Peer Crowd Identification and Adolescent Health Behaviors: Results From a Statewide Representative Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 40-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey W. Jordan ◽  
Carolyn A. Stalgaitis ◽  
John Charles ◽  
Patrick A. Madden ◽  
Anjana G. Radhakrishnan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Substance Use ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Health Behaviors ◽  
Representative Sample ◽  
Risky Behaviors ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Representative Study ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Peer Crowds

Purpose. Peer crowds are macro-level subcultures that share similarities across geographic areas. Over the past decade, dozens of studies have explored the association between adolescent peer crowds and risk behaviors, and how they can inform public health efforts. However, despite the interest, researchers have not yet reported on crowd size and risk levels from a representative sample, making it difficult for practitioners to apply peer crowd science to interventions. The current study reports findings from the first statewide representative sample of adolescent peer crowd identification and health behaviors. Methods. Weighted data were analyzed from the 2015 Virginia Youth Survey of Health Behaviors ( n = 4,367). Peer crowds were measured via the I-Base Survey™, a photo-based peer crowd survey instrument. Frequencies and confidence intervals of select behaviors including tobacco use, substance use, nutrition, physical activity, and violence were examined to identify high- and low-risk crowds. Logistic regression was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios for each crowd and behavior. Results. Risky behaviors clustered in two peer crowds. Hip Hop crowd identification was associated with substance use, violence, and some depression and suicidal behaviors. Alternative crowd identification was associated with increased risk for some substance use behaviors, depression and suicide, bullying, physical inactivity, and obesity. Mainstream and, to a lesser extent, Popular, identities were associated with decreased risk for most behaviors. Conclusions. Findings from the first representative study of peer crowds and adolescent behavior identify two high-risk groups, providing critical insights for practitioners seeking to maximize public health interventions by targeting high-risk crowds.

scholarly journals COVID-19: Rethinking the Lockdown Groupthink

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ari R. Joffe
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Cost Benefit Analysis ◽  
Health Care Systems ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
School Closures ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Care Systems

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) worldwide pandemic in 2020. In response, most countries in the world implemented lockdowns, restricting their population's movements, work, education, gatherings, and general activities in attempt to “flatten the curve” of COVID-19 cases. The public health goal of lockdowns was to save the population from COVID-19 cases and deaths, and to prevent overwhelming health care systems with COVID-19 patients. In this narrative review I explain why I changed my mind about supporting lockdowns. The initial modeling predictions induced fear and crowd-effects (i.e., groupthink). Over time, important information emerged relevant to the modeling, including the lower infection fatality rate (median 0.23%), clarification of high-risk groups (specifically, those 70 years of age and older), lower herd immunity thresholds (likely 20–40% population immunity), and the difficult exit strategies. In addition, information emerged on significant collateral damage due to the response to the pandemic, adversely affecting many millions of people with poverty, food insecurity, loneliness, unemployment, school closures, and interrupted healthcare. Raw numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths were difficult to interpret, and may be tempered by information placing the number of COVID-19 deaths in proper context and perspective relative to background rates. Considering this information, a cost-benefit analysis of the response to COVID-19 finds that lockdowns are far more harmful to public health (at least 5–10 times so in terms of wellbeing years) than COVID-19 can be. Controversies and objections about the main points made are considered and addressed. Progress in the response to COVID-19 depends on considering the trade-offs discussed here that determine the wellbeing of populations. I close with some suggestions for moving forward, including focused protection of those truly at high risk, opening of schools, and building back better with a economy.

Defining the PrEP care continuum among recently incarcerated men at high risk for HIV infection (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthew Murphy ◽  
Colette Sosnowy ◽  
Brooke Rogers ◽  
Siena Napoleon ◽  
Drew Galipeau ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Hiv Infection ◽  
Care Continuum ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Biomedical Intervention ◽  
Prep Implementation ◽  
Hiv Acquisition ◽  
Risk Of Hiv Acquisition ◽  
Prospective Longitudinal

