Toward a uniform earthquake loss model across Central America

2021 ◽  
pp. 875529302110438
Author(s):  
Alejandro Calderón ◽  
Vitor Silva ◽  
Matilde Avilés ◽  
Rosalín Méndez ◽  
Rolando Castillo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Central America ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Loss Model ◽  
Total Replacement ◽  
Earthquake Loss

This study presents a probabilistic earthquake loss model for Central America, which is used to evaluate the indicators of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction (SFDRR). The exposure, vulnerability, and hazard components of the model were established using a uniform methodology for all the countries. Earthquake risk is expressed according to three indicators: mortality (A-1), population affected (B-1), and economic losses (C-1). Exposure results indicate that over 9.1 million structures (with an economic value of US$635 billion) are exposed to seismic hazard in the region. The risk results indicate an average annual human loss of 0.7 fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants, an average number of 35 people affected per 100,000 inhabitants, and an average annual economic loss of US$990 million. This represents 0.43% and 0.16% of the regional gross domestic product (GDP) and total replacement value, respectively. Guatemala, Nicaragua, and El Salvador present the highest risk, contributing with 75% of the absolute economic losses and 84% of the average annual fatalities in the region.

scholarly journals “DISASTER RESILIENT SOCIETY WITH YOUTH” PROJECT OF THE CIVIL DEFENCE ORGANIZATION AIMING DISASTER RISKS REDUCTION

2018 ◽  
Vol XLII-3/W4 ◽  
pp. 205-209
Author(s):  
Y. Eker ◽  
M. Yılmabaşar
Keyword(s):  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Disaster Management ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Practical Training ◽  
Turkish Republic ◽  
Sendai Framework ◽  
Civil Defence

<p><strong>Abstract.</strong> The loss of lives, injuries and the damage on economies that occur as a result of disasters is increasing due to the changing nature. People need to adopt themselves to be able to resist against disasters. Nevertheless, minimizing the costs of disasters can achieved not individually but rather by a well-organized social system. This requires a decentralized disaster management system that would allow participation of not only central authorities but also widespread volunteers. Also, pre-emptive cautions to raise public awareness and capabilities about how to struggle against disasters are very important component of being well organized. Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC) Civil Defence Organization has constituted the “Disaster Resilient Society with Youth Project” to reduce number of loss of life, injuries and economic loss as global targets envisaged in Sendai Framework for Action. This project is being implemented in line with the objects of Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction which is inspired from the principle of “Disaster risk reduction requires an all-of-society engagement and partnership. While the project is managed by Civil Defence Organization, it is implemented by the participation of volunteers. The project is the last phase of a series of projects which have been realized for 35 years in line with the same goal of reducing loss of lives, injuries and economic loss while various concepts targeted to address different levels of the society. The objective of the Project is to firstly choose some individuals and then train them to have disaster consciousness and awareness about disaster management cycle in society. These people would potentially provide support to responding official teams in case of an unexpected disaster. For this reason, the project also involves practical training and practices as complementary to the theoretical education phase. In the first place, a four year road map is determined to improve the project by identifying disruptions and weaknesses compared to similar projects around the world. The establishment of target groups of the Project within youth is important not only to improve the effectiveness of responding phase, but also to maintain a sustainable system for the progression of the Project. In order to encourage and increase the participation of volunteers to the Project, it is planned to issue certificates, badges and prize for those who would be successful during the training phase. In order to achieve the goals of the Project, the project managers seek collaboration of universities, local authorities, central authorities and nongovernmental organizations which are seen as stakeholders.</p>

scholarly journals Earthquake predictions and scientific forecast: dangers and opportunities for a technical and anthropological perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 309-315 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edgar Tapia-Hernández ◽  
Elizabeth A. Reddy ◽  
Laura Josabeth Oros-Aviles
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Earthquake Prediction ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Economic Effects ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Anthropological Perspective ◽  
Technical Data ◽  
Earthquake Predictions ◽  
Informal Settings

Supporting earthquake risk management with clear seismic communication may necessitate encounters with various popular misapprehensions regarding earthquake prediction. Drawing on technical data as well as insights from anthropology and economics, this paper addresses common and scientifically-unsupported ideas about earthquake prediction, as well as the state of science-based studies regarding statistical forecasting and physical precursors. The authors reflect on documented social and economic effects of unsubstantiated earthquake predictions, and argue that these may be dangerous but may also present certain opportunities for outreach and education in formal and informal settings. This paper is written in light of the importance that the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction has placed on coordination and communication within and among diverse organizations and agencies as well as by recent popularity of so-called earthquake prediction in Mexico.

scholarly journals Daily Precipitation Threshold for Rainstorm and Flood Disaster in the Mainland of China: An Economic Loss Perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 407
Author(s):  
Wenhui Liu ◽  
Jidong Wu ◽  
Rumei Tang ◽  
Mengqi Ye ◽  
Jing Yang
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Precipitation ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Flood Disaster ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Flood Disasters ◽  
Precipitation Threshold ◽  
The Mainland Of China ◽  
The Relationship

Exploring precipitation threshold from an economic loss perspective is critical for rainstorm and flood disaster risk assessment under climate change. Based on the daily gridded precipitation dataset and direct economic losses (DELs) of rainstorm and flood disasters in the mainland of China, this paper first filtered a relatively reasonable disaster-triggering daily precipitation threshold (DDPT) combination according to the relationship between extreme precipitation days and direct economic loss (DEL) rates at province level and then comprehensively analyzed the spatial landscape of DDPT across China. The results show that (1) the daily precipitation determined by the combination of a 10 mm fixed threshold and 99.3th percentile is recognized as the optimal DDPT of rainstorm and flood disasters, and the correlation coefficient between annual extreme precipitation days and DEL rates reached 0.45 (p < 0.01). (2) The optimal DDPT decreases from southeast (up to 87 mm) to northwest (10 mm) across China, and the DDPTs of 7 out of 31 provinces are lower than 25 mm, while 5 provinces are higher than 50 mm on average. These results suggest that DDPTs exist with large spatial heterogeneity across China, and adopting regional differentiated DDPT is helpful for conducting effective disaster risk analysis.

