scholarly journals The IS Curve and Monetary Policy Transmission in India: A New Keynesian Perspective

2018 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 41-66 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhavesh Salunkhe ◽  
Anuradha Patnaik
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
External Demand ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Empirical Performance ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

The present study assesses the empirical performance of the new Keynesian IS model by estimating the standard as well as extended specifications of both the backward-looking and hybrid models in India over the period 1998Q1 to 2015Q4. It is found that the backward-looking IS model fits the data quite well in comparison with the hybrid model. The link between the policy rate and output gap appeared to be a bit stronger in the extended backward-looking IS model, as the interest rate coefficient is larger. Also, besides the interest rate, the real exchange rate, external demand and crude oil prices also have an impact on aggregate demand. The results suggest that the standard specification of the IS curve is inadequate to estimate the impact of the interest rate on aggregate demand and therefore a broader framework which accounts for additional variables besides the interest rate may be required. JEL Classification: E520, E120, C360, E510

Examining the Asymmetric Impact of Monetary Policy in India

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 290-314 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeevan Kumar Khundrakpam
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Significant Negative Impact ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Though an accumulating body of work has analysed monetary policy transmission in India, there are few studies examining the asymmetric aspect of the transmission. Against this backdrop, segregating the interest rate setting process captured by a Taylor rule type into unanticipated and anticipated components, this article analyses the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on aggregate demand and its components, and inflation in India using quarterly data from 1996–97Q1 to 2013–14Q3. It finds that unanticipated hikes and cuts in the policy rate have a symmetric impact on aggregate demand, but differentially impact the components. While the impacts on investment are negative and symmetric, they are asymmetric on private consumption, with only an unanticipated cut in policy rate having a significant negative impact. Government consumption is unaffected by monetary policy shocks. The impact of unanticipated interest rate changes on inflation is negative and symmetric. Anticipated policy rate changes also have a negative impact on aggregate demand and its components, except for government consumption, but between certain levels, such changes are ineffective, indicating a neutral impact. Anticipated policy rate changes have a negative impact on inflation at all levels. JEL Classification: C32, C51, E31, E52

Tunisian Fiscal Policy Effects in a New Keynesian Model With Price Rigidity and Monopolistic Competition

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-31
Author(s):  
Slah Slimani
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Private Consumption ◽  
Monopolistic Competition ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Public Spending ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
The Interest Rate

This paper applies a multivariate neo-Keynesian DSGE model to study the effects of changes in Tunisian public spending on the business cycle, private consumption, wages, interest rate, and inflation rate in the presence of monopolistic competition and price nominal short-term rigidity. The main finding of this paper shows a Tunisian pro-cyclical fiscal policy. Expansionary public spending has two initial effects. The output increases due to the usual increase in labor supply, and aggregate demand increases due to an incomplete crowding out of private consumption. By increasing aggregate demand, the central bank increases the nominal interest rate, which moves in concert with inflation in order to counteract inflationary pressures. Households reduce their consumer spending at the same time as the real interest rate increases. Some companies are responding to the change in the interest rate by reducing their expenses, their employment demands, and their capital utilization rates.

scholarly journals The Impact of Electronic Money on Monetary Policy: Based on DSGE Model Simulations

Mathematics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (20) ◽  
pp. 2614
Author(s):  
Sumei Luo ◽  
Guangyou Zhou ◽  
Jinpeng Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Dsge Model ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Electronic Money ◽  
Savings And Loans ◽  
Interactive Relationship ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Starting with the interactive relationship between electronic money and household consumption stimuli, this paper deeply analyzes the changes in the behavior of each monetary subject under the impact of electronic money, and establishes a DSGE model based on the three economic sectors of family, commercial bank and central bank under the New Keynesian framework. On this basis, the impact of electronic money on savings, loans, output and the interest rate, and its impact on monetary policy, are described by numerical simulation. The simulation results show that: (1) electronic money has asymmetric effects on savings and loans, but an irrational deviation on households; (2) the influence of electronic money on the interest rate has a reverse effect, and the “inverse adjustment” of the interest rate increases the management difficulty of the micro subject to a certain extent, and affects the effectiveness of monetary policy; (3) the regulatory effect of price monetary policy is better than that of quantitative monetary policy, and electronic money has the effect of its risk restraining impact. Finally, based on the analysis, this paper gives policy recommendations.

scholarly journals Assessing the Role of Money versus Interest Rate in Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 59 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-114
Author(s):  
Zafar Hayat ◽  
Muhammad Nadim Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Relative Effectiveness ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Price Puzzle ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

