A Climate Policy for the Short and Medium Term: Stabilization or Adaptation?

2005 ◽  
Vol 16 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 667-680 ◽  
Author(s):  
Indur M. Goklany
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
Coastal Wetlands ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Global Impacts ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change ◽  
The Universe ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

An evaluation of analyses sponsored by the predecessor to the U.K. Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) of the global impacts of climate change under various mitigation scenarios (including CO2. stabilization at 550 and 750 ppm) coupled with an examination of the relative costs associated with different schemes to either mitigate climate change or reduce vulnerability to various climate-sensitive hazards (namely, malaria, hunger, water shortage, coastal flooding, and losses of global forests and coastal wetlands) indicates that, at least for the next few decades, risks and/or threats associated with these hazards would be lowered much more effectively and economically by reducing current and future vulnerability to those hazards rather than through stabilization. Accordingly, over the next few decades the focus of climate policy should be to: (a) broadly advance sustainable development (particularly in developing countries since that would generally enhance their adaptive capacity to cope with numerous problems that currently beset them, including climate-sensitive problems), (b) reduce vulnerabilities to climate-sensitive problems that are urgent today and might be exacerbated by future climate change, and (c) implement “no-regret” emission reduction measures while at the same time striving to expand the universe of such measures through research and development of cleaner and more affordable technologies. Such a policy would help solve current urgent problems facing humanity while preparing it to face future problems that might be caused by climate change.

Climate, ticks and disease

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
Disease Ecology ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Expert Opinions ◽  
The World ◽  
Host Pathogen ◽  
The Future ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract This book is a collection of 77 expert opinions arranged in three sections. Section 1 on "Climate" sets the scene, including predictions of future climate change, how climate change affects ecosystems, and how to model projections of the spatial distribution of ticks and tick-borne infections under different climate change scenarios. Section 2 on "Ticks" focuses on ticks (although tick-borne pathogens creep in) and whether or not changes in climate affect the tick biosphere, from physiology to ecology. Section 3 on "Disease" focuses on the tick-host-pathogen biosphere, ranging from the triangle of tick-host-pathogen molecular interactions to disease ecology in various regions and ecosystems of the world. Each of these three sections ends with a synopsis that aims to give a brief overview of all the expert opinions within the section. The book concludes with Section 4 (Final Synopsis and Future Predictions). This synopsis attempts to summarize evidence provided by the experts of tangible impacts of climate change on ticks and tick-borne infections. In constructing their expert opinions, contributors give their views on what the future might hold. The final synopsis provides a snapshot of their expert thoughts on the future.

scholarly journals Simulating Climate Change Impacts and Adaptive Measures for Rice Cultivation in Hunan Province, China

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (6) ◽  
pp. 1359-1376 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yamei Li ◽  
Wenxiang Wu ◽  
Quansheng Ge ◽  
Yang Zhou ◽  
Chenchen Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adverse Effect ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Ensemble Average ◽  
Hunan Province ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Yield Reduction ◽  
Average Yield ◽  
Fertilization Effects ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

AbstractClimate change will inevitably continue for the next few decades and will have an impact on climate-sensitive agricultural production, emphasizing the need to design effective adaptive strategies to cope with climate risk or take advantage of potential climatic benefits. In this study, the latest version of the Crop Environment Resource Synthesis-Rice (CERES-Rice) model was applied to assess the impacts of climate change and carbon dioxide (CO2) fertilization on rice yield, as well as the effectiveness of two popularly adopted adaptive measures in Hunan Province, the main rice-production location in China. The simulation spanned 30 years of baseline (1981–2010) as well as three future periods (2011–40, 2041–70, and 2071–99) with climate data generated by five general circulation models under the newly developed representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The simulation results showed that, in comparison with average rice yield during the baseline (1981–2010), the ensemble-average yield of all cultivars during the 2020s, 2050s, and 2080s would decrease under both RCPs without CO2 fertilization effects. The ensemble-average yield reduction during the 2080s was alleviated under both RCPs if CO2 fertilization effects were accounted for. Adaptation simulations indicated that two adaptive measures (switching cultivars and changing planting dates) could mitigate the adverse effect to different extents. The intermodel variability under both RCPs was generally small. These findings may provide useful insight into the potential impacts of climate change on rice yield and effective adaptive measures to mitigate the adverse effect of future climate change in Hunan Province.

