scholarly journals Modelling the impact of delaying vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 assuming unlimited vaccine supply

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Amaku ◽  
Dimas Tadeu Covas ◽  
Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho ◽  
Raymundo Soares Azevedo ◽  
Eduardo Massad
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The World ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background At the moment we have more than 177 million cases and 3.8 million deaths (as of June 2021) around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far. Methods We propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against the 2019 coronavirus disease (COVID-19) on the number of cases and deaths due to the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations. Results The model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths will occur by the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithmic fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole. Conclusions Our model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time.

scholarly journals Modelling the Impact of Delaying Vaccination Against SARS-CoV-2 Assuming Unlimited Vaccines Supply

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Massad ◽  
Marcos Amaku ◽  
Dimas Tadeu Covas ◽  
Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho ◽  
Raymundo Soares Azevedo
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The World ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact

Abstract BackgroundAt the moment we have more than 109 million cases and 2.4 million deaths around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far.MethodsWe propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against the 2019 coronavirus induces disease (COVID-19) on the number of cases and deaths by the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations.ResultsThe model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths until the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, that for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithm fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole.ConclusionsOur model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time.

scholarly journals Modelling the Impact of Delaying Vaccination Against SARS-CoV-2 Assuming Unlimited Vaccines Supply

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marcos Amaku ◽  
Dimas Tadeu Covas ◽  
Francisco Antonio Bezerra Coutinho ◽  
Raymundo Soares Azevedo ◽  
Eduardo Massad
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Model ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
The World ◽  
The Moment ◽  
The Impact

AbstractBackgroundAt the moment we have more than 109 million cases and 2.4 million deaths around the world and vaccination represents the only hope to control the pandemic. Imperfections in planning vaccine acquisition and difficulties in implementing distribution among the population, however, have hampered the control of the virus so far.MethodsWe propose a new mathematical model to estimate the impact of vaccination delay against COVID-19 on the number of cases and deaths by the disease in Brazil. We apply the model to Brazil as a whole and to the State of Sao Paulo, the most affected by COVID-19 in Brazil. We simulated the model for the populations of the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole, varying the scenarios related to vaccine efficacy and compliance from the populations.ResultsThe model projects that, in the absence of vaccination, almost 170 thousand deaths and more than 350 thousand deaths until the end of 2021 for Sao Paulo and Brazil, respectively. If in contrast, Sao Paulo and Brazil had enough vaccine supply and so started a vaccination campaign in January with the maximum vaccination rate, compliance and efficacy, they could have averted more than 112 thousand deaths and 127 thousand deaths, respectively. In addition, that for each month of delay the number of deaths increases monotonically in a logarithm fashion, for both the State of Sao Paulo and Brazil as a whole.ConclusionsOur model shows that the current delay in the vaccination schedules that is observed in many countries has serious consequences in terms of mortality by the disease and should serve as an alert to health authorities to speed the process up such that the highest number of people to be immunized is reached in the shortest period of time.

scholarly journals COVID-19 pandemic impact on dentists in Latin America’s epicenter: São-Paulo, Brazil

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (8) ◽  
pp. e0256092
Author(s):  
Tatiane Fernandes Novaes ◽  
Maisa Camillo Jordão ◽  
Carlos Felipe Bonacina ◽  
André Oswaldo Veronezi ◽  
Carlos Ariel Rodrigues de Araujo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Health Care Professionals ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
Financial Impact ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Ordinal Logistic Regression Analysis ◽  
The Impact

The state of São Paulo, Brazil, where more than 94.000 dentists are currently registered, has become the epicenter of COVID-19 in Latin America. The aim of this cross-sectional study was to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on dentists in this state. A semi-structured questionnaire was sent via e-mail to 93.280 dentists with active registration in the Dental Council of São Paulo (CROSP). The impact of COVID-19 pandemic was assessed through questions related to demographic, socioeconomic, dental practice characteristics and personal protective equipment (PPE) use. Ordinal logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate the association between all the variables (p<0.05). Over 8 days, 2113 responses were received. Only 26.52% of the sample reported a low-income reduction (from 0–10%), while the majority of dentists reported a more negative financial impact, 35.6% with a reduction of more than 50% of their monthly income. Dentists who worked in the private sector and at the capital had a greater financial impact when compared to those of the public sector and countryside of the state (p<0.05). Furthermore, about 83% reported not having received any specific training to control the transmission of coronavirus in the health area. This study provides evidence of the negative impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the routine of dentists in the state of São Paulo, Brazil. Hopefully, this study will help dental and other health care professionals to better understand the consequences of disease in dental settings and strengthen preparedness throughout the dental health care system.

scholarly journals A model-based design of a vaccination strategy against rubella in a non-immunized community of São Paulo State, Brazil

1994 ◽  
Vol 112 (3) ◽  
pp. 579-594 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Massad ◽  
M. Nascimento Burattini ◽  
R. S. De Azevedo Neto ◽  
Hyun Mo Yang ◽  
F. A. B. Coutinho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Vaccination Strategy ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
Local Health ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Pulse Vaccination ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Mathematical Techniques ◽  
Local Health Authorities

SUMMARYA mixed vaccination strategy against rubella is proposed. We describe how the vaccination strategy was designed with the help of mathematical techniques. The strategy was designed for application in a non-immunized community of the State of São Paulo, Brazil, and was implemented by local health authorities in 1992. This strategy comprises a pulse vaccination campaign, covering the age interval between 1 and 10 years, followed by the introduction of the vaccine in the immunization calendar at 15 months of age. The expected impact of the proposed strategy is discussed.