We have empirically examined the role of monetary aggregate(s) vis-à-vis short-term interest rate as monetary policy instruments, and the impact of State Bank of Pakistan’s transformation into the latter on their relative effectiveness in terms of inflation in Pakistan. Using indicators of ‘persistent changes’ in the underlying behaviours of variables of interest, we found that broad money consistently explains inflation in (i) monetary (ii) transitory and (iii) interest rate regimes. Though its role has receded while moving from the transition to the interest rate regime, the interest rate instrument seems to be positively related to inflation, a phenomenon commonly known as price puzzle. In light of these findings, we recommend that the role of money should not be completely de-emphasised. JEL Classification: E31, E52. Keywords: Monetary Policy Instruments, Price Puzzle, ARDL, Pakistan

Taylor rule and monetary policy transmission mechanism in a new keynesian economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (27) ◽  
pp. 24
Author(s):  
Christopher Cernichiaro Reyna
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
New Keynesian ◽  
Keynesian Model ◽  
Policy Transmission ◽  
Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism

This paper estimates two SVAR models to assess Mexican Monetary policy rate for the period 2000-2015, which are recursively identifid according to Gali and Monacelli (2005) model. This paper shows that monetary policy rate responds to GDP, infltion and exchange rate as Taylor’s Rule predicts. When controlling for General Consumer’s Price Index infltion, monetary policy barely affcts aggregate demand even if exchange rate appreciates, nevertheless GDP diminish after contractive monetary policy takes place. Infltion rate lightly increases after interest rate rises, which does not coincide with New Keynesian predictions. A second model is estimated controlling for underlying infltion. Its results exhibit more interest rate sensitive consumption and net exports, while real exchange rate and GDP change as New Keynesian model predicts. Infltion decreases after monetary policy rise but its flctuations are close to zero. According to Gali (2008) such small changes indicate nominal rigidities existence.

Determinants of Inflation in Vietnam: A VECM Approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (04) ◽  
pp. 26-50
Author(s):  
Ngoc Tran Thi Bich ◽  
Huong Pham Hoang Cam
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper aims to examine the main determinants of inflation in Vietnam during the period from 2002Q1 to 2013Q2. The cointegration theory and the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) approach are used to examine the impact of domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices on inflation in both long and short terms. The results show that while there are long-term relations among inflation and the others, such factors as oil prices, domestic credit, and interest rate, in the short run, have no impact on fluctuations of inflation. Particularly, the budget deficit itself actually has a short-run impact, but its level is fundamentally weak. The cause of the current inflation is mainly due to public's expectations of the inflation in the last period. Although the error correction, from the long-run relationship, has affected inflation in the short run, the coefficient is small and insignificant. In other words, it means that the speed of the adjustment is very low or near zero. This also implies that once the relationship among inflation, domestic credit, interest rate, budget deficit, and crude oil prices deviate from the long-term trend, it will take the economy a lot of time to return to the equilibrium state.

scholarly journals On The Contribution of Interest Expense (Income) on Total Output

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-56
Author(s):  
Ahmed Mehedi Nizam
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Total Output ◽  
Response Analysis ◽  
Panel Var ◽  
Intuitive Reasoning ◽  
Body Of Knowledge ◽  
Interest Income ◽  
Structural Panel ◽  
The Impact

Abstract A decrease in interest rate in traditional view of monetary policy transmission is linked to a lower cost of borrowing which eventually results into a greater spending in investment and a bigger GDP. However, a decrease in interest rate is also linked to a decrease in interest income which, in turn, affects the aggregate demand and total GDP. So far, no concerted effort has been made to investigate this positive inter-relation between interest income and GDP in the existing literature. Here in the first place we intuitively describe the inter-relation between interest income and output and then provide a micro-foundation of our intuitive reasoning in the context of a small endowment economy with finitely-lived identical households. Then we try to uncover the impact of nominal interest income on the macroeconomy using multiplier theory for a panel of some 04 (four) OECD countries. We define and calculate the corresponding multiplier values algebraically and then we empirically measure them using impulse response analysis under structural panel VAR framework. Large, consistent and positive values of the cumulative multipliers indicate a stable positive relationship between nominal interest income and output. Moreover, variance decomposition of GDP shows that a significant portion of the variance in GDP is attributed to interest income under VAR/VECM framework. Finally, we have shown how and where our analysis fits into the existing body of knowledge.

