The potential impact of urine-LAM diagnostics on tuberculosis incidence and mortality: A modelling analysis

Background Lateral flow urine lipoarabinomannan (LAM) tests could offer important new opportunities for the early detection of tuberculosis (TB). The currently licensed LAM test, Alere Determine TB LAM Ag (‘LF-LAM’), performs best in the sickest people living with HIV (PLHIV). However, the technology continues to improve, with newer LAM tests, such as Fujifilm SILVAMP TB LAM (‘SILVAMP-LAM’) showing improved sensitivity, including amongst HIV-negative patients. It is important to anticipate the epidemiological impact that current and future LAM tests may have on TB incidence and mortality. Methods and findings Concentrating on South Africa, we examined the impact that widening LAM test eligibility would have on TB incidence and mortality. We developed a mathematical model of TB transmission to project the impact of LAM tests, distinguishing ‘current’ tests (with sensitivity consistent with LF-LAM), from hypothetical ‘future’ tests (having sensitivity consistent with SILVAMP-LAM). We modelled the impact of both tests, assuming full adoption of the 2019 WHO guidelines for the use of these tests amongst those receiving HIV care. We also simulated the hypothetical deployment of future LAM tests for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms, not restricted to PLHIV. Our model projects that 2,700,000 (95% credible interval [CrI] 2,000,000–3,600,000) and 420,000 (95% CrI 350,000–520,000) cumulative TB incident cases and deaths, respectively, would occur between 2020 and 2035 if the status quo is maintained. Relative to this comparator, current and future LAM tests would respectively avert 54 (95% CrI 33–86) and 90 (95% CrI 55–145) TB deaths amongst inpatients between 2020 and 2035, i.e., reductions of 5% (95% CrI 4%–6%) and 9% (95% CrI 7%–11%) in inpatient TB mortality. This impact in absolute deaths averted doubles if testing is expanded to include outpatients, yet remains <1% of country-level TB deaths. Similar patterns apply to incidence results. However, deploying a future LAM test for all people presenting to care with TB symptoms would avert 470,000 (95% CrI 220,000–870,000) incident TB cases (18% reduction, 95% CrI 9%–29%) and 120,000 (95% CrI 69,000–210,000) deaths (30% reduction, 95% CrI 18%–44%) between 2020 and 2035. Notably, this increase in impact arises largely from diagnosis of TB amongst those with HIV who are not yet in HIV care, and who would thus be ineligible for a LAM test under current guidelines. Qualitatively similar results apply under an alternative comparator assuming expanded use of GeneXpert MTB/RIF (‘Xpert’) for TB diagnosis. Sensitivity analysis demonstrates qualitatively similar results in a setting like Kenya, which also has a generalised HIV epidemic, but a lower burden of HIV/TB coinfection. Amongst limitations of this analysis, we do not address the cost or cost-effectiveness of future tests. Our model neglects drug resistance and focuses on the country-level epidemic, thus ignoring subnational variations in HIV and TB burden. Conclusions These results suggest that LAM tests could have an important effect in averting TB deaths amongst PLHIV with advanced disease. However, achieving population-level impact on the TB epidemic, even in high-HIV-burden settings, will require future LAM tests to have sufficient performance to be deployed more broadly than in HIV care.

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ART initiations following community-based distribution of HIV self-tests: meta-analysis and meta-regression of STAR Initiative data

BMJ Global Health ◽

10.1136/bmjgh-2021-004986 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 6 (Suppl 4) ◽

pp. e004986

Author(s):

Melissa Neuman ◽

Katherine L Fielding ◽

Helen Ayles ◽

Frances M Cowan ◽

Bernadette Hensen ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Meta Analysis ◽