BACKGROUND HIV disproportionately impacts criminal justice (CJ)-involved individuals, including men who experience incarceration. Men make up the vast majority of those experiencing incarceration as well as those newly diagnosed with HIV infection. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a highly effective biomedical intervention that significantly reduces the risk of HIV acquisition. However, implementation in CJ-systems is limited. Little is known about effective PrEP implementation and use in this unique public health context. OBJECTIVE This article describes a PrEP care continuum for men experiencing incarceration who are at increased risk of HIV acquisition, which can help conceptualize approaches to evaluating PrEP implementation. METHODS Men incarcerated in the Rhode Island Department of Corrections, a correctional system composed of all of the state's sentenced and awaiting trial population, are screened for HIV acquisition risk during the course of routine clinical care. Those identified at high risk for HIV acquisition are referred for evaluation for PrEP initiation and enrollment in this study. Individuals who express interest in initiating PrEP and consent to the study are then followed in a prospective longitudinal cohort. RESULTS The outlined study will enroll 100 men experiencing incarceration at high risk for HIV acquisition prior to release into the community. The goal is to initiate PrEP prior to incarceration and link individuals to PrEP providers in the community, capturing barriers and facilitators to PrEP use during this uniquely vulnerable time period for HIV acquisition. CONCLUSIONS Based on the proposed care continuum and what is known about HIV risk and prevention efforts in the CJ-context, we outline key future research efforts to better understand effective approaches to preventing HIV infection among this vulnerable population. The described approach presents a powerful public health opportunity to help end the HIV epidemic.

scholarly journals EnCLASS: an innovative project merging 2 international surveys (HBSC/ESPAD) among French students

2019 ◽  
Vol 29 (Supplement_4) ◽  
Author(s):  
E Godeau ◽  
V Ehlinger ◽  
S Spilka
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
High School ◽  
Substance Use ◽  
Health Behavior ◽  
Secondary School ◽  
Health Behaviors ◽  
Adolescent Health ◽  
International Level ◽  
School Students ◽  
Health Promotion In Schools

Abstract Problem For two decades, France has taken part in two “competing” school-based, cross-national surveys exploring the health behaviors and well-being of adolescent (Health Behavior in School-aged Children (HBSC) survey, 11-13-15 year-olds) and their substance use (European School Project on Alcohol and other Drugs (ESPAD), 15-16 year-olds). Description of problem Since 2010, French data is provided at national level by grade rather than age. This allowed providing a continuous observation of health behaviors among adolescents, looking at the temporal spread of substance use and providing a better understanding of the role of school as a setting for adolescents’ health. But the difficulty of participating every 4 years in two big surveys remained. Effects of changes In 2018, France decided to conduct the 2 surveys in a unified and simultaneous way across middle- and high-school. This project is called ’National Survey in Middle- and High-school for Adolescents on Health and Substances’, EnCLASS, explicit acronym easy to pronounce and remember in French. If the main objective of “merging” these surveys is to improve the monitoring of health behaviours and substance use throughout adolescence, it also allows a significant gain regarding preparation, coordination and organization of the fieldwork, hence of overall costs, while ensuring perfect comparability of data at international level. Evolution of data visualization on substance use will be used to illustrate the challenges and improvements of such a process, based on data collected in 2018 among more than 20,000 representative secondary-school students. Lessons In addition to a greater facility of interpreting and reading findings, presenting data throughout secondary school grades improves its impact and use in a public health perspective and allowing identifying operational targets for prevention and health promotion in schools, as classes are their main settings. Key messages EnCLASS is unique in Europe, it ensures an excellent comparability of data at international level while providing an innovative national monitoring of adolescent health behavior, including drug use. Further, by its improved quality, perspective and relevance, EnCLASS can contribute to Public health policies analysis regarding school-students in France in a less expensive and better way.

scholarly journals Relationships between Problematic Cannabis Use and Risky Behaviors in Spanish Adolescents

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (17) ◽  
pp. 3029
Author(s):  
Raquel Alarcó-Rosales ◽  
Miriam Sánchez-SanSegundo ◽  
Rosario Ferrer-Cascales ◽  
Natalia Albaladejo-Blázquez ◽  
Nicolás Ruiz-Robledillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Motor Vehicle ◽  
Motor Vehicle Accident ◽  
Risky Behaviors ◽  
Cannabis Use ◽  
Physical Assault ◽  
Cannabis Abuse ◽  
The Past ◽  
Vehicle Accident ◽  
Increased Risk

