(Readiness Assessment of the CIS Countries to Create a Monetary Union with Russia on the Basis of the Criteria of the Theory of Optimum Currency Area)

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexander Knobel ◽  
Alexey Mironov
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Readiness Assessment ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Cis Countries ◽  
Optimum Currency

Is the GCC an optimum currency area (OCA)? Empirical answers from co-movements

2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 873-890
Author(s):  
Tamsir Cham
Keyword(s):  
Financial Crisis ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Optimum Currency

Purpose This paper aims to investigate whether the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is an optimum currency area in the wake of the global financial crisis and low oil prices using annual data from 2000 to 2016. Design/methodology/approach It applies the European Monetary Union as a reference point and co-movement methodology on key variables such as gross domestic product, inflation, terms of trade and current account balance. The findings revealed that all countries meet the macroeconomic convergence criteria and there is greater co-movement of these variables in the GCC. Findings Furthermore, the degree of co-movements increases during the financial crisis and recent low oil prices, which signifies the synchronization of shocks. However, labor is less mobile in the region and current account balance co-movement is relatively weak, but with the endogeneity of a monetary union, these constraints will evaporate as the zone enters monetary unification. The paper recommends that for the GCC monetary union to happen and be sustainable, there needs to be political will. The paper also recommended for the zone to have a common identification card so that nationals can move and work freely within the GCC region. Originality/value The study defers from the others in the following: this paper considered shock synchronization and co-movement methodology, which has not been applied in the region to assess its feasibility as an OCA.

Effective European monetary union in the light of the optimum currency area; model countries: Germany and Poland

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ergin Akalpler
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
Unit Root ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Panel Cointegration ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Single Currency ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Optimum Currency

PurposeThis study aims to research the effects of unemployment wages current account and consumer price index (CPI) on the real gross domestic product (RGDP), which, in the optimum currency area (OCA) theory, supposes that countries with higher factor mobility can significantly profit from the currency area. However, in this study, it is shown that the considered optimum currency crisis (OCC) model is affected by mobility factors, as the defined theory has not been perfectly realised in the Eurozone.Design/methodology/approachIn this study, Breusch–Pagan–Godfrey and Lagrange multiplier (LM) tests are used for supporting the survey for better estimation of the panel cointegration tests, where Pedroni's (1995, 1997) technique is used. The unit root tests are employed, of which the Phillip–Perron and augmented Dickey–Fuller tests (unit root test, Dickey, D. and W. Fuller, 1979) are considered.FindingsIt can be concluded that demand shocks will tend to be more asymmetric instead of being symmetric, even though they are in the customs union (CU). However, Polish workers in a given scenario may move to Germany, but because of the rigidity of the labour market and qualification differences between workers, the interregional integration of member countries is reduced, and this reduces the absorption of asymmetric shocks. In Germany, where strong employment protection and rigidity are observed in comparison to Poland, although there has been historical migration and economical collaboration, unfortunately, the integration of the two countries’ economies has not been realised.Research limitations/implicationsQuantitative research on fiscal union and the estimation of its effects is not possible because there is no practical experience of fiscal union throughout the European Union (EU). However, quantitative research is used for estimating the effects of OCA in the Eurozone. Quantitative investigation is particularly focused on the monetary union and single currency and its impact on growth rate. In this study, the ordinary least squares (OLS) method and panel cointegration test are employed for estimating the effects of the considered variables.Practical implicationsThe Eurozone and the application of a single currency throughout the EU was a considerably difficult task. In addition, the adoption of a single currency was not easy for those member countries that fulfilled the “convergence criteria” (or “Maastricht criteria”) and who joined the Eurozone, because only adoption is not enough; maintenance of those criteria is also required. This study analysed the application of the Eurozone in the light of the OCA of Mundel's theory.Social implicationsThe OCA is important for member countries’ economic relations. However, the application of a single currency is not easy and needs to be controlled and regulated to ensure best practises throughout the Eurozone. Monetary integration is not a simple process, and Eurozone countries’ financial difficulties affect each other’s markets’ indifferent aspects. Particularly in any market recession, demand shocks tend to have different effects. Furthermore, in comparison to the monetary union, the CU has a considerable impact on trade enlargement.Originality/valueIn this study, the effects of the independent variables “wages, unemployment, CPI and capital flow” on the dependent variable “RGDP” is considered, which, in the OCA theory, supposes that countries with higher factor mobility can significantly profit from the currency area. In application, it was turned into crisis because of inadequate monetary and fiscal application. In this paper OCA is questioned in the light of the Eurozone for bringing better understanding to these difficulties. The considered model and estimations are used for evaluating to create sustainable monetary integration for economic growth.