National Level ◽

Population Level ◽

Hiv Care ◽

People Living With Hiv ◽

Community Based ◽

Variable Effect ◽

Standard Testing ◽

Meta Regression ◽

The Impact

IntroductionMeasuring linkage after community-based testing, particularly HIV self-testing (HIVST), is challenging. Here, we use data from studies of community-based HIVST distribution, conducted within the STAR Initiative, to assess initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) and factors driving differences in linkage rates.MethodsFive STAR studies evaluated HIVST implementation in Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe. New ART initiations during the months of intervention at clinics in HIVST and comparison areas were presented graphically, and study effects combined using meta-analysis. Meta-regression was used to estimate associations between the impact of community-based HIVST distribution and indicators of implementation context, intensity and reach. Effect size estimates used (1) prespecified trial definitions of ART timing and comparator facilities and (2) exploratory definitions accounting for unexpected diffusion of HIVST into comparison areas and periods with less distribution of HIVST than was expected.ResultsCompared with arms with standard testing only, ART initiations were higher in clinics in HIVST distribution areas in 4/5 studies. The prespecified meta-analysis found positive but variable effects of HIVST on facility ART initiations (RR: 1.14, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.40; p=0.21). The exploratory meta-analysis found a stronger impact of HIVST distribution on ART initiations (RR: 1.29, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.55, p=0.02).ART initiations were higher in studies with greater self-reported population-level intensity of HIVST use (RR: 1.12; 95% CI 1.04 to 1.21; p=0.02.), but did not differ by national-level indicators of ART use among people living with HIV, number of HIVST kits distributed per 1000 population, or self-reported knowledge of how to link to care after a reactive HIVST.ConclusionCommunity-based HIVST distribution has variable effect on ART initiations compared with standard testing service alone. Optimising both support for and approach to measurement of effective and timely linkage or relinkage to HIV care and prevention following HIVST is needed to maximise impact and guide implementation strategies.

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Free access to antiretroviral treatment and protection against the risk of catastrophic health expenditure in people living with HIV: evidence from Cameroon

BMC Health Services Research ◽

10.1186/s12913-021-06331-5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 21 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Marwân-al-Qays Bousmah ◽

Marie Libérée Nishimwe ◽

Christopher Kuaban ◽

Sylvie Boyer

Keyword(s):

Socioeconomic Status ◽

Health Expenditure ◽

Antiretroviral Treatment ◽

Catastrophic Health Expenditure ◽

Hiv Care ◽

Free Access ◽

People Living With Hiv ◽

Art Policy ◽

Living With Hiv ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background To foster access to care and reduce the burden of health expenditures on people living with HIV (PLHIV), several sub-Saharan African countries, including Cameroon, have adopted a policy of removing HIV-related fees, especially for antiretroviral treatment (ART). We investigate the impact of Cameroon’s free antiretroviral treatment (ART) policy, enacted in May 2007, on catastrophic health expenditure (CHE) risk according to socioeconomic status, in PLHIV enrolled in the country’s treatment access program. Methods Based on primary data from two cross-sectional surveys of PLHIV outpatients in 2006–2007 and 2014 (i.e., before and after the policy’s implementation, respectively), we used inverse propensity score weighting to reduce covariate imbalances between participants in both surveys, combined with probit regressions of CHE incidence. The analysis included participants treated with ART in one of the 11 HIV services common to both surveys (n = 1275). Results The free ART policy was associated with a significantly lower risk of CHE only in the poorest PLHIV while no significant effect was found in lower-middle or upper socioeconomic status PLHIV. Unexpectedly, the risk of CHE was higher in those with middle socioeconomic status after the policy’s implementation. Conclusions Our findings suggest that Cameroon’s free ART policy is pro-poor. As it only benefitted PLHIV with the lowest socioeconomic status, increased comprehensive HIV care coverage is needed to substantially reduce the risk of CHE and the associated risk of impoverishment for all PLHIV.

