Could Reservoirs Be Lowered in Case of Successful Earthquake Predictions?

<p>The quantitative assessment of the performance of earthquake prediction and/or forecast models is essential for evaluating their applicability for risk reduction purposes. Here we assess the earthquake prediction performance of the CN model applied to the Italian territory. This model has been widely publicized in Italian news media, but a careful assessment of its prediction performance is still lacking. In this paper we evaluate the results obtained so far from the CN algorithm applied to the Italian territory, by adopting widely used testing procedures and under development in the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) network. Our results show that the CN prediction performance is comparable to the prediction performance of the stationary Poisson model, that is, CN predictions do not add more to what may be expected from random chance.</p>

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Scoring annual earthquake predictions in China

Tectonophysics ◽

10.1016/j.tecto.2011.12.033 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 524-525 ◽

pp. 155-164 ◽

Cited By ~ 9

Author(s):

Jiancang Zhuang ◽

Changsheng Jiang

Keyword(s):

Earthquake Predictions

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The Experience of Real-Time Earthquake Predictions on Kamchatka

Earthquake Hazard, Risk and Disasters ◽

10.1016/b978-0-12-394848-9.00017-1 ◽

2014 ◽

pp. 449-475 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Gennady Sobolev ◽

Victor Chebrov

Keyword(s):

Real Time ◽

Earthquake Predictions

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On some methods for assessing earthquake predictions

Geophysical Journal International ◽

10.1093/gji/ggx239 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 210 (3) ◽

pp. 1474-1480 ◽

Cited By ~ 3

Author(s):

G. Molchan ◽

L. Romashkova ◽

A. Peresan

Keyword(s):

Earthquake Predictions

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An evaluation of Chinese annual earthquake predictions, 1990–1998

Journal of Applied Probability ◽

10.1239/jap/1085496604 ◽

2001 ◽

Vol 38 (A) ◽

pp. 222-231 ◽

Cited By ~ 23

Author(s):

Yaolin Shi ◽

Jie Liu ◽

Guomin Zhang

Keyword(s):

Monte Carlo ◽

Earthquake Prediction ◽

Active Regions ◽

Chance Level ◽

Preliminary Stage ◽

China Seismological Bureau ◽

Pure Chance ◽

Background Seismicity ◽

Earthquake Predictions ◽

Random Guess

The annual earthquake predictions of the China Seismological Bureau (CSB) are evaluated by means of an R score (an R score is approximately 0 for completely random guesses, and approximately 1 for completely successful predictions). The average R score of the annual predictions in China in the period 1990–1998 is about 0.184, significantly larger than 0.0. However, background seismicity is higher in seismically active regions. If a ‘random guess' prediction is chosen to be proportional to the background seismicity, the expected R score is 0.123, and the nine-year mean R score of 0.184 as observed is only marginally higher than this background value. Monte Carlo tests indicate that the probability of attaining an R score of actual prediction by background seismicity based on random guess is about . It is concluded that earthquake prediction in China is still in a very preliminary stage, barely above a pure chance level.

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