scholarly journals The evolution of climate change guidance for fluvial flood risk management in England

2017 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 222-237 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas S Reynard ◽  
Alison L Kay ◽  
Molly Anderson ◽  
Bill Donovan ◽  
Caroline Duckworth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Management ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Measures ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Floods are one of the biggest natural hazards to society, and there is increasing concern about the potential impacts of climate change on flood occurrence and magnitude. Furthermore, flood risk is likely to increase in the future not just through increased flood occurrence, but also through socio-economic changes, such as increasing population. The extent to which adaptation measures can offset this increased risk will depend on the level of future climate change, but there exists an urgent need for information on the potential impacts of climate change on floods, so that these can be accounted for by flood management authorities and local planners aiming to reduce flood risk. Agencies across the UK have been pro-active in providing such guidance for many years and in refining it as the science of climate change and hydrological impacts has developed. The history of this guidance for fluvial flood risk in England is presented and discussed here, including the recent adoption of a regional risk-based approach. Such an approach could be developed and applied to flood risk management in other countries, and to other sectors affected by climate change.

CERES-Rice model-based simulations of climate change impacts on rice yields and efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China

2014 ◽  
Vol 65 (12) ◽  
pp. 1267 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenxiang Wu ◽  
Qian Fang ◽  
Quansheng Ge ◽  
Mengzi Zhou ◽  
Yumei Lin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Rice Yield ◽  
Adaptive Strategies ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Rice Cultivars ◽  
Rice Yields ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Global temperatures are rising, and concerns about the response of agricultural production to climate change are increasing. Adaptation is a key factor that will shape the severity of impacts of future climate change on food production. Based on actual meteorological, soil and agricultural management data at site scale, the CERES-Rice model, combined with the Regional Climate Model (RCM)-PRECIS, was used to simulate both the effects of climate change on rice yields and the efficacy of adaptive options in Northeast China. The impact simulation showed that rice yield changes ranged from +0.1% to –44.9% (A2 scenario) and from –0.3% to –40.1% (B2 scenario) without considering CO2 fertilisation effects. When considering CO2 fertilisation effects, rice yield reductions induced by temperature increases were decreased at all sites. The CO2 fertilisation effects may partly offset the negative impacts of climate change on rice yields. Adaptive option results revealed that the adverse impacts of climate change on rice yields could be mitigated by advancing the planting dates, transplanting mid–late-maturing rice cultivars to replace early-maturing ones, and breeding new rice cultivars with high thermal requirements. Our findings provide insight into the possible impacts of climate change on rice production, and we suggest which adaptive strategies could be used to cope with future climate change, thus providing evidence-based suggestions for government policy on adaptive strategies.

scholarly journals Global cotton production under climate change – Implications for yield and water consumption