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Achieving a “step change” in the tuberculosis epidemic through comprehensive community-wide intervention: a model-based analysis

BMC Medicine ◽

10.1186/s12916-021-02110-5 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 19 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Sourya Shrestha ◽

Emily A. Kendall ◽

Rebekah Chang ◽

Roy Joseph ◽

Parastu Kasaie ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Health System ◽

Adult Population ◽

Preventive Therapy ◽

Step Change ◽

Health System Strengthening ◽

World Health ◽

Unsuccessful Treatment ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

Epidemiological Impact ◽

The Impact

Abstract Background Global progress towards reducing tuberculosis (TB) incidence and mortality has consistently lagged behind the World Health Organization targets leading to a perception that large reductions in TB burden cannot be achieved. However, several recent and historical trials suggest that intervention efforts that are comprehensive and intensive can have a substantial epidemiological impact. We aimed to quantify the potential epidemiological impact of an intensive but realistic, community-wide campaign utilizing existing tools and designed to achieve a “step change” in the TB burden. Methods We developed a compartmental model that resembled TB transmission and epidemiology of a mid-sized city in India, the country with the greatest absolute TB burden worldwide. We modeled the impact of a one-time, community-wide screening campaign, with treatment for TB disease and preventive therapy for latent TB infection (LTBI). This one-time intervention was followed by the strengthening of the tuberculosis-related health system, potentially facilitated by leveraging the one-time campaign. We estimated the tuberculosis cases and deaths that could be averted over 10 years using this comprehensive approach and assessed the contributions of individual components of the intervention. Results A campaign that successfully screened 70% of the adult population for active and latent tuberculosis and subsequently reduced diagnostic and treatment delays and unsuccessful treatment outcomes by 50% was projected to avert 7800 (95% range 5450–10,200) cases and 1710 (1290–2180) tuberculosis-related deaths per 1 million population over 10 years. Of the total averted deaths, 33.5% (28.2–38.3) were attributable to the inclusion of preventive therapy and 52.9% (48.4–56.9) to health system strengthening. Conclusions A one-time, community-wide mass campaign, comprehensively designed to detect, treat, and prevent tuberculosis with currently existing tools can have a meaningful and long-lasting epidemiological impact. Successful treatment of LTBI is critical to achieving this result. Health system strengthening is essential to any effort to transform the TB response.

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Abstract P116: The Impact of Diet Low in Fruits and Vegetables on Cardiovascular Disease Burden Across 195 Countries in 2015

Circulation ◽

10.1161/circ.135.suppl_1.p116 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 135 (suppl_1) ◽

Author(s):

Patrick J Sur ◽

Ashkan Afshin

Keyword(s):

Cardiovascular Disease ◽

Fruits And Vegetables ◽

Population Level ◽

Optimal Level ◽

Protective Effects ◽

Disability Adjusted Life Years ◽

Country Level ◽

Disability Adjusted Life ◽

Life Years ◽

The Impact

Introduction: While cardio-protective effects of fruits and vegetables are well-established, the impact of their suboptimal intake on the CVD burden across nations and levels of development has not been evaluated. Objective: To systematically quantify the burden of CVD attributable to low intake of fruits and low intake of vegetables in 195 countries by age, sex, country, and development status in 2015. Methods: We obtained data on consumption of fruits and vegetables from nationally or subnationally representative nutrition surveys and data on their national availability from the UN FAO. Etiologic effect sizes of fruits and vegetables on CVD endpoints were obtained from meta- analyses of prospective cohort studies. The optimal level of intakes for each was determined based on the levels associated with lowest risk of mortality in prospective observational studies. A comparative risk assessment analysis was conducted to quantify the proportion of disability- adjusted life years (DALYs) attributable to low intake of each. The variation of this burden was further evaluated across different levels of our newly developed socio-demographic index (SDI). Results: In 2015, low intake of fruits accounted for 57.3 (95% UI: 37.1- 78.4) million DALYs due to CVD globally (41.5% from IHD and 58.5% from stroke). Low intake of vegetable caused 44.6 (23.6- 68.8) million CVD DALYs (67.3% IHD and 32.7% stroke). The highest burden of CVD attributable to low intake of fruits and vegetables was seen in the middle and low-middle SDI quintiles (17.2 and 14.3% of total DALYs), while the lowest burden for each was seen in high and high-middle SDI quintiles (12.7 and 11.2%). At the country level, the attributable CVD burden ranged from 5.1% of total DALYs (Rwanda) to 23.2% (Bangladesh) for low intake of fruit and from 5.9% (North Korea) to 19.4% (Mongolia) for low intake of vegetable. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that population inventions to increase consumption of fruits and vegetables at population level could save millions of life years globally. Figure. Age-standardized proportion of disability-adjusted life years attributable to low intake of fruits (A) and vegetables (B) from cardiovascular disease among adults (> 25y) in 2015.

