Modeling long-term volcanic deformation at Kusatsu-Shirane and Asama volcanoes, Japan, using the GNSS coordinate time series

Long-term deformation of Kusatsu-Shirane and Asama volcanoes in central Japan were investigated using Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements. Large postseismic deformation caused by the 2011 Tohoku earthquake—which obscures the long-term volcanic deformation—was effectively removed by approximating the postseismic and other recent tectonic deformation in terms of quadrature of the geographical eastings/northings. Subsequently, deformation source parameters were estimated by the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method and linear inversion, employing an analytical model that calculates the deformation from an arbitrary oriented prolate/oblate spheroid. The deformation source of Kusatsu-Shirane volcano was found to be a sill-like oblate spheroid located a few kilometers northwest of the Yugama crater at a depth of approximately 4 $$\text {km}$$ km , while that of Asama was also estimated to be a sill-like oblate spheroid beneath the western flank of the edifice at a depth of approximately 12 $$\text {km}$$ km , along with the previously reported shallow east–west striking dike at a depth of approximately 1 $$\text {km}$$ km . It was revealed that (1) volume changes of the Kusatsu-Shirane deformation source and the shallow deformation source of Asama were correlated with the volcanic activities of the corresponding volcanoes, and (2) the Asama deep source has been steadily losing volume, which may indicate that the volcano will experience fewer eruptions in the near future.