scholarly journals The Contagion of Pneumonia in Older Persons: An Application of the Bass Diffusion Model

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 233372142094930
Author(s):  
Laurence L. Garcia
Keyword(s):  
Information System ◽  
Diffusion Model ◽  
Older Persons ◽  
Annual Reports ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
Service Information ◽  
Bass Diffusion ◽  
Bass Diffusion Model ◽  
Health Field ◽  
Insight Into

This aims to provide an understanding of the spread of pneumonia through analysis of the interaction between infected and potentially infected. Data from 2010 to 2018 on Pneumonia morbidity among older persons age 65 and above was extracted from the Department of Health Field Health Service Information System (FHSIS) annual reports. The data were used to represent the cumulative adopters by fitting them to the Bass diffusion model using the Bass Forecasting Spreadsheet. The number of new adopters was graphed to forecast the diffusion of Pneumonia. The number of cases is expected to increase. The adoption rate in 2024 will be around 45% of the current population. Morbidity of pneumonia is expected to peak in the year 2200, 190 years after the first data. The use of the model provided an insight into the cumulative nature of pneumonia infection due to the interaction between infected and the potentially infected.

scholarly journals Combining Diffusion and Grey Models Based on Evolutionary Optimization Algorithms to Forecast Motherboard Shipments

2012 ◽  
Vol 2012 ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Fu-Kwun Wang ◽  
Yu-Yao Hsiao ◽  
Ku-Kuang Chang
Keyword(s):  
Diffusion Model ◽  
Optimization Algorithms ◽  
Evolutionary Optimization ◽  
Grey Model ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Combined Model ◽  
Data Points ◽  
Evolutionary Optimization Algorithms ◽  
Bass Diffusion ◽  
Bass Diffusion Model

It is important for executives to predict the future trends. Otherwise, their companies cannot make profitable decisions and investments. The Bass diffusion model can describe the empirical adoption curve for new products and technological innovations. The Grey model provides short-term forecasts using four data points. This study develops a combined model based on the rolling Grey model (RGM) and the Bass diffusion model to forecast motherboard shipments. In addition, we investigate evolutionary optimization algorithms to determine the optimal parameters. Our results indicate that the combined model using a hybrid algorithm outperforms other methods for the fitting and forecasting processes in terms of mean absolute percentage error.

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