Natural Hazards Governance in Algeria

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Djillali Benouar
Keyword(s):  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Population Increase ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Risk Governance ◽  
Rapid Urbanization ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
The Government

Natural hazard governance has become complicated. This is because many recent disasters had the biggest impact in urban areas with a large concentration of people heavily dependent on infrastructure and services. The rapid urbanization, population increase, development of critical engineering works, industrialization of cities with modern types of buildings, and the concentration of population living in hazardous areas are matter of growing concern, as they are likely to contribute to heavier loss of life and increasing economic losses in future disaster damage. The El-Asnam (formerly Orléansville) earthquake of October 10, 1980 (Ms 7.4) raised the awareness of both the Algerian government and the civil society of the need for disaster risk reduction policy. Since then, disaster risk reduction has been on the agenda of the government programs, and concrete measures have been undertaken in organization, legislation, institutions, training, education, communication, and information. The government has made significant efforts to improve the natural hazard governance. It has made a substantial impact on academic research and higher education in some disciplines of engineering and natural science in the country’s largest universities. Risk governance for natural hazard in Algeria will be seen here in light of the implementation mechanisms, the main achievements and progress, the new legal and regulatory tools and mechanisms, and cooperation aspects. In conclusion there will be a discussion about global evaluation and perspectives.

Can education reduce Middle Eastern fatalistic attitude regarding earthquake disasters?

2014 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 343-355 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hoda Baytiyeh ◽  
Mohamad K. Naja
Keyword(s):  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Social Issues ◽  
Middle Eastern ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Social Progress ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Reduction Strategies ◽  
Risk Reduction Strategies

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to discuss the unique and necessary role that Middle Eastern educational institutions must play to reduce the negative influence of fatalism regarding risk perception and disasters. Design/methodology/approach – This paper is based on conceptual analysis and real situational cases to confirm the existing fatalistic attitudes in the Middle Eastern communities and shows how education can be used to reduce and limit the negative effects of such fatalism on earthquake risk mitigation. Findings – The paper calls for the integration of critical thinking along with disaster risk education throughout the schools’ system to reduce the dominating culture of fatalism and to facilitate the implementation of disaster risk reduction strategies in the Middle Eastern communities. In addition, the assistance of the religion instructors and clergy, in reducing fatalistic attitudes has positive implications. Originality/value – The paper represents an effort to accelerate the implementation of earthquake disaster risk reduction strategies in the Middle Eastern vulnerable communities. It uncovers the mask on one of the most critical social issues that has for long time hindered social progress in the Middle East region.

scholarly journals Exposure to natural hazard events unassociated with policy change for improved disaster risk reduction

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Nohrstedt ◽  
Maurizio Mazzoleni ◽  
Charles F. Parker ◽  
Giuliano Di Baldassarre
Keyword(s):  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Natural Hazards ◽  
Policy Change ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Natural Hazard ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Event Frequency ◽  
The World ◽  
Robust Result

AbstractNatural hazard events provide opportunities for policy change to enhance disaster risk reduction (DRR), yet it remains unclear whether these events actually fulfill this transformative role around the world. Here, we investigate relationships between the frequency (number of events) and severity (fatalities, economic losses, and affected people) of natural hazards and DRR policy change in 85 countries over eight years. Our results show that frequency and severity factors are generally unassociated with improved DRR policy when controlling for income-levels, differences in starting policy values, and hazard event types. This is a robust result that accounts for event frequency and different hazard severity indicators, four baseline periods estimating hazard impacts, and multiple policy indicators. Although we show that natural hazards are unassociated with improved DRR policy globally, the study unveils variability in policy progress between countries experiencing similar levels of hazard frequency and severity.

scholarly journals Analisis Perkiraan Biaya Ekonomi Deforestasi Di Kalimantan Barat

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 59
Author(s):  
Akhmad Yani
Keyword(s):  
Research Question ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Economic Loss ◽  
Forest Area ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Economic Costs ◽  
West Kalimantan ◽  
High Level ◽  
Almost All ◽  
The Impact

Almost all forest areas in the districts / cities in West Kalimantan experience reduced area. Reducing the area of forest area or deforestation can, of course, have a detrimental impact on the environment which in turn can disrupt the sustainability of development itself. Deforestation has ecological, economic and social impacts. The higher the rate of deforestation, it will cause the potential impact will also increase. West Kalimantan experienced a fairly high level of deforestation. This gives an indication that the impact caused by deforestation in West Kalimantan has a relatively high potential. In other words, deforestation causes losses including economic losses. Related to this, the research question is how much economic value is the loss caused by deforestation in West Kalimantan? This research has 2 (two) objectives: first, calculating the economic costs of deforestation in West Kalimantan during the period 2009-2015, and second, analyzing the effect of the economic costs of deforestation on West Kalimantan's GDP during the period 2009-2015. Based on the data base for the period 2009 to 2015 and using the benefit transfer technique, this research has found that the highest economic losses occur in the secondary production forest and the lowest in the conservation forest area. Furthermore, during the period 2009 to 2015, this study has found that the highest economic loss value occurred in 2013 and the lowest occurred in 2011. Overall, the value of economic losses in the form of a combination of depletion and degradation provides a less significant reduction on the value of the forestry sub-sector GRDP in West Kalimantan.

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