This study examined the relations between problematic cannabis use, physical assault, and getting involved in a motor vehicle accident under the influence of cannabis in a sample of adolescents randomly selected from 25 public and semiprivate high schools in Alicante (Spain). Participants (n = 648) completed The Spanish National Standardized Survey about drug use in high school adolescents (ESTUDES, 2017), which includes the cannabis abuse screening test (CAST). Prevalence of cannabis use across the life-span and within the past 30 days was 37.5% and 17.4%, respectively. CAST scores were associated with an increased risk of driving under the effects of cannabis, riding shotgun, and physical assault, but not with an increased risk of having a motor vehicle accident. There were no differences between boys and girls in the association of problematic cannabis use with risky behaviors. This result highlights the importance of comprehensive prevention and education strategies for adolescents at high risk of cannabis use.

scholarly journals Identifying Vulnerable Populations in Subtropical Brisbane, Australia: A Guide for Heatwave Preparedness and Health Promotion

2014 ◽  
Vol 2014 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Margaret Loughnan ◽  
Nigel Tapper ◽  
Thu Phan
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Promotion ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Spatiotemporal Analysis ◽  
Prevention Policy ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Heat Events

Building healthy societies is a key step towards climate resilient communities. Ill health is related to increased risk during heat events and is disproportionally distributed within and between communities. To understand the differences in the spatial distribution of climate related health risks and how this will change in the future we have undertaken a spatiotemporal analysis of heatwave risks in urban populations in Brisbane, Australia. The aim of this was to advise emergency managers and public health authorities of high-risk areas during extreme heat events (EHEs). The spatial distribution of heat related morbidity identified areas of high healthcare service demand during EHEs. An index of risk was developed based on social and environmental determinants of vulnerability. Regression analysis was used to determine the key drivers of heat related morbidity from the index. A weighted map of population vulnerability was produced which identified the high risk areas and provided key information to target public health interventions and heat stress prevention policy. The predicted changes in high risk populations such as the proportion of elderly people living in urban areas were also mapped to support longer term adaptation and develop health care infrastructure and health promotion strategies.

scholarly journals Performance and modification of EGCRISC among hepatitis C virus high-risk groups

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. M. El-Ghitany ◽  
Y. M. Alkassabany ◽  
A. G. Farghaly
Keyword(s):  
Hepatitis C Virus ◽  
Hepatitis C ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Sex Workers ◽  
Screening Tool ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Hcv Infection ◽  
Human Immune Deficiency Virus ◽  
Hiv Patients ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract We have previously shown that the Egyptian Hepatitis C Virus Risk Score (EGCRISC), an Egyptian hepatitis C virus (HCV) risk-based screening tool, to be valid and cost-effective. Certain behaviours, occupations and diseases have been shown to be associated with an increased risk of exposure to HCV infection and constitute a major population reservoir of HCV infection. This study investigated the efficacy of EGCRISC in selected high-risk groups by testing 863 participants from four groups: slaughterhouse workers, illicit drug users (IDUs), female sex workers and human immune deficiency virus (HIV) patients. Data for this study were collected on EGCRISC and another pre-designed risk factor questionnaire. Sera were tested for HCV antibodies by ELISA. EGCRISC, at lower cut-off points, showed significantly good performance (P < 0.05) in all four groups except for females <45 years, but was reliable in detecting HCV cases (sensitivity: 84.21% and negative predictive value: 94.5%). Specific scores for IDUs and HIV patients were developed that showed high accuracy (P < 0.001). A modified EGCRISC for high-risk groups (EGCRISC-HRGs) was shown to be a valid tool that is recommended for use in high-risk populations if no other specific screening tool is available or universal screening is applied. EGCRISC for IDUs (EGCRISC-IDUs) and EGCRISC for HIV patients (EGCRISC-HIV) are useful tools for preselecting potentially HCV-infected cases for further testing in settings where serological analysis is not readily available or accessible.

