Source Functions of CO2 and Future CO2 Burden in the Atmosphere
Abstract A logistic source function for CO2 was derived which takes into account the input arising from the burning of fossil fuels, the stimulation of photosynthesis by the increasing partial pressure of CO2, and the decrease of biomass through deforestation etc. The parameters in a 5-box-model for the kinetics of CO2 were adjusted to fit the new Mauna Loa data on CO2 concentrations in air. Using these parameters and a buffer factor ξ(t) for the absorption of CO2 into the sea, the future CO2 burden was calculated for status quo conditions and for different values of the growth coefficient of fossil fuel consumption. The results show that one can change the deforestation factor in rather wide limits without changing very much the future CO2 concentration in air during the next 80 years or so (cf. Figure 4). On the other hand, the future C02 burden depends strongly on the growth rate of fossil fuel consumption and will double under status quo conditions early in the next century (cf. Figure 5).