Predictors of School Students’ Leisure-Time Physical Activity: An Extended Trans-Contextual Model Using Bayesian Path Analysis
Abstract The present study aimed to examine effects of motivational and social cognition constructs on children’s leisure-time physical activity participation alongside constructs representing implicit processes using an extended trans-contextual model. The study adopted a correlational prospective design. Secondary-school students (N = 502) completed self-report measures of perceived autonomy support from physical education (PE) teachers, autonomous motivation in PE and leisure-time contexts, and social cognition constructs (attitudes, subjective norms, perceived behavioral control), intentions, trait self-control, habits, and past behavior in a leisure-time physical activity context. Five weeks later, students (N = 298) self-reported their leisure-time physical activity participation. Bayesian path analyses supported two key premises of the model: perceived autonomy support predicted autonomous motivation in PE, and autonomous motivation in PE predicted autonomous motivation in leisure time. Both forms of autonomous motivation predicted social cognition constructs and intentions, but did not predict leisure-time physical activity participation. Self-control, attitudes, and past behavior were direct predictors of intentions and leisure-time physical activity participation. Specifying informative priors for key model relations using Bayesian analysis yielded greater precision for some model effects. Findings raise some questions on the predictive validity of the original trans-contextual model, but highlight the value of extending the model to incorporate additional constructs representing non-conscious processes.