Impact of Targeted Immunotherapies and Novel Cytogenetic and Clinical Risk Groups on Outcome after Allogeneic Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant (AlloHCT) for Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia (ALL): The Mayo Clinic Cohort

Blood ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 134 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. 2588-2588
Author(s):  
Zaid Abdel Rahman ◽  
Michael G. Heckman ◽  
Kevin C. Miller ◽  
Patricia Greipp ◽  
Matthew R Spiegel ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Tyrosine Kinase ◽  
Targeted Therapies ◽  
Mayo Clinic ◽  
Lower Risk ◽  
Acute Gvhd ◽  
Chronic Gvhd ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Impact

Introduction Novel high-risk groups have been identified in adult ALL, including secondary (sALL) and Philadelphia-like ALL (Ph-like, based on CRLF2, IgH, ABL2, JAK2 and other tyrosine kinase translocations), and those with minimal residual disease >0.1% (MRD+) after induction therapy. Novel targeted therapies are now routinely incorporated into 1st line regimens, including tyrosine kinase inhibitors (BCR-ABL1-pos), rituximab (CD20+) and blinatumomab (Blina) for MRD+. The impact of these novel high risk groups and therapies after alloHCT is unknown; therefore, we evaluated their impact on overall survival (OS), relapse rate (REL), non-relapse mortality (NRM) and acute and chronic GVHD. Methods We evaluated pts receiving 1st Allo-HCT for ALL at Mayo Clinic (Rochester, Phoenix, and Jacksonville) from 2008-2018 for outcomes of interest, specifically the impact of novel therapies and risk groups. Associations of patient factors with outcomes were examined using univariable (UVA) and multivariable (MVA) Cox proportional hazards regression models, where the cause-specific hazard of the given outcome was modeled to account for the competing risk of death. Results We identified 261 consecutive AlloHCT recipients during the study period. Median age at transplant was 48 years (18-72) and 147 (56.3%) were male. The median comorbidity (HCT-CI) score was 2 (0-8). 213 pts (81.6%) had B-lineage ALL, of which 85 (32.6%) were BCR-ABL-pos, 17 (6.5%) Ph-like (identified by FISH), 16 (6.1%) hypoploidy/near triploidy (Hy/Tri), and 67 (25.7%) pre-B ALL NOS. The remaining 48 (18.4%) had T-ALL. 30 pts (11.5%) had sALL (i.e. prior chemo/radiotherapy for another malignancy). HyperCVAD was the most common 1st line regimen (68.2%). 243 (93.1%) pts achieved Complete Remission (CR1) after induction therapy, and 203 (77.8%) were in CR1 at the time of alloHCT. Blina was administered for MRD+ in 14 pts (5.4%), and for relapsed/refractory ALL (R/R) in 13 (27% of R/R pts), 7 of whom received Blina as initial therapy for R/R. Donors were matched unrelated in 149 (57.1%), matched related in 98 (37.5%), and haploidentical in 14 (5.4%). Peripheral blood (PB) grafts were used in 233 (89.3%). 103 (54.5%) were donor:recipient (D:R) sex-matched, and 86 D:R mismatched [47 (24.9%) M:F; and 39 (20.6%) F:M]. Myeloablative conditioning was used for the majority (78.5%) mostly with Cy/TBI (60.5%). Standard GVHD prophylaxis regimens were used. Outcomes Median follow-up after transplant was 22.4 months (0.5-135), and 51 (19.5%) had REL. The 1, 2 and 5-year survival rates were 71.9%, 64.9%, and 54.1%, respectively (Figure 1). Acute GVHD developed in 144 (55.2%) and chronic GVHD in 100 (38.3%). Ph-like ALL, Blina for MRD+, Blina for R/R, sALL and CD20-pos had no independent impact on OS. In contrast, age>60, Hy/Tri, and >CR1 at alloHCT were associated with worse OS in UVA, however, in MVA only pre-B ALL NOS was associated with better OS. Female:male D:R status was associated with inferior OS. Blina for R/R disease was associated with increased risk of REL in UVA [HR 5.26 95% CI (1.33, 20.00), p=0.017], whereas other novel high risk groups had no impact on REL. In contrast, T-ALL, Hy/Tri and >CR1 at AlloHCT were associated with increased REL in UVA, but only T-ALL and Hy/Tri continued to predict for increased REL in MVA. Secondary ALL was associated with increased NRM in UVA [HR 1.96 95% CI (1.07, 3.57), p=0.028], whereas other novel high risk groups had no impact on NRM. In contrast, age>60, >CR1 at AlloHCT and D:R sex mismatch were associated with higher NRM in UVA, but only sex mismatch and >CR1 at AlloHCT were associated with higher NRM in MVA. TBI use was associated with higher risk of acute GvHD (p=0.008) and ATG use with lower risk chronic GVHD (p<0.001). Similarly non-PB grafts were associated with a lower risk of chronic GVHD (p=0.005). Results for OS, REL, NRM, acute and chronic GVHD analysis are shown in Table 1. Conclusion Novel high risk groups (CD20+, Ph-like and sALL) do not appear to adversely impact OS after alloHCT, although sALL was associated with increased risk of NRM. Interestingly, pre-B-ALL NOS appear to be associated with favorable OS. Novel targeted therapies also do not independently predict outcome, with the exception of Blina for R/R ALL which may be associated with REL after subsequent alloHCT (a subgroup for whom novel maintenance strategies should be explored). Our analysis highlights the importance of allo-HCT for novel high risk ALL subgroups. Disclosures Patnaik: Stem Line Pharmaceuticals.: Membership on an entity's Board of Directors or advisory committees. Kharfan-Dabaja:Daiichi Sankyo: Consultancy; Pharmacyclics: Consultancy. Foran:Agios: Honoraria, Research Funding.