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yvonne Jans ◽  
Werner von Bloh ◽  
Sibyll Schaphoff ◽  
Christoph Müller
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Consumption ◽  
Irrigation Water ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
The Other ◽  
Aral Sea ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Cotton Production ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Abstract. Being an extensively produced natural fiber on earth, cotton is of importance for economies. Although the plant is broadly adapted to varying environments, growth and irrigation water demand of cotton may be challenged by future climate change. To study the impacts of climate change on cotton productivity in different regions across the world and the irrigation water requirements related to it, we use the process-based, spatially detailed biosphere and hydrology model LPJmL. We find our modelled cotton yield levels in good agreement with reported values and simulated water consumption of cotton production similar to published estimates. Following the ISIMIP protocol, we employ an ensemble of five General Circulation Models under four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for the 2011–2099 period to simulate future cotton yields. We find that irrigated cotton production does not suffer from climate change if CO2 effects are considered, whereas rainfed production is more sensitive to varying climate conditions. Considering the overall effect of a changing climate and CO2 fertilization, cotton production on current cropland steadily increases for most of the RCPs. Starting from ~ 65 million tonnes in 2010, cotton production for RCP4.5 and RCP6.0 equates to 83 and 92 million tonnes at the end of the century, respectively. Under RCP8.5, simulated global cotton production raises by more than 50 % by 2099. Taking only climate change into account, projected cotton production considerably shrinks in most scenarios, by up to one-third or 43 million tonnes under RCP8.5. The simulation of future virtual water content (VWC) of cotton grown under elevated CO2 results for all scenarios in less VWC compared to ambient CO2 conditions. Under RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, VWC is notably decreased by more than 2000 m3 t−1 in areas where cotton is produced under purely rainfed conditions. By 2040, the average global VWC for cotton declines in all scenarios from currently 3300 to 3000 m3 t−1 and reduction continues by up to 30 % in 2100 under RCP8.5. While the VWC decreases by the CO2 effect, elevated temperature (and thus water stress) reverse the picture. Except for RCP2.6, the global VWC of cotton increase slightly but steadily under the other RCPs until mid century. RCP8.5 results in an average global VWC of more than 5000 m3 t−1 by end of the simulation period. Given the economic relevance of cotton production, climate change poses an additional stress and deserves special attention. Changes in VWC and water demands for cotton production are of special importance, as cotton production is known for its intense water consumption that led, e.g., to the loss of most of the Aral sea. The implications of climate impacts on cotton production on the one hand, and the impact of cotton production on water resources on the other hand illustrate the need to assess how future climate change may affect cotton production and its resource requirements. The inclusion of cotton in LPJmL allows for various large-scale studies to assess impacts of climate change on hydrological factors and the implications for agricultural production and carbon sequestration.

scholarly journals Perceived Cultural Impacts of Climate Change Motivates Climate Action and Support for Climate Policy

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim-Pong Tam ◽  
Angela Leung ◽  
Brandon Koh
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Policy ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Orientation ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Public Understanding ◽  
Student Sample ◽  
Cultural Impacts ◽  
Climate Action ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

The impacts of climate change on human cultures receive increasing attention in recent years. However, the extent to which people are aware of these impacts, whether such awareness motivates climate action, and what kinds of people show stronger awareness are rarely understood. The present investigation provides the very first set of answers to these questions. In two studies (with a student sample with N = 198 from Singapore and a demographically representative sample with N = 571 from the United States), we observed a generally high level of awareness among our participants. Most important, perceived cultural impacts of climate change robustly predicted intentions to engage in climate change mitigation behavior and climate activism, as well as support for climate policy. We also found expected associations between perceived cultural impacts and psychological and demographic variables (e.g., cosmopolitan orientation, moral inclusion, political orientation). These findings not only add a cultural dimension to the research on public understanding of climate change but also reveal a viable application of cultural frames as an effective climate communication strategy.

scholarly journals Long-Term Variability in Potential Evapotranspiration, Water Availability and Drought under Climate Change Scenarios in the Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Atmosphere ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (9) ◽  
pp. 883 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mahtsente Tadese ◽  
Lalit Kumar ◽  
Richard Koech
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Water Availability ◽  
Potential Evapotranspiration ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Water Shortage ◽  
Climate Change Scenarios ◽  
Awash River Basin ◽  
Mitigate Climate Change

Understanding the hydrological processes of a watershed in response to climate change is vital to the establishment of sustainable environmental management strategies. This study aimed to evaluate the variability of potential evapotranspiration (PET) and water availability in the Awash River Basin (ARB) under different climate change scenarios and to relate these with long-term drought occurrences in the area. The PET and water availability of the ARB was estimated during the period of 1995–2009 and two future scenarios (2050s and 2070s). The representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) simulations showed an increase in the monthly mean PET from March to August in the 2050s, and all the months in the 2070s. The study also identified a shortage of net water availability in the majority of the months investigated and the occurrence of mild to extreme drought in about 40–50% of the analysed years at the three study locations (Holetta, Koka Dam, and Metehara). The decrease in water availability and an increase in PET, combined with population growth, will aggravate the drought occurrence and food insecurity in the ARB. Therefore, integrated watershed management systems and rehabilitation of forests, as well as water bodies, should be addressed in the ARB to mitigate climate change and water shortage in the area.

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