Volatility integration of gold and crude oil prices with the interest rates in India

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Shailesh Rastogi ◽  
Adesh Doifode ◽  
Jagjeevan Kanoujiya ◽  
Satyendra Pratap Singh
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Global Economy ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Price Volatility ◽  
Volatility Spillover ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
The Impact

PurposeCrude oil, gold and interest rates are some of the key indicators of the health of domestic as well as global economy. The purpose of the study is to find the shock volatility and price volatility effects of gold and crude oil market on interest rates in India.Design/methodology/approachThis study finds the mutual and directional association of the volatility of gold, crude oil and interest rates in India. The bi-variate GARCH models (Diagonal VEC GARCH and BEKK GARCH) are applied on the sample data of gold price, crude oil price and yield (interest rate) gathered from November 30, 2015 to November 16, 2020 (weekly basis) to investigate the volatility association including the volatility spillover effect in the three markets.FindingsThe main findings of the study focus on having a long-term conditional correlation between gold and interest rates, but there is no evidence of volatility spillover from gold and crude oil on the interest rates. The findings of the study are of great importance especially to the policymakers, as they state that the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude oil do not adversely impact the interest rates in India. Therefore, the fluctuations in prices of gold and crude may generally impact the economy, but it has nothing to do with interest rate in particular. This implies that domestic and foreign investments in the country will not be affected by gold and crude oil that are largely driven by interest rates in the country.Practical implicationsGold and crude oil are two very important commodities that have their importance not only for domestic affairs but also for international business. They veritably influence the economy including forex exchange for any nation. In addition to this, the researchers believe the findings will provide insights to policymakers, stakeholders and investors.Originality/valueGold and crude oil undoubtedly influence the exchange rates but their impact on the interest rates in an economy is not definite and remains ambiguous owing to the mixed findings of the studies. The lack of studies related to the impact of gold and crude oil on the interest rates, despite them being essentials for the health of any economy is the main motivation of this study. This study is novel as it investigates the volatility impact of crude oil and gold on interest rates and contributes to the existing literature with its findings.

scholarly journals The impact of Musharakah financing on the monetary policy in the Islamic economy

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 139-152
Author(s):  
Hatem Adela
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Economic Activity ◽  
Methodological Framework ◽  
Mathematical Methods ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Return Rates ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to contribute to formulating the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, using the development of the conventional economics, theoretical and mathematical methods. Design/methodology/approach The study based on the inductive and mathematical methods to contribute to economic theory within the methodological framework for Islamic Economics, by using the return rate of Musharakah rather than the interest rate in influence the economic activity and monetary policy. Findings Via replacement, the concept of the interest rate by the return rates of Musharakah. It concludes that the central bank can control the monetary policy, economic activity and the efficient allocation of resources by using the return rates of Musharakah through the framework of Islamic economy. Practical/implications The study is a contribution to formulate the methodological framework for a paradigm of Islamic economics, where it investigates the impact of return rates of Musharakah on the money market and monetary policy, by the mathematical methods used in the conventional economy. Also, the study illustrates the importance of further studies that examine the methodological framework for Islamic Economics. Originality/value The study aims to contribute to formulating the Islamic economic theory, through the return rate of Musharakah financing instead of the interest rate, and its effectiveness of the monetary policy. As well as reformulating the concepts of the investment function, the present value and the marginal efficiency rate of investment according to the Islamic economy approach.

scholarly journals The Impact of Interest Rate Ceilings on Microfinance Industry

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 10
Author(s):  
Ali Saleh Alshebami ◽  
D. M. Khandare
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Research Subject ◽  
Access To Credit ◽  
The Poor ◽  
Good Intention ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

<p>Imposing ceilings on the interest rate has recently become one of the new hottest topics in microfinance industry; various debates have been discussing this issue to know the effect of interest rate ceilings on the supply of credit in particular and on microfinance industry in general. However in spite of the good intention behind these ceilings, there was no absolute result stating that ceilings have really contributed to the improvement or protection of the poor clients, indeed, these ceilings have hurt those low income people instead of helping them, due to these ceilings most of MFIs left the market or reduced their scale due to the inability to continue operating with low interest rate leaving the very poor clients without access to credit. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to review the impact of imposing such ceilings on the interest rates and to find out what alterative solutions can be employed as substitutes for them. This paper is entirely based on the secondary data collected from various records related to microfinance such as microfinance books, official websites and reports, published papers, and other sources related to the research subject.</p>

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