Risk Of Solid Subsequent Malignant Neoplasms (SMNs) With Extended Follow-Up Of Childhood Hodgkin Lymphoma (HL) Survivors Is Comparable To The Risk In Known High-Risk Groups Within The General Population: Report From The Late Effects Study Group (LESG)

Blood ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 122 (21) ◽  
pp. 2992-2992
Author(s):  
Smita Bhatia ◽  
Cor van den Bos ◽  
Can-Lan Sun ◽  
Jillian Birch ◽  
Lisa Diller ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Colorectal Cancer ◽  
Lung Cancer ◽  
High Risk ◽  
General Population ◽  
Clin Oncol ◽  
Cumulative Incidence ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Increased Risk

Abstract Background We describe the pattern and incidence of SMNs with 10 additional years of follow-up of an international cohort (Bhatia, N Engl J Med, 1996; Bhatia, J Clin Oncol, 2003) of children with HL diagnosed between 1955 and 1986 at age 16 y or younger. Methods Medical record review was used to identify SMNs, define vital status and describe therapeutic exposures. Pathology reports served to validate SMNs. Cumulative incidence (CI) utilized competing risk methods. Standardized incidence ratio (SIR) and absolute excess risk (AER/10,000 p-y) utilized age-, gender- and year-matched rates in the general population. Cox regression techniques (using calendar time as time scale) identified predictors of SMN risk. Results The cohort included 1023 patients diagnosed with HL at a median age of 11 y, and followed for a median of 26.8 y (IQR, 16.4-33.7). Eighty-nine percent had received radiation, either alone (22%), or in combination with chemotherapy (67%). Alkylating agent (AA) score was defined as follows: 1 AA for 6 m = AA score of 1; 2 AA for 6 m or 1 AA for 12 m = AA score of 2, etc. The AA score was 1-2 for 54% and 3+ for 16%; 30% did not receive AA. A total of 188 solid SMNs developed in 139 patients (breast [54], thyroid [24], lung [11], colorectal [11], bone [8], other malignancies [80]. Table summarizes SIR (95%CI), CI, and AER by attained age. The cohort was at an 11.1-fold increased risk of developing solid SMNs (excluding non-melanoma skin cancers) compared with the general population (95% CI, 9.4-13.0). CI of solid SMNs was 25.2% at 40 y from HL diagnosis (Fig 1). Among patients aged ≥40 y, 79% of total AER was attributable to breast, thyroid, colorectal and lung SMNs (Table). Thirty-seven patients developed >1 solid SMN; the cumulative incidence of the 2nd SMN was 19.6% at 10 years from diagnosis of the 1st SMN. Breast Cancer: Females (n=41) had a 20.9-fold increased risk, and males (n=3) a 45.8-fold increased risk c/w general population. Age at HL of 10-16 y vs. <10 y (RR=9.7, 95%CI, 2.3-40.6, p=0.002), and exposure to chest radiation (RR=5.9, 95%CI, 1.4-25.9) were associated with increased risk. Among females aged 10-16 y at chest radiation, cumulative incidence was 24.3% by age 45 y, as opposed to 2.6% for those <10 y, p=0.001 (Fig 2). Exposure to AA was associated with a lower risk (RR=0.4, p=0.002). Diagnosis of HL after 1975 was associated with decreased risk (RR=0.25, 95%CI 0.12-0.53), explained, in part by the increasing use of AA after 1975 (78%) vs. before 1975 (61%). By age 40 y, the risk of breast cancer among females exposed to chest radiation at age 10-16 y (18.2%) was comparable to the risk for BRCA1 mutation carriers (15%-20% by age 40 y; Chen, J Clin Oncol, 2007). Lung cancer: Ten of 11 lung cancer cases were diagnosed in males (males: SIR=24.7; females: SIR=3.2, p=0.05); all had received neck/chest radiation. The CI of lung cancer among males was 3.8% by age 50 y, comparable to the risk among male smokers (2% by age 50 y, Bilello, Clinics Chest Med, 2002). Colorectal cancer: There was a 11.5-fold increased risk c/w general population. The CI among those with abdominal/pelvic radiation was 4.1% by age 50 y ; this risk is higher than that observed in individuals with ≥2 first degree relatives affected with colorectal cancer (1.2% by age 50 y, Butterworth, Eur J Cancer, 2006). Thyroid cancer: Survivors had a 22.2-fold increased risk; all developed within radiation field. Females (RR=4.3, 95%CI 1.8-10.4) were at increased risk. Conclusion In this cohort of HL survivors with 20,344 p-y of follow-up, the greatest excess risk of SMNs among those > 40 y was attributable to breast, thyroid, colorectal and lung SMNs. Observed risks for the most common SMNs were comparable to or greater than known high-risk groups within the general population. Disclosures: No relevant conflicts of interest to declare.

