scholarly journals The Effects of Oil Price Changes And Exchange Rate Volatility On Unemployment

2013 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 72-83
Author(s):  
Mohd Shahidan Shaari ◽  
Nor Ermawati Hussain ◽  
Hafizah Abdul Rarhim
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Integration Technique ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

The study aims to examine the effects of oil price and exchange rate on unemployment in Malaysia. The empirical analysis commence by analyzing the time series property of data. The Johansen VAR-based co-integration technique was applied to examine the long run relationship between exchange rate, oil price and unemployment and found the long run relationship does exist. The vector error correction model was performed to check the short run dynamics and found that the short run dynamics are influenced by the estimated long run equilibrium. Granger causality was done and found that oil price does not affect unemployment but exchange rate has an influence on unemployment. Therefore, putting the exchange rate under control should be implemented to control unemployment.

Enhancing Economic Growth and Government Revenue Generation in Nigeria: The Role of Diaspora Remittances

2021 ◽  
pp. 003464462110256
Author(s):  
Dal Didia ◽  
Suleiman Tahir
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
Gross Domestic Product Growth ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Even though remittances constitute the second-largest source of foreign exchange for Nigeria, with a $24 billion inflow in 2018, its impact on economic growth remains unclear. This study, therefore, examined the short-run and long-run impact of remittances on the economic growth of Nigeria using the vector error correction model. Utilizing World Bank data covering 1990–2018, the empirical analysis revealed that remittances hurt economic growth in the short run while having no impact on economic growth in the long run. Our parameter estimates indicate that a 1% increase in remittances would result in a 0.9% decrease in the gross domestic product growth rate in the short run. One policy implication of this study is that Nigeria needs to devise policies and interventions that minimize the emigration of skilled professionals rather than depending on remittances that do not offset the losses to the economy due to brain drain.

scholarly journals Exchange rate Pass-through in russia

2014 ◽  
pp. 21-35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Ponomarev ◽  
P. Trunin ◽  
A. Ulyukayev
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Exchange Rate Pass Through

The article provides estimates of short-run and medium-run exchange rate pass-through in Russia during the period of 2000-2012 using vector error correction model. Estimates of asymmetry of exchange rate pass-through, its assessments in different sub-periods and exchange rate volatility effect are also presented.

The Effect of Real Exchange Rate on Trade Balance in a Resource-Rich Economy: The Case of Mongolia

2018 ◽  
Vol 53 (4) ◽  
pp. 211-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gan-Ochir Doojav
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Trade Balance ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Jel Classification ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Exchange Rate Depreciation

For resource-rich developing economies, the effect of real exchange rate depreciation on trade balance may differ from the standard findings depending on country specific characteristics. This article employs vector error correction model to examine the effect of real exchange rate on trade balance in Mongolia, a resource-rich developing country. Empirical results show that exchange rate depreciation improves trade balance in both short and long run. In particular, the well-known Marshall–Lerner condition holds in the long run; however, there is no evidence of the classic J-curve effects in the short run. The results suggest that the exchange rate flexibility may help to deal effectively with current account deficits and exchange rate risk. JEL Classification: C32, C51, F14, F32

scholarly journals The dynamic effect of exchange-rate volatility on Turkish exports: Parsimonious error-correction model approach

2015 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 429-451 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erdal Demirhan ◽  
Banu Demirhan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Dynamic Effect ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Impulse Response Functions ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Export Volume ◽  
Short Run

This paper aims to investigate the effect of exchange-rate stability on real export volume in Turkey, using monthly data for the period February 2001 to January 2010. The Johansen multivariate cointegration method and the parsimonious error-correction model are applied to determine long-run and short-run relationships between real export volume and its determinants. In this study, the conditional variance of the GARCH (1, 1) model is taken as a proxy for exchange-rate stability, and generalized impulse-response functions and variance-decomposition analyses are applied to analyze the dynamic effects of variables on real export volume. The empirical findings suggest that exchangerate stability has a significant positive effect on real export volume, both in the short and the long run.

scholarly journals Analysis of Internal and External Determinant Variables towards Profitability of Islamic Banking in Indonesia (2014-2020)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 18-34
Author(s):  
Febri Ramadhani ◽  
Muhammad Rizkan
Keyword(s):  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Islamic Banking ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Relationship Of

Indonesia is a country that adheres to a dual banking system, namely conventional and Islamic Banking. The growth rate of Islamic banking in the last three years is higher than conventional banking. However, in total assets, Islamic banking is still far behind conventional banking. Therefore, it is necessary to study further the performance of Islamic banking reflected in its profitability. So, it becomes an alternative input in determining Islamic banking policies. This study aims to know the factors affecting the profitability (ROA) of Islamic Banking in Indonesia. The data used are the 2014-2020 monthly data in the amount of 79 data. The method used in this study is a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to determine the effect of long-run and short-run relationships. The results of the study showed that the long-run relationship of the NPF variable affected and was significant positive toward ROA, CAR affected and was significant negative toward ROA, while the inflation variable had a negative relationship and not significant toward ROA. The results of the short-run relationships showed that the NPF and CAR variables positively affected ROA, while the inflation variable did not significantly affect the ROA.

