Lohnzurückhaltung, Wechselkurs und Beschäftigung - unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Kapitalmarktes und der Handelsstruktur

AbstractIn this paper, a critical comparison is made of the arguments within the controversy over the effects of “wage restraint”. The arguments are discussed in the framework of a portfolio theoretical macroeconomic model. Thus, not only is the market for real capital considered, but the importance of intra- vs. interindustrial trade for the results is established. In principle, the optimistic predictions of the German Council of Economic Experts (“Sachverständigenrat”) are confirmed, although they have been generalized and linked to certain preconditions. Finally, there is a supplementary finding: Tobin’s q seems to be more than a match for all the other propositions (such as, “the ability to sell”, the real exchange rate on the basis of unit labour costs, etc.) as an indicator of the competitiveness of national economies.

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Commodity prices, the exchange rate and manufacturing in South Africa: what do the data say?

African Journal of Economic and Management Studies ◽

10.1108/ajems-09-2013-0085 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 6 (4) ◽

pp. 356-379 ◽

Cited By ~ 4

Author(s):

Duncan Hodge

Keyword(s):

South Africa ◽

Exchange Rate ◽

Real Exchange Rate ◽

Money Supply ◽

Positive Relationship ◽

Commodity Prices ◽

Dutch Disease ◽

Content Type ◽

Labour Costs ◽

Unit Labour Costs

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the empirical relationships between changes in OECD output, commodity prices, the real exchange rate, real money supply, unit labour costs and manufacturing in South Africa. In particular, to test a version of the Dutch disease argument that increases in the prices of South Africa’s main commodity exports have had a negative effect on domestic manufacturing against the alternative hypothesis that there is a positive relationship between such changes in commodity prices and domestic manufacturing output. Design/methodology/approach – Construction of a model including real manufacturing output in South Africa as the dependent variable and the following independent variables: OECD output, an international real metals price index, a real effective exchange rate index, real M3 money supply and manufacturing unit labour costs. The time series sample data comprise 124 quarterly observations for the period 1980-2010. The model equation was tested and estimated using a Johansen cointegration approach. Findings – The main findings are: OECD output is the single most important determinant of domestic manufacturing output; while the real exchange rate has the predicted negative sign, rising commodity prices are associated with increases rather than decreases in domestic manufacturing and; large increases in unit labour costs since the early 1980s have dragged down manufacturing over the sample period. Originality/value – The finding of a positive relationship between commodity prices and domestic manufacturing means that the Dutch disease argument must be revised when applied to South Africa. While rising commodity prices may lead to a negative exchange rate effect on manufacturing competitiveness, this is more than offset by the positive growth effects associated with upswings in the commodity price cycle.

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