The Glasgow whipple risk score to predict pancreas-specific complications after pancreaticoduodenectomy.

2015 ◽  
Vol 33 (3_suppl) ◽  
pp. 394-394
Author(s):  
Lavanniya Kumar Palani Velu ◽  
Vishnuvardhan Chandrabalan ◽  
Ross Carter ◽  
Colin McKay ◽  
Donald McMillan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Serum Amylase ◽  
Risk Group ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
High Risk Group ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Prolonged Stay ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Clinically Significant ◽  
Serum Crp

394 Background: Pancreas-specific complications (PSC), comprising postoperative pancreatic fistula, post-pancreatectomy haemorrhage, and intra-abdominal collections, are drivers of morbidity following pancreaticoduodenectomy (PD). Intra-operatively derived pancreatic gland texture is a major determinant of postoperative PSC. We have previously demonstrated that a postoperative day 0 (PoD0) serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L is an objective surrogate of pancreatic texture, and is associated with PSC. We sought to refine the PSC risk prediction model by including serial measurements of serum C-reactive protein (CRP). Methods: 230 consecutive patients undergoing PD between 2008 and 2014 were included in the study. Routine serum investigations, including amylase and CRP were performed from the pre-operative day. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was used to identify a threshold value of serum CRP associated with clinically significant PSC. Results: 95 (41.3%) patients experienced a clinically significant PSC. ROC analysis identified post-operative day 2 (PoD2) serum CRP of 180 mg/L as the optimal threshold (P=0.005) associated with clinically significant PSC, a prolonged stay in critical care (P =0.032), and a relaparotomy (P = 0.045). Patients with a PoD0 serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L who then developed a PoD2 serum CRP ≥ 180 mg/L had a higher incidence of postoperative complications. Patients were categorised into high, intermediate and low risk groups based on PoD0 serum amylase and PoD2 serum CRP. Patients in the high risk group (PoD0 serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L and PoD2 serum CRP ≥ 180 mg/l) had significantly higher incidence of PSC, a return to theatre, prolonged lengths stay (all P≤ 0.05) and a four-fold increase in perioperative mortality compared patients in the intermediate and low risk groups (7 deaths in the high risk group versus 2 and nil in the intermediate and low risk groups respectively). Conclusions: A high risk profile, defined as PoD0 serum amylase ≥ 130 IU/L and PoD2 serum CRP ≥ 180 mg/l, should raise the clinician’s awareness of the increased risk of clinically significant PSC and a complicated postoperative course following pancreaticoduodenectomy.

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