning information products; and 3) further examine the interpretation and representation of uncertainty within the hurricane forecast and warning system as well as for users.

scholarly journals The RISKMED project: philosophy, methods and products

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 1393-1401 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Bartzokas ◽  
J. Azzopardi ◽  
L. Bertotti ◽  
A. Buzzi ◽  
L. Cavaleri ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Meteorological Parameters ◽  
Eastern Mediterranean ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Population Characteristics ◽  
Space Distribution ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Graphic System ◽  
Weather Events

Abstract. This paper presents RISKMED, a project targeted to create an Early Warning System (EWS) in case of severe or extreme weather events in the central and eastern Mediterranean and specifically in southern Italy, northwestern Greece, Malta and Cyprus. As severe or extreme weather events are considered, cases when the values of some meteorological parameters (temperature, wind, precipitation) exceed certain thresholds, and/or a severe weather phenomenon (thunderstorm, snowfall) occurs. For an accurate weather forecast, selected meteorological models have been operated daily, based on a nesting strategy using two or three domains, providing detailed forecasts over the above mentioned areas. The forecast results are further exploited for the evaluation and prediction of human discomfort and fire weather indices. Finally, sea wave models have also been operating daily over the central and eastern Mediterranean Sea. In case a severe or extreme weather event is forecasted within the next 48 or 72 h for selected target areas (sub-regions defined by their morphological and population characteristics), the local authorities and the public are informed via a user-friendly graphic system, the so-called RISK MAP. On the web page of the Project ( http://www.riskmed.net ), additional information is provided about the real-time values of some meteorological parameters, the latest satellite picture and the time and space distribution of lightning during the last 24 h. The RISKMED project was financed by the EU and th Ministries of National Economy of Greece, Italy, Malta and Cyprus, in the frame of INTERREG IIIB/ARCHIMED programme.

scholarly journals Impact of Extreme Weather on Healthcare Utilization by People with HIV in Metropolitan Miami

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 2442
Author(s):  
Daniel Samano ◽  
Shubhayu Saha ◽  
Taylor Corbin Kot ◽  
JoNell E. Potter ◽  
Lunthita M. Duthely
Keyword(s):  
Relative Risk ◽  
The United States ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Heat Index ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Daily Weather Data ◽  
The Impact

Extreme weather events (EWE) are expected to increase as climate change intensifies, leaving coastal regions exposed to higher risks. South Florida has the highest HIV infection rate in the United States, and disruptions in clinic utilization due to extreme weather conditions could affect adherence to treatment and increase community transmission. The objective of this study was to identify the association between EWE and HIV-clinic attendance rates at a large academic medical system serving the Miami-Dade communities. The following methods were utilized: (1) Extreme heat index (EHI) and extreme precipitation (EP) were identified using daily observations from 1990–2019 that were collected at the Miami International Airport weather station located 3.6 miles from the studied HIV clinics. Data on hurricanes, coastal storms and flooding were collected from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Storms Database (NOAA) for Miami-Dade County. (2) An all-HIV clinic registry identified scheduled daily visits during the study period (hurricane seasons from 2017–2019). (3) Daily weather data were linked to the all-HIV clinic registry, where patients’ ‘no-show’ status was the variable of interest. (4) A time-stratified, case crossover model was used to estimate the relative risk of no-show on days with a high heat index, precipitation, and/or an extreme natural event. A total of 26,444 scheduled visits were analyzed during the 383-day study period. A steady increase in the relative risk of ‘no-show’ was observed in successive categories, with a 14% increase observed on days when the heat index was extreme compared to days with a relatively low EHI, 13% on days with EP compared to days with no EP, and 10% higher on days with a reported extreme weather event compared to days without such incident. This study represents a novel approach to improving local understanding of the impacts of EWE on the HIV-population’s utilization of healthcare, particularly when the frequency and intensity of EWE is expected to increase and disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. More studies are needed to understand the impact of EWE on routine outpatient settings.

scholarly journals Early warning system on extreme weather events for disaster risk reduction

2019 ◽  
pp. 80-87
Author(s):  
Jacipt Alexander Ramón-Valencia ◽  
Jordi Rafael Palacios-González ◽  
Germán Rircardo Santos-Granados ◽  
Jarol Derley Ramón-Valencia
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events

The objective of this research was to propose a strategy based on the design and implementation of an early warning system (EWS) for extreme weather events. This project had the following phases: training for municipal and regional actors, preliminary technical diagnosis of the study areas, monitoring network, and the weather forecasts using numerical models WRF and GFS. This EWS is the result of the Macro-project EWS for Climate Events in the basins of the Pamplonita River and Zulia in the North of Santander (SATC), executed by the University of Pamplona and financed by the National Risk Management Unit (UNGRD) and the German Cooperation Agency (GIZ). The research concluded that the application of a disaster risk reduction strategy through an EWS for extreme weather events is an important tool and instrument for the planning of higher risk management because it helps anticipate disasters and consequently preserve lives.

