Applying Synthetic Control Method to Estimate the Impact of the Lava Jato Operation on the Worldwide Governance Indicators in Brazil

2021 ◽  
pp. 2631309X2110178
Author(s):  
Eduardo Carvalho Nepomuceno Alencar ◽  
Bryant Jackson-Green
Keyword(s):  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
Regulatory Quality ◽  
Legal Judgments ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Control Of Corruption

In 2014, the most prominent anti-corruption investigation in Latin America called Lava Jato, exposed a Brazilian corruption scheme with reverberations in 61 countries, resulting in legal judgments for nearly 5 billion USD in reimbursements thus far. This article applies the synthetic control method on data from 135 countries (2002–2018) to test the hypothesis that Lava Jato impacts the Worldwide Governance Indicators in Brazil. The findings reveal that Lava Jato negatively affects control of corruption, the rule of law, and regulatory quality. There are signs of possible improvement in at least the corruption and the rule of law measures. This paper brings value to the criminological body of literature, notably lacking in the Global South.

scholarly journals Corruption, governance and economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: a need for the prioritisation of reform policies

2014 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 316-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kamil Omoteso ◽  
Hakeem Ishola Mobolaji
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
Data Framework ◽  
Regulatory Quality ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Control Of Corruption ◽  
Ssa Countries

Purpose – This study aims to investigate the impact of governance indices (especially control of corruption) on economic growth in some selected Sub-Sahara African (SSA) countries with a view to making policy recommendations. Specifically, the study attempts to assess whether either governance reforms (especially those relating to control of corruption) or simultaneous policy reforms could have any impact on the growth of the sample SSA countries. Design/methodology/approach – The governance indicators used in this study were drawn from the PRS Group and the Worldwide Governance Indicators for 2002-2009, while the real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita growth data were obtained from the World Bank database. The study covered 47 SSA countries, and it adopted the panel data framework, the fixed effect, the random effect and the maximum likelihood estimation techniques for the analyses. Findings – The study found that political stability and regulatory quality indicators have growth-enhancing features, as they impact on economic growth in the region significantly, while government effectiveness impacts negatively on economic growth in the region. Despite, several anti-corruption policies in the region, the impact of corruption control on economic growth is not very obvious. The study also found that simultaneous implementation of the voice and accountability and the rule of law indicators has more positive impact on economic growth in the region. Both policies are complementary, and, hence, can be pursued simultaneously. Research limitations/implications – The results suggest that reform efforts that aim at enhancing accountability, regulatory quality, political stability and the rule of law have more growth-enhancing features and, thus, should be given more priority over reform efforts that singly address the issue of control of corruption due to the endemic, systemic and ubiquitous nature of corruption in the region. Practical implications – The study suggests that reform efforts that aim at enhancing accountability, regulatory quality and rule of law have more growth-enhancing features and, therefore, should be given more priority. Originality/value – Many previous studies attempted to examine the impact of corruption on economies, but this paper tries to assess the effect of corruption control and other governance indices on economic growth in the most vulnerable region of the world, the SSA. Besides, the study adopts the panel data framework which makes it possible to allow for differences in the form of unobservable individual country effects.

scholarly journals When is a Match Sufficient? A Score-based Balance Metric for the Synthetic Control Method

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 209-228
Author(s):  
Layla Parast ◽  
Priscillia Hunt ◽  
Beth Ann Griffin ◽  
David Powell
Keyword(s):  
Los Angeles ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Control Unit ◽  
Treated Group ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Donor Pool ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Mean ◽  
The Impact

