scholarly journals A New Hybrid Wavelet-Neural Network Approach for Forecasting Electricity

2020 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Heni BOUBAKER ◽  
SOUHIR BEN AMOR ◽  
Hichem Rezgui

This study investigates the performance of a novel neural network technique in the problem of price forecasting. To improve the prediction accuracy using each model’s unique features, this research proposes a hybrid approach that combines the -factor GARMA process, empirical wavelet transform and the local linear wavelet neural network (LLWNN) methods, to form the GARMA-WLLWNN process. In order to verify the validity of the model and the algorithm, the performance of the proposed model is evaluated using data from Polish electricity markets, and it is compared with the dual generalized long memory -factor GARMA-G-GARCH model and the individual WLLWNN. The empirical results demonstrated the proposed hybrid model can achieve a better predicting performance and prove that is the most suitable electricity market forecasting technique.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harmanjot Singh Sandhu

Various machine learning-based methods and techniques are developed for forecasting day-ahead electricity prices and spikes in deregulated electricity markets. The wholesale electricity market in the Province of Ontario, Canada, which is one of the most volatile electricity markets in the world, is utilized as the case market to test and apply the methods developed. Factors affecting electricity prices and spikes are identified by using literature review, correlation tests, and data mining techniques. Forecasted prices can be utilized by market participants in deregulated electricity markets, including generators, consumers, and market operators. A novel methodology is developed to forecast day-ahead electricity prices and spikes. Prices are predicted by a neural network called the base model first and the forecasted prices are classified into the normal and spike prices using a threshold calculated from the previous year’s prices. The base model is trained using information from similar days and similar price days for a selected number of training days. The spike prices are re-forecasted by another neural network. Three spike forecasting neural networks are created to test the impact of input features. The overall forecasting is obtained by combining the results from the base model and a spike forecaster. Extensive numerical experiments are carried out using data from the Ontario electricity market, showing significant improvements in the forecasting accuracy in terms of various error measures. The performance of the methodology developed is further enhanced by improving the base model and one of the spike forecasters. The base model is improved by using multi-set canonical correlation analysis (MCCA), a popular technique used in data fusion, to select the optimal numbers of training days, similar days, and similar price days and by numerical experiments to determine the optimal number of neurons in the hidden layer. The spike forecaster is enhanced by having additional inputs including the predicted supply cushion, mined from information publicly available from the Ontario electricity market’s day-ahead System Status Report. The enhanced models are employed to conduct numerical experiments using data from the Ontario electricity market, which demonstrate significant improvements for forecasting accuracy.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harmanjot Singh Sandhu

Various machine learning-based methods and techniques are developed for forecasting day-ahead electricity prices and spikes in deregulated electricity markets. The wholesale electricity market in the Province of Ontario, Canada, which is one of the most volatile electricity markets in the world, is utilized as the case market to test and apply the methods developed. Factors affecting electricity prices and spikes are identified by using literature review, correlation tests, and data mining techniques. Forecasted prices can be utilized by market participants in deregulated electricity markets, including generators, consumers, and market operators. A novel methodology is developed to forecast day-ahead electricity prices and spikes. Prices are predicted by a neural network called the base model first and the forecasted prices are classified into the normal and spike prices using a threshold calculated from the previous year’s prices. The base model is trained using information from similar days and similar price days for a selected number of training days. The spike prices are re-forecasted by another neural network. Three spike forecasting neural networks are created to test the impact of input features. The overall forecasting is obtained by combining the results from the base model and a spike forecaster. Extensive numerical experiments are carried out using data from the Ontario electricity market, showing significant improvements in the forecasting accuracy in terms of various error measures. The performance of the methodology developed is further enhanced by improving the base model and one of the spike forecasters. The base model is improved by using multi-set canonical correlation analysis (MCCA), a popular technique used in data fusion, to select the optimal numbers of training days, similar days, and similar price days and by numerical experiments to determine the optimal number of neurons in the hidden layer. The spike forecaster is enhanced by having additional inputs including the predicted supply cushion, mined from information publicly available from the Ontario electricity market’s day-ahead System Status Report. The enhanced models are employed to conduct numerical experiments using data from the Ontario electricity market, which demonstrate significant improvements for forecasting accuracy.


2014 ◽  
Vol 41 (9) ◽  
pp. 4422-4433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marzieh Mostafavizadeh Ardestani ◽  
Xuan Zhang ◽  
Ling Wang ◽  
Qin Lian ◽  
Yaxiong Liu ◽  
...  

Author(s):  
Muhammad Shoaib ◽  
Asaad Y. Shamseldin ◽  
Bruce W. Melville ◽  
Mudasser Muneer Khan

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mihály Dolányi ◽  
Kenneth Bruninx ◽  
Jean-François Toubeau ◽  
Erik Delarue

In competitive electricity markets the optimal trading problem of an electricity market agent is commonly formulated as a bi-level program, and solved as mathematical program with equilibrium constraints (MPEC). In this paper, an alternative paradigm, labeled as mathematical program with neural network constraint (MPNNC), is developed to incorporate complex market dynamics in the optimal bidding strategy. This method uses input-convex neural networks (ICNNs) to represent the mapping between the upper-level (agent) decisions and the lower-level (market) outcomes, i.e., to replace the lower-level problem by a neural network. In a comparative analysis, the optimal bidding problem of a load agent is formulated via the proposed MPNNC and via the classical bi-level programming method, and compared against each other.


2013 ◽  
Vol 62 (1) ◽  
pp. 33-49 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pattathal V. Arun ◽  
Sunil K. Katiyar

Abstract Image registration is a key component of various image processing operations which involve the analysis of different image data sets. Automatic image registration domains have witnessed the application of many intelligent methodologies over the past decade; however inability to properly model object shape as well as contextual information had limited the attainable accuracy. In this paper, we propose a framework for accurate feature shape modeling and adaptive resampling using advanced techniques such as Vector Machines, Cellular Neural Network (CNN), SIFT, coreset, and Cellular Automata. CNN has found to be effective in improving feature matching as well as resampling stages of registration and complexity of the approach has been considerably reduced using corset optimization The salient features of this work are cellular neural network approach based SIFT feature point optimisation, adaptive resampling and intelligent object modelling. Developed methodology has been compared with contemporary methods using different statistical measures. Investigations over various satellite images revealed that considerable success was achieved with the approach. System has dynamically used spectral and spatial information for representing contextual knowledge using CNN-prolog approach. Methodology also illustrated to be effective in providing intelligent interpretation and adaptive resampling.


Author(s):  
Weslly Puchalski ◽  
Viviana Cocco Mariani ◽  
Felipe Fidelis Schauenburg ◽  
Leandro dos Santos Coelho

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