Creation and Communication of Hurricane Risk Information

2012 ◽  
Vol 93 (8) ◽  
pp. 1133-1145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie L. Demuth ◽  
Rebecca E. Morss ◽  
Betty Hearn Morrow ◽  
Jeffrey K. Lazo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Risk Information ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Public ◽  
Local Television ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Hurricane Risk ◽  
Uncertainty Information

Reducing loss of life and harm when a hurricane threatens depends on people receiving hurricane risk information that they can interpret and use in protective decisions. To understand and improve hurricane risk communication, this article examines how National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and local weather forecast offices, local emergency managers, and local television and radio media create and convey hurricane risk information. Data from in-depth interviews and observational sessions with members of these groups from Greater Miami were analyzed to examine their roles, goals, and interactions, and to identify strengths and challenges in how they communicate with each other and with the public. Together, these groups succeed in partnering with each other to make information about approaching hurricane threats widely available. Yet NWS forecasters sometimes find that the information they provide is not used as they intended; media personnel want streamlined information from NWS and emergency managers that emphasizes the timing of hazards and the recommended response and protective actions; and emergency managers need forecast uncertainty information that can help them plan for different scenarios. Thus, we recommend that warning system partners 1) build understanding of each other's needs and constraints; 2) ensure formalized, yet flexible mechanisms exist for exchanging critical information; 3) improve hurricane risk communication by integrating social science knowledge to design and test messages with intended audiences; and 4) evaluate, test, and improve the NWS hurricane-related product suite in collaboration with social scientists.

scholarly journals A Textual Processing Model of Risk Communication: Lessons from Typhoon Haiyan

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 447-463 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raul P. Lejano ◽  
Joyce Melcar Tan ◽  
A. Meriwether W. Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Storm Surge ◽  
Urban Poor ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Communication Process ◽  
Relational Model ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Communication Needs ◽  
Future Work

Abstract As the world’s urban poor increase in numbers, they become acutely vulnerable to hazards from extreme weather events. On 8 November 2013, Typhoon Haiyan struck the province of Leyte, Philippines, with casualties numbering in the thousands, largely because of the ensuing storm surge that swept the coastal communities. This study investigates the role and dynamics of risk communication in these events, specifically examining the organizational processing of text within a complex institutional milieu. The authors show how the risk communication process failed to convey meaningful information about the predicted storm surge, transmitting and retransmitting the same routine text instead of communicating authentic messages in earnest. The key insight is that, rather than focus solely on the verbatim transmission of a scripted text, risk communication needs to employ various modes of translation and feedback signals across organizational and institutional boundaries. Adaptation will require overcoming organizational rigidities in order to craft proportionate responses to extreme weather events that may lie outside personal and institutional memory. Future work should build upon the textual processing approach to risk communication, expanding it into a comprehensive relational model of environmental cognition.

scholarly journals Enhancing Flood Early Warning System in the HKH Region

2021 ◽  
pp. 169-200
Author(s):  
Karma Tsering ◽  
Kiran Shakya ◽  
Mir A. Matin ◽  
Jim Nelson ◽  
Birendra Bajracharya
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Early Warning System ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Environmental Changes ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Forecasting And Warning

AbstractFlooding is a chronic natural hazard with disastrous impacts that have magnified over the last decade due to the rising trend in extreme weather events and growing societal vulnerability from global socioeconomic and environmental changes (WMO 2011 in Manual on flood forecasting and warning (WMO-No. 1072)).

scholarly journals Perbandingan Estimasi Radar Cuaca Dopler Baron Terhadap Data Observasi Kejadian Hujan Di Kota Kupang

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Ni Putu Nonik Prianti ◽  
Roddialek Pollo ◽  
Judi K. Nasjoro ◽  
Sulton Kharisma
Keyword(s):  
Early Warning ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Heavy Rain ◽  
Radar Data ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Observation Data ◽  
Weather Information ◽  
The Impact

Radar is able to provide information about extreme weather observations in the form of heavy rain, so it is important to find the level of accuracy of the radar in providing extreme weather information. So that with accurate data disaster mitigation can be done by creating an early warning system using radar data in order to minimize the impact that will occur. Comparative analysis of the estimated rainfall events on the radar with surface observation data shows a good level of accuracy, but the blankness of the data on the radar due to damage thus influences the decision making of the forecasters when providing extreme weather information quickly to the public. By knowing the radar accuracy level is quite good in estimating rain events, BMKG can provide weather information in the form of appropriate early warning so that people can anticipate extreme weather events

scholarly journals Evidence synthesis - Evaluating risk communication during extreme weather and climate change: a scoping review

2019 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 142-156 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elaina MacIntyre ◽  
Sanjay Khanna ◽  
Anthea Darychuk ◽  
Ray Copes ◽  
Brian Schwartz
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Communication ◽  
Scoping Review ◽  
Evidence Synthesis ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Health Practitioners ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Public Health Practitioners

Introduction Communicating risk to the public continues to be a challenge for public health practitioners working in the area of climate change. We conducted a scoping literature review on the evaluation of risk communication for extreme weather and climate change to inform local public health messaging, consistent with requirements under the Ontario Public Health Standards (OPHS), which were updated in 2018 to include effective communication regarding climate change and extreme weather. Methods Search strategies were developed by library information specialists and used to retrieve peer-reviewed academic and grey literature from bibliographic databases (Medline, Embase, Scopus and CINAHL) and Google country specific searches, respectively. The search strategy was validated through a workshop with experts and community stakeholders, with expertise in environment, health, emergency management and risk communication. Results A total of 43 articles were included. These articles addressed issues such as: climate change (n = 22), flooding (n = 12), hurricane events (n = 5), extreme heat (n = 2), and wild fires (n = 2). Studies were predominantly from the US (n = 14), Europe (n = 6) and Canada (n = 5). Conclusion To meet the OPHS 2018, public health practitioners need to engage in effective risk communication to motivate local actions that mitigate the effects of extreme weather and climate change. Based on the scoping review, risk communication efforts during short-term extreme weather events appear to be more effective than efforts to communicate risk around climate change. This distinction could highlight a unique opportunity for public health to adapt strategies commonly used for extreme weather to climate change.

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