scholarly journals The Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Indonesia

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karsinah . ◽  
Sucihatiningsih Dian Wisika Prajanti ◽  
Widiyanto . ◽  
Nor Malisa
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Import Price Index ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The aims of this research are to identify and analyze the exchange rate pass through towards domestic price in Indonesia. The aforementioned objective is reflected through the short-term and long-term influence variable, inflation fluctuation response due to other macroeconomic shock variable, which then reveals the characteristics of pass-through degree in Indonesia. The data used on this research was the quarter time series data from 1997 Q3 until 2017Q4. The variable used in this research were Consumer Price Index, Rupiah exchange value per Dollar, Import Price Index and SBI Interest Rate. The resource of the data variable were from Bank Indonesia and International Monetary Fund (IMF). The method being employed was Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The result of the research shows that in the long-term and short-term period, all variable influences inflation by a different lag. Moreover, the impulse response function assessment reveals that shock variable of import price index receives a positive response by consumer price index. The result of variance decomposition assessment also concludes that the import price index has the biggest contribution.

scholarly journals Exchange Rate Pass Through in a Small Open Economy: A case study of West African Monetary Zone

2013 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 275-290
Author(s):  
Rahman olanrewaju Raji
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Import Prices ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The  study investigated the magnitude of exchange rate pass through to import prices and domestic prices    (consumer price index) in WAMZ economy using quarterly time-series data between 2000 and 2010 with the aids of Vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling technique supported with Johansen co-integration approach cross country analysis comprising of Gambia, Ghana, Nigeria and Sierra-Leone. The study discovered that transmission of exchange rate to import prices is more when compared with consumer price in the zone while the contributions of exchange rate to import price are not less 13 percent at average in entire zone. Consumer price index was explained by exchange rate pass through with an average of 26 percent in the zone where the pass through to consumer price is less than two percent in Ghanaian economy. The Taylor (2000) hypothesis was observed in the study where Ghana and Nigeria are the outlier economies while Nigeria established a positive relationship between interest rate volatility and exchange rate pass through to import prices.

scholarly journals Analisis Indeks Harga Konsumen di Indonesia Melalui Pendekatan Kointegrasi

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 110-118
Author(s):  
Muhamad Muin ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Empirical Study ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
The Relationship

This study aims to analyze the relationship between the rupiah exchange rate (RER) and the money supply (M1) on the outgrowth of the consumer price index (CPI) in Indonesia. The data used in this study are monthly data series from January 2005 to January 2019. The results of this empirical study shows that there is a relationship between RER and M1 on CPI in the long term and there is a correction in the short term balance (ECM) which is influenced by M1. All of these variables are significant at α = 5% and partly significant at α = 1%.

scholarly journals Analysis of Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Indonesia With VECM Approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 424-435
Author(s):  
Nor Malisa ◽  
Karsinah Karsinah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Producer Price ◽  
Import Price Index ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through