scholarly journals Occurrence of Mesocyclops ogunnus Onabamiro, 1957 (Copepoda Cyclopoida) in water bodies of São Paulo State, identified as Mesocyclops kieferi Van de Velde, 1984

2002 ◽  
Vol 62 (4a) ◽  
pp. 615-620 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. MATSUMURA-TUNDISI ◽  
W. M. SILVA
Keyword(s):  
Related Species ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
Water Bodies ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Closely Related Species ◽  
Paulo State ◽  
The World ◽  
São Paulo State ◽  
Copepoda Cyclopoida

The aim of this work is clarify the identification of Mesocyclops ogunnus that occur in several reservoirs in the State of São Paulo and that was previously identified as Mesocyclops kieferi. These two species are closely related species with very similar characteristics. The differential characteristics are presented and the distribution of both species in the world is discussed.

Conclusion

2018 ◽  
pp. 298-302
Author(s):  
Francisco Vidal Luna ◽  
Herbert S. Klein
Keyword(s):  
20Th Century ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Leadership Position ◽  
Role Of The State ◽  
The Impact

This chapter examines the basic themes discussed in the book and the major conclusions reached which explain the rise of São Paulo to its important leadership position. We stress the importance of coffee, the role of the state in promoting the economy, the impact of immigration and the infrastructure established which enabled the state to become the leading economy in the second half of the 20th century

scholarly journals The impact of social distancing on COVID-19 infections and deaths

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
André de Souza Melo ◽  
Ana Iza Gomes da Penha Sobral ◽  
Marcelo Luiz Monteiro Marinho ◽  
Gisleia Benini Duarte ◽  
Amanda Aires Vieira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Isolation ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
The State ◽  
Var Model ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
Substantial Impact ◽  
The Social ◽  
Isolation Index ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background To assess the impact of the social isolation index on the number of infections and deaths by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo (Brazil). Methods Daily isolation data, obtained through geolocation information by mobile phone, were evaluated together with the number of daily infections and deaths by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo. The study was conducted from February 26 to May 19, 2020. The data were modeled through the vector autoregression (VAR) model. Results The isolation index has an effect of approximately 5% in variation in the number of infections, and 7% in the number of deaths. The impulse response function (IRF) caused a drop of 0.15% in the number of new cases/day, and 0.17% in the number of deaths/day following a shock in the isolation index. For both cases, this effect occurred 1 day after the shock and stabilized after 10 periods. An increase of 1% in the isolation index led to a reduction of 6.91% in new cases and 6.90% in the number of deaths. The 30 cumulative day reduction reached 22.72% in terms of transmission and 35.39% for deaths. Conclusions The social isolation index is related to deaths and infections from SARS-CoV-2. Although distancing measures are accompanied with impacts on the economy and the emergence of other morbidities, the benefits caused by the reduction in the speed of contagion are significant. The adoption of distancing measures has a substantial impact on the number of infected individuals and deaths by COVID-19.

scholarly journals Expected impact of COVID-19 outbreak in a major metropolitan area in Brazil

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarcísio M. Rocha Filho ◽  
Fabiana Sherine Ganem dos Santos ◽  
Victor Bertollo Gomes ◽  
Thiago Augusto Hernandes Rocha ◽  
Julio Henrique Rosa Croda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Older People ◽  
Metropolitan Area ◽  
Sao Paulo ◽  
World Health ◽  
São Paulo ◽  
The World ◽  
Health Organization ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The City

AbstractIn January 2020 China reported to the World Health Organization an outbreak of pneumonia of undetermined origin in the city of Wuhan, Hubei. In January 30, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak of COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Interest (PHEI).ObjectivesThe aim of this study is to assess the impact of a COVID-19 epidemic in the metropolitan region of São Paulo, Brazil.MethodsWe used a generalized SEIR (Susceptibles, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered) model, with additional Hospitalized variables (SEIHR model) and age-stratified structure to analyze the expected time evolution during the onset of the epidemic in the metropolitan area of São Paulo. The model allows to determine the evolution of the number of cases, the number of patients admitted to hospitals and deaths caused by COVID-19. In order to investigate the sensibility of our results with respect to parameter estimation errors we performed Monte Carlo analysis with 100 000 simulations by sampling parameter values from an uniform distribution in the confidence interval.ResultsWe estimate 1 368 (IQR: 880, 2 407) cases, 301 (22%) in older people (≥60 years), 81 (50, 143) hospitalizations, and 14 (9, 26) deaths in the first 30 days, and 38 583 (IQR: 16 698, 113, 163) cases, 8 427 (21.8%) in older people (≥60 years), 2181 (914, 6392) hospitalizations, and 397(166, 1205) deaths in the first 60 days.LimitationsWe supposed a constant transmission probability Pc among different age-groups, and that every severe and critic case will be hospitalized, as well as that the detection capacity in all the primary healthcare services does not change during the outbreak.ConclusionSupposing the reported parameters in the literature apply in the city of São Paulo, our study shows that it is expected that the impact of a COVID-19 outbreak will be important, requiring special planning from the authorities. This is the first study for a major metropolitan center in the south hemisphere, and we believe it can provide policy makers with a prognosis of the burden of the pandemic not only in Brazil, but also in other tropical zones, allowing to estimate total cases, hospitalization and deaths, in support to the management of the public health emergence caused by COVID-19.

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