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Systematic identification and referral of smokers attending HIV ambulatory care highlights the failure of current service provision in an at-risk population

BMJ Open Respiratory Research ◽

10.1136/bmjresp-2018-000395 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 6 (1) ◽

pp. e000395

Author(s):

James Brown ◽

Christianna Kyriacou ◽

Elisha Pickett ◽

Kelly Edwards ◽

Hemal Joshi ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Smoking Cessation ◽

Smoking Status ◽

Healthcare Services ◽

Lifestyle Changes ◽

Hiv Care ◽

People Living With Hiv ◽

Smoking Cessation Services ◽

Living With Hiv ◽

Systematic Identification ◽

The Impact

IntroductionPeople living with HIV (PLWH) are more likely to smoke than the general population and are at greater risk of smoking-related illness. Healthcare services need to address this burden of preventable disease.MethodsWe evaluated the impact of a brief intervention that asked service users about smoking when they attended for ambulatory HIV care in London, UK, and offered referral to smoking cessation.ResultsOverall, 1548 HIV-positive individuals were asked about their smoking status over a 12-month period. Of this group, 385 (25%) reported that they were current smokers, 372 (97%) were offered referral to smoking cessation services and 154 (40%) accepted this. We established an outcome of referral for 114 (74%) individuals. A total of 36 (10% of smokers) attended stop smoking clinics and 16 (4%) individuals were recorded as having quit smoking.DiscussionThe simple intervention of asking PLWH about tobacco smoking and offering referral to smoking cessation services rapidly identified current smokers, 40% of whom accepted referral to smoking cessation services. This highlights the importance of promoting behaviour and lifestyle changes with every contact with health services. However, a large proportion of those referred were either not seen in local services or the outcome of referral could not be ascertained. If the risk of smoking-related morbidity among PLWH is to be reduced, more sustainable referral pathways and ways of improving uptake of smoking cessation services must be developed.

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The Impact of ART on the Economic Outcomes of People Living with HIV/AIDS

AIDS Research and Treatment ◽

10.1155/2013/362972 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 2013 ◽

pp. 1-7 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Annet Nannungi ◽

Glenn Wagner ◽

Bonnie Ghosh-Dastidar

Keyword(s):

Multivariate Analysis ◽

Physical Health ◽

Economic Outcomes ◽

Sub Saharan Africa ◽

Hiv Care ◽

Work Status ◽

People Living With Hiv ◽

Health Functioning ◽

The Impact ◽

Over Time

Background. Clinical benefits of ART are well documented, but less is known about its effects on economic outcomes such as work status and income in sub-Saharan Africa.Methods. Data were examined from 482 adult clients entering HIV care (257 starting ART; 225 not yet eligible for ART) in Kampala, Uganda. Self-reported data on work status and income were assessed at baseline, months 6 and 12. Multivariate analysis examined the effects of ART over time, controlling for change in physical health functioning and baseline covariates.Results. Fewer ART patients worked at baseline compared to non-ART patients (25.5% versus 34.2%); 48.8% of those not working at baseline were now working at month 6, and 50% at month 12, with similar improvement in both the ART and non-ART groups. However, multivariate analysis revealed that the ART group experienced greater improvement over time. Average weekly income did not differ between the groups at baseline nor change significantly over time, among those who were working; being male gender and having any secondary education were predictive of higher income.Conclusions. ART was associated with greater improvement in work status, even after controlling for change in physical health functioning, suggesting other factors associated with ART may influence work.