AbstractIn some applications, researchers using the synthetic control method (SCM) to evaluate the effect of a policy may struggle to determine whether they have identified a “good match” between the control group and treated group. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of the mean and maximum Absolute Standardized Mean Difference (ASMD) as a test of balance between a synthetic control unit and treated unit, and provide guidance on what constitutes a poor fit when using a synthetic control. We explore and compare other potential metrics using a simulation study. We provide an application of our proposed balance metric to the 2013 Los Angeles (LA) Firearm Study [9]. Using Uniform Crime Report data, we apply the SCM to obtain a counterfactual for the LA firearm-related crime rate based on a weighted combination of control units in a donor pool of cities. We use this counterfactual to estimate the effect of the LA Firearm Study intervention and explore the impact of changing the donor pool and pre-intervention duration period on resulting matches and estimated effects. We demonstrate how decision-making about the quality of a synthetic control can be improved by using ASMD. The mean and max ASMD clearly differentiate between poor matches and good matches. Researchers need better guidance on what is a meaningful imbalance between synthetic control and treated groups. In addition to the use of gap plots, the proposed balance metric can provide an objective way of determining fit.

scholarly journals Assessment of the impact of the employment roadmap on the unemployment rate of the Republic of Kazakhstan: synthetic control method

2021 ◽  
pp. 121-130
Author(s):  
T. S. Sokira ◽  
Z. T. Myshbayeva
Keyword(s):  
Unemployment Rate ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Action Plan ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Donor Pool ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Weighted Combination

The purpose of the research is to assess the impact of the action plan of the Employment Roadmap on the unemployment rate in Kazakhstan.Methodology. Synthetic Control Method was used in this paper. The method, which compares one or more units exposed to the event and determines what would have happened if the unit had not been treated. In other words, this method creates a weighted combination of control states to create a single «synthetic» control group, in order to approach the counterfactual unit in Kazakhstan in the absence of a plan or Roadmap.The originality / value of the research based on the analysis, panel data from Kazakhstan and 13 donor pool countries for the period 2000-2019 were taken for modeling.Findings: As a result of the study, it was revealed that the unemployment rate would have been 2% higher in 2019 if Kazakhstan had not adopted an action plan in the form of an Employment Roadmap in 2009.

scholarly journals Evaluating the Impact of Non-Financial IMF Programs Using the Synthetic Control Method

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (109) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Monique Newiak ◽  
Tim Willems ◽  
◽  
Keyword(s):  
Control Method ◽  
Synthetic Control ◽  
Synthetic Control Method ◽  
Imf Programs ◽  
The Impact

scholarly journals Rule of Law, Corruption Control, Governance, and Economic Growth in Managing Renewable and Nonrenewable Energy Consumption in South Asia

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (20) ◽  
pp. 10637
Author(s):  
Haider Mahmood ◽  
Muhammad Tanveer ◽  
Maham Furqan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Political Stability ◽  
Energy Sources ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
Governance Indicators ◽  
Regulatory Quality ◽  
Nonrenewable Energy

Strong governance is vital for developing environmental policies to promote renewable energy consumption and discourage nonrenewable energy sources. The present research explores the effect of economic growth and different governance indicators on renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption in Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka using data from 1996 to 2019. For this purpose, the study uses different econometric techniques to find the long-term effects of the rule of law, regulatory quality, corruption control, government effectiveness, political stability, voice and accountability, and economic growth on oil, natural gas, coal, hydroelectricity, and renewable energy consumption. The results show that economic growth has a positive impact on all investigated renewable and nonrenewable energy sources. Additionally, regulatory quality measures also increase all types of renewable and nonrenewable energy consumption. Except for natural gas, the impact of the rule of law is negative, and government effectiveness positively affects all energy sources. Control of corruption has a positive effect on natural gas consumption. Political stability has a negative effect on nonrenewable energy sources and a positive impact on renewable energy sources. The magnitudes of the effects of economic growth and most governance indicators are found to be larger on nonrenewable sources than renewable sources. The testing of the energy consumption and governance nexus is scant in global literature and is missing in South Asian literature. Hence, the study results contribute to how South Asian economies can be more sustainable in energy use by enhancing governance indicators in the economies. Particularly, the results imply that these countries should focus on improving the rule of law, corruption control, governance, regulatory quality, political stability, and economic growth to help maintain a sustainable balance of renewable and nonrenewable energy sources. Moreover, this issue needs further attention in developing countries, as governance indicators would play an effective role in promoting sustainable energy.

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