The  purpose  of  this  research  is  to  determine  and  analyze  the degree of pass-through in Indonesia, which calculated from the cumulative response of the exchange rate to the CPI and the exchange rate on the exchange rate it self. Data used in this research is quarterly from 1997Q3 to 2017Q4. The variables used in this research are consumer price, rupiah to dollar exchange rate, producer price index, import price index, SBI interest rates, US wholesale price index. Data has sourced by Bank Of Indonesia and International Monetary Fund. The method used in this research is Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The results showed that in the long-term exchange rate, producer price index, import price index, US wholesale price index had a positive effect on CPI while SBI interest rates had a negative effect to the consumer price. The impulse response function test states that in the first quarter only the variable itself was responded by the CPI, the second quarter import price index at the most by 1.2% was able to respond to the CPI. The results of the pass-through degree in Indonesia show that producer price is 0.009 and consumer price is -0.002. The result of variance decomposition shows that the import price index has the largest contribution in influencing the consumer price index. Have to reduce imports of raw materials for self-consumption, but have to import for re-export, so that domestic prices in Indonesia are stable. Tujuan penelitian ini untuk mengetahui dan menganalisis derajat pass-through di Indonesia yang dihitung dari kumulasi respon kurs terhadap IHK dan kurs terhadap kurs. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah data time series triwulan dari tahun 1997Q3 hingga 2017Q4.Variabel yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini antara lain indeks harga konsumen, nilai tukar rupiah per dolar, indeks harga produsen, indeks harga impor, suku bunga SBI, indeks harga perdagangan besar AS. Metode yang digunakan adalah Vector Error Correction model (VECM). Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pada jangka panjang variabel nilai tukar,indeks harga produsen, indeks harga impor, indeks harga perdagangan besar AS berpengaruh positif terhadap IHK sedangkan suku bunga SBI berpengaruh negatif terhadap IHK. Hasil uji impulse response function menyatakan bahwa pada kuartal pertama hanya variabel itu sendiri yang direspon oleh IHK, kuartal kedua indeks harga impor paling besar sebesar 1.2% mampu direspon IHK. Hasil derajat pass-through indeks harga produsen sebesar 0.009 dan indeks harga konsumen sebesar -0.002. Hasil variance decomposition menunjukkan bahwa indeks harga impor mempunyai kontribusi terbesar dalam mempengaruhi indeks harga konsumen. Perlu mengurangi impor bahan baku untuk konsumsi sendiri, namun mengimpor untuk diekspor kembali supaya tingkat harga domestik di Indonesia stabil.

scholarly journals Does the Incomplete Exchange Rate Pass-through Exist in Sudan?

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 147-163
Author(s):  
Ahmed Abdu Allah Ibrahim ◽  
Mohamed Sharif Bashir
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Domestic Price ◽  
Variance Decompositions ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The purpose of this paper is to examine the nominal exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices in Sudan from 1978–2017. An autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration is employed. The analysis is based on impulse response functions (IRFs) and forecast error variance decompositions (FEVDs). The dynamics of the cointegrated system can be investigated via the variance decompositions and IRFs. The findings confirm that the degree of exchange rate pass-through in Sudan is incomplete, and the empirical results also show that the domestic price index is predominantly caused by foreign price in both the short and long runs, in addition to the import price index and the nominal exchange rate; the exchange rate shock has a negative effect on the domestic price. Furthermore, FEVDs analysis illustrates that the variation in domestic price is primarily determined by the import prices, while changes in the exchange rate are primarily determined by the exchange rate itself.

scholarly journals Missing Import Price Changes and Low Exchange Rate Pass-Through

2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 156-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Etienne Gagnon ◽  
Benjamin R. Mandel ◽  
Robert J. Vigfusson
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Large Body ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Price Changes ◽  
Import Price Index ◽  
Exchange Rate Movements ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through ◽  
Bureau Of Labor Statistics

A large body of empirical work has found that exchange rate movements have only modest effects on US inflation. However, exchange rate pass-through may be underestimated because some price changes are missed when constructing price indexes. We investigate downward biases that arise when items exit or enter the US import price index. Using Bureau of Labor Statistics microdata, we find that, although potentially large in theory, the empirical biases are modest over typical forecast horizons. As such, the empirical evidence continues to support the conclusion that pass-through to US import prices is low. (JEL C43, E31, E52, F31)

scholarly journals A Simultaneous-Equation Model of Estimating Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Malaysia

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (3) ◽  
pp. 181-186
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Simultaneous Equation ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Simultaneous Equation Model ◽  
Crude Oil Price ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

Based on an extended IS-LM-AS model, this study finds that a 1% depreciation of the Malaysian ringgit tends to cause the CPI to rise by 0.1194%. Moreover, more M2 money supply, a lower government borrowing as a percent of GDP, a higher crude oil price, a higher U.S. CPI, and a higher expected consumer price index tend to raise Malaysia’s CPI. Therefore, exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) to the consumer price in Malaysia is partial and incomplete.

scholarly journals Exchange rate pass-through in Iran: Exchange rate effects on the consumer price index