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Emergency Room “Opt-Out” HIV Testing Pre- and During COVID-19 Pandemic in a Large Community Health System

Journal of the International Association of Providers of AIDS Care (JIAPAC) ◽

10.1177/23259582211041260 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 20 ◽

pp. 232595822110412

Author(s):

Paula Eckardt ◽

Jianli Niu ◽

Sheila Montalvo

Keyword(s):

Hiv Infection ◽

Hiv Testing ◽

Healthcare System ◽

South Florida ◽

Hiv Care ◽

People Living With Hiv ◽

Testing Program ◽

Large Community ◽

Opt Out ◽

The Impact

Background: South Florida has the highest HIV rates across the country. Emergency Rooms (ERs) are optimal clinical sites for the identification of people living with HIV. We aimed to evaluate the feasibility and yield of opt-out HIV testing among ER patients in a large community healthcare system in South Florida, and determine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on HIV testing. Methods: This was a retrospective study conducted in the Memorial Healthcare System, Hollywood, Florida. HIV test was offered on an “opt-out” basis to patients aged 16 years or older presenting to the ER of the Memorial Regional Hospital between July 2018 and August 2020. Number of ER visits, HIV testing offered, acceptance of HIV testing, tested positive for HIV infection and linkage to care were reviewed and analyzed. Results: A total of 105,264 (53.7%) patients of 196,110 ER visits were eligible for HIV testing and 39,261 (37.3%) completed HIV testing. Of those tested, 206 (0.5%) patients tested positive, with 54 (26.2%) new infected patients and 152 (73.8%) known infected patients who had not disclosed their status. 45 (60%) of 75 patients with known HIV infections who were not engaged in HIV care were successfully relinked into care after testing, and engagement in care increased from 50.7% pre-testing to 80.3% post-testing (p = 0.001). 45 (83.3%) of 54 newly diagnosed patients were successfully linked into care. During the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a significant reduction in both the ER visits and HIV tests as compared with the pre-pandemic period (p = 0.007 and p < 0.001, respectively). Conclusion: An “Opt-out” HIV testing program was successfully implemented in a community hospital ERs. The use of this strategy successfully identified patients with undiagnosed HIV infection and improved their engagement in HIV care. Given the impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the testing program, new strategies should develop to reduce service disruption and maintain the progress of “Opt-out” HIV testing.

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COVID-19 pandemic in the African continent: Forecasts of cumulative cases, new infections, and mortality

10.1101/2020.04.09.20059154 ◽

2020 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

T Achoki ◽

U Alam ◽

L Were ◽

T Gebremedhin ◽

F Senkubuge ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Central Africa ◽

Population Level ◽

Eastern Africa ◽

Local Context ◽

African Countries ◽

Enabling Factors ◽

Western Africa ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

The Impact ◽

Mortality Estimates

BackgroundThe epidemiology of COVID-19 remains speculative in Africa. To the best of our knowledge, no study, using robust methodology provides its trajectory for the region or accounts for local context. This paper is the first systematic attempt to provide prevalence, incidence, and mortality estimates across Africa.MethodsCaseloads and incidence forecasts are from a co-variate-based instrumental variable regression model. Fatality rates from Italy and China were applied to generate mortality estimates after making relevant health system and population-level characteristics related adjustments between each of the African countries.ResultsBy June 30 2020, around 16.3 million people in Africa will contract COVID-19 (95% CI 718,403 to 98,358,799). Northern and Eastern Africa will be the most and least affected areas. Cumulative cases by June 30 are expected to reach around 2.9 million (95% CI 465,028 to 18,286,358) in Southern Africa, 2.8 million (95% CI 517,489 to 15,056,314) in Western Africa, and 1.2 million (95% CI 229,111 to 6,138,692) in Central Africa. Incidence for the month of April 2020 is expected to be highest in Djibouti, 32.8 per 1000 (95% CI 6.25 to 171.77), while Morocco will experience among the highest fatalities (1,045 deaths, 95% CI 167 to 6,547).ConclusionLess urbanized countries with low levels of socio-economic development (hence least connected to the world), are likely to register lower and slower transmissions at the early stages of an epidemic. However, the same enabling factors that worked for their benefit can hinder interventions that have lessened the impact of COVID-19 elsewhere.