Public debt, corruption and shadow economy in Africa: an empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Owusu-Nantwi ◽  
Gloria Owusu-Nantwi
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Policies And Programs

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of corruption and shadow economy on public debt in 51 African countries. In addition, the study explores the causal linkage between corruption, shadow economy and public debt.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs vector error correction model and Kao cointegration test to examine the long-run relationship between corruption, shadow economy and public debt in Africa.FindingsThe study finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between corruption and public debt. Further, the study reports a positive and statistically significant effect of shadow economy on public debt. In the short run, the study finds a unidirectional causal relationship between corruption, shadow economy and public debt with the direction of causality running from corruption and shadow economy to public debt, respectively.Practical implicationsThis study recommends that countries should pursue policies and programs that would provide resources to agencies tasked with the responsibility of fighting corruption. This would ensure that countries have effective institutions that curb vulnerabilities to corruption and reduce the size of the shadow economy and public debt.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by showing how corruption and shadow economy affects public debts of African countries. To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first attempt to examine this relationship in the context of Africa.

scholarly journals PENGARUH STRUKTUR KEPEMILIKAN DAN STRUKTUR MODAL TERHADAP HARGA SAHAM

2018 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 89
Author(s):  
Rani Raharjanti ◽  
Nur Setyowati
Keyword(s):  
Stock Price ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Managerial Ownership ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Cointegration Tests ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Equity Ratio

This paper aims to investigate the short and long run behavior of ownership structure, capital structure and Indonesian Stock Price over the period from 2007 to 2016. To capture the long run relationships, we used the panel cointegration by Pedroni (1999, 2000, 2004), while the short run relationship are measured by Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The main findings are as follows. First, the result of most results of Pedroni’s panel cointegration tests, suggest the null hypothesis of no cointegration is rejected. In consequence, this result suggests that there is a cointegration between stock price, managerial ownership, institutional ownership, public ownership, debt to equity ratio and earnings per share. Second, the results of VECM indicate that in the short run, only managerial ownership that will influence the stock price.

Revisiting real exchange rate volatility: non-traded goods and cointegrated TFP shocks

2019 ◽  
Vol 72 (1) ◽  
pp. 80-100 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aydan Dogan ◽  
Timo Bettendorf
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Technology Shocks ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Traded Goods ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Real Exchange Rate Volatility

Abstract International real business cycle (IRBC) models predict a real exchange rate volatility that is much lower than the levels observed in the data. In this paper, we build a two-country IRBC model with both a traded and a non-traded goods sector, and calibrate it to UK-euro area (EA) data. We provide evidence on the existence of a cointegrating relationship between UK and EA traded sector total factor productivity (TFP) by estimating a vector error correction model (VECM). To account for this relationship, we incorporate non-stationary technology shocks in the traded sectors in our model, and show that then the model is able to match the observed volatility of the UK–EA real exchange rate. Our analysis points out that both the presence of non-traded sectors and non-stationary technology shocks are necessary to account for the observed volatility in the real exchange rate.

scholarly journals An Econometric Analysis of Inflation and Unemployment in Lebanon: A Vector Error Correction Model (VECM)

2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 133
Author(s):  
Mohammad Khanssa ◽  
Wafaa Nasser ◽  
Abbas Mourad
Keyword(s):  
Phillips Curve ◽  
Vector Error Correction Model ◽  
Econometric Modeling ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Causality Relationship ◽  
The Relationship

This paper uses econometric modeling to test the nature of the relationship between unemployment and inflation in Lebanon throughout the period 1993-2014. It takes the Phillips curve relationship as a reference for the tests. Cointegration, Granger causality and VECM were used to test the relationship both in the short and in the long run. The study resulted in finding out that the Phillips curve relationship doesn’t hold in Lebanon in the short run and came to a conclusion that there is a one-way causality relationship in the long run from unemployment to inflation and not in the opposite direction.

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