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (96) ◽  
pp. 33-64
Author(s):  
S.Mahdi Barakchian ◽  
Ahamd Barkish ◽  
mohsen valizadeh ◽  
◽  
◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Rate Effects ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

scholarly journals Model Koreksi Kesalahan pada Data Runtun Waktu Indeks Harga Konsumen Kota-kota di Papua

d'CARTESIAN ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 81
Author(s):  
Mitha Febby R. Donggori ◽  
Adi Setiawan ◽  
Hanna Arini Parhusip
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Bootstrap Method ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Bootstrap Method

Abstract The Consumer Price Index is used as a measure of inflation. Consumer Price Index data is time series data are often not stationary, causing decision-making related to the data becomes invalid. Consumer Price Index has a different rate of change in each region, as well as for the city of Jayapura, Sorong and Manokwari in Papua. In this paper, Error Correction Model is used to correct short-term imbalances and establish a long term relationship models Consumer Price Index cities - cities in Papua. We use time period : January 2009 to May 2013. To test stationarity  of the data, we use Phillips - Perron unit root test. Engle - Granger cointegration test is performed to determine whether there is a long-term relationship among cities in Papua. Furthermore, the model established by using the Error Correction Method by Domowitz - Elbadawi to correct short- term imbalances and establish long-term relationships model. The obtained Error Correction Models were compared to the results obtained with the bootstrap method . . Keywords : consumer price index, stationarity test, co integration test, error correction model, the bootstrap method Abstrak Indeks Harga Konsumen digunakan sebagai tolok ukur inflasi. Data Indeks Harga Konsumen merupakan data runtun waktu yang seringkali tidak stasioner sehingga menyebabkan pengambilan keputusan yang berkaitan dengan data menjadi tidak valid. Indeks Harga Konsumen memiliki tingkat perubahan yang berbeda di setiap daerah, begitu juga untuk kota Jayapura, Sorong dan Manokwari di Papua. Model koreksi kesalahan digunakan untuk mengoreksi ketidakseimbangan jangka pendek dan membentuk model hubungan jangka panjang Indeks Harga Konsumen kota – kota di Papua pada makalah ini. Periode waktu yang diamati adalah bulan Januari 2009 sampai dengan bulan Mei 2013. Uji stasioneritas data dengan uji akar unit Phillips-Perron, uji kointegrasi Engle-Granger yang dilakukan untuk mengetahui ada tidaknya hubungan jangka panjang di antara kota – kota tersebut. Lebih lanjut, dibentuk model koreksi kesalahan dengan metode Domowitz-Elbadawi untuk mengoreksi ketidakseimbangan jangka pendek dan membentuk model hubungan jangka panjang. Model koreksi kesalahan yang diperoleh dibandingkan dengan hasil yang diperoleh dengan metode bootstrap.   Kata kunci: indeks harga konsumen, uji stasioneritas, uji kointegrasi, model koreksi kesalahan, metode bootstrap

scholarly journals EXCHANGE RATE PASS — THROUGH TO DOMESTIC PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM PAKISTAN

2019 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
FARHAN AHMED SHAIKH ◽  
SYED MUHAMMAD AHSAN HUSSAIN
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Impulse Response ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Wholesale Price Index ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

Exchange Rate Pass — Through is the phenomena that explains to what extent the movements in exchange rate affect macroeconomic variables of any economy. This paper analyses the movements of exchange rate that has affected on wholesale price index, consumer price index, large scale manufacturing, fuel and lightening and the growth of money supply. The data from June 2005 to June 2011 is analyzed by using the econometric framework. In this study, the econometric model, recursive VAR, suggested by McCarthy (2000), is applied in order to measure the movements of exchange rate pass — through to domestic prices by using the impulse response function and variance decomposition. In this study, the results of the impulse response have shown that impact of exchange rate pass through is high on wholesale price index. While the results of the impulse response have shown that the impact of exchange rate pass through is much lower for Consumer Price Index. The result of the variance decomposition has shown that the variance decomposition is indicating that for the CPI variance decomposition is as much as the 5.48 percent. For the WPI the variance decomposition is as much as 10.15 percent and the other variations are explained by the other independent variables.

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