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Cohort profile: the LHIV-Manitoba clinical cohort of people living with HIV in Manitoba, Canada

BMJ Open ◽

10.1136/bmjopen-2019-034259 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 10 (5) ◽

pp. e034259 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Leigh M McClarty ◽

Eve Cheuk ◽

Laurie Ireland ◽

Claire Kendall ◽

Christine Bibeau ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Hiv Care ◽

People Living With Hiv ◽

Canadian Prairie ◽

Clinical Indicators ◽

Hiv Care Cascade ◽

Hiv Epidemiology ◽

Clinical Dataset ◽

Vaginal Sex ◽

Clinical Records ◽

The Impact

PurposeThe LHIV-Manitoba cohort was developed as a way to provide a comprehensive source of HIV-related health information in the central Canadian Prairie province of Manitoba. The cohort will provide important information as we aim to better understand local HIV epidemiology and address key knowledge and practice gaps in HIV prevention, treatment and care programming in the province.ParticipantsIn total, 890 individuals, aged 18 or older and living or receiving HIV care in Manitoba are enrolled in the cohort. A complete clinical dataset exists for 725 participants, which includes variables on sociodemographic characteristics, comorbidities and co-infections, self-reported HIV exposure categories and HIV clinical indicators. A limited clinical dataset exists for an additional 165 individuals who were enrolled posthumously. 97.5% of cohort participants’ clinical records are linked to provincial administrative health datasets.Findings to dateThe average age of cohort participants is 49.7 years. Approximately three-quarters of participants are male, 42% self-identified as white and 42% as Indigenous. The majority of participants (64%) reported condomless vaginal sex as a risk exposure for HIV. Nearly one-fifth (18%) of participants have an active hepatitis C virus infection and the cohort’s median CD4 count increased from 316 cells/mm3 to 518 cells/mm3 between time of entry into care and end of the first quarter in 2019.Future plansThe LHIV-Manitoba cohort is an open cohort, and as such, participant enrolment, data collection and analyses will be continually ongoing. Future analyses will focus on the impact of provincial drug plans on clinical outcomes, determinants of mortality among cohort participants and deriving estimates for a local HIV care cascade.

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Associations between county-level general surgeon (GS) and gastroenterologist (GA) density and outcomes for hepatobiliary cancer (HBC).

Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1200/jco.2012.30.4_suppl.292 ◽

2012 ◽

Vol 30 (4_suppl) ◽

pp. 292-292

Author(s):

Trevor C. Tsang ◽

Winson Y. Cheung

Keyword(s):

Level Density ◽

Population Level ◽

General Surgeon ◽

County Level ◽

Physician Density ◽

Logistic Regression Models ◽

Hepatobiliary Cancer ◽

Incidence And Mortality ◽

Beta Coefficient ◽

The Impact

292 Background: Surgical resection is the mainstay of treatment for early, localized HBC. Prior studies consistently show an association between procedure volumes and cancer outcomes, but the impact of surgeon and physician density is unclear. Our aims were to 1) examine the effects of GS and GA density on HBC mortality and 2) compare the relative importance of GS versus GA density on HBC outcomes. Methods: Using county-level data from the Area Resource File, US Census, and National Cancer Institute, we developed both multivariate linear and logistic regression models to determine the effect of GS and GA density on overall HBC mortality between 2002 and 2006, while controlling for cancer incidence, county demographics and socioeconomic factors. Results: In total, 793 counties were analyzed: mean HBC incidence and mortality were 5.89 and 5.34 per 100,000 persons, respectively; 77% were metropolitan; mean GS and GA densities were 10.6 and 3.5 per 100,000 people, respectively. When compared to counties with no GS, those with at least one had a statistically significant decrease in HBC-specific mortality (beta coefficient -.115; p=.001). In contrast, when compared to counties with no GA, those with at least one showed a trend towards lower mortality (beta coefficient -.0677; p=.065). Increasing the county-level density of GS and GA improved outcomes, but increases beyond 10 GS or 4 GA per 100,000 people did not continue to result in significant reductions in HBC mortality; rather, these showed an increase in HBC mortality. Conclusions: Reductions in HBC mortality are more strongly influenced by increasing GS than GA density. There appears to be a ceiling effect at which point increasing GS and GA density does not appear to result in improvements in HBC outcomes. A strategy of allocating healthcare resources and distributing the workforce across counties will optimize outcomes at the population-level.

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