scholarly journals Does ECOWAS Macroeconomic Convergence Criteria Satisfy an Optimum Currency Area?

2018 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. p61
Author(s):  
Louis S. Nkwatoh
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Union ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
West African ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Stabilization Policy ◽  
Convergence Criteria ◽  
Economic Community ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Optimum Currency ◽  
Regional Grouping

The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) countries have expressed their desire to establish a monetary union by the year 2020 based on six macroeconomic convergence criteria. The desire is predicated on a series of strategies and various treaties ratified and signed by various ECOWAS Heads of governments and Central Banks’ Governors with more emphasis on the Maastricht-type set of convergence criteria that must be satisfied by all member countries before they ascend to the envisaged monetary union. Even though the convergence criteria may guarantee macroeconomic stability in a regional grouping, critics assert that the convergence criteria are insufficient and inconsequential to the formation of monetary union. The objective of this study is to ascertain whether ECOWAS countries have met all the macroeconomic convergence criteria making them fit for a monetary union. The analyses indicate that no ECOWAS country has met all the convergence criteria at a given point in time implying that the level of macroeconomic convergence in the region still remains inadequate relative to the set targets. However, WAEMU sub-set economies have met three of the criteria -public debts to GDP Ratio, deficits including grants, annual percentage inflation rate. The simple reason is that WAEMU is an existing monetary union with a common stabilization policy.

scholarly journals THE ROLE OF ASEAN EXCHANGE RATE UNIT (AERU) FOR ASEAN-5 MONETARY INTEGRATION: AN OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA

2013 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 59-88
Author(s):  
Dimas Bagus Wiranata Kusuma ◽  
Syed Mohammed Abud Ashif ◽  
Ali Musa Harahap ◽  
Muhammad Alam Omarsyah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Convergence Theory ◽  
Monetary Integration ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Member States ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
National Currencies ◽  
Optimum Currency

The idea for regional monetary integration is grounded by the process of convergence theory within the member states. The paper analyses the possibility of monetary union in ASEAN-5 countries, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore. In terms of volatility, by using nominal deviation indicator assessment, the ASEAN-5 currencies are suggested to peg their national currencies into Yuan since it empirically brings the lowest level of volatility, both during normal and crisis periods. Therefore, Yuan could be proposed as the anchor currency for ASEAN-5 countries. Moreover, valuing the AERU in terms of a weighed average of Yuan is important to determine which countries are considered to be an Optimum Currency Area (OCA). The results statistically suggest that all ASEAN-5 countries could be grouped as OCA according to exchange rate stability criterion.Keywords : Optimum Currency Area, AERU, ASEAN-5, Exchange Rate StabilityJEL Classification : D81, E52, F15, F36

scholarly journals EMU – “Optimum” or “Viable” Currency Area?

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andreea Bucur
Keyword(s):  
European Union ◽  
Economic Integration ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
European Monetary Union ◽  
Research Effort ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
European Monetary ◽  
European Union Enlargement ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Optimum Currency

Although the increasing heterogeneity as an effect of European Union enlargement, referring especially to the last two waves, is perceived as a single internal market and also euro single currency risk, European Monetary Union represents an important step towards deepening economic integration. Controversy on the Optimum Currency Area issue has created difficulties in empirical research effort to find appropriate responses to the EMU dilemma: is Euro zone an „optimum” or rather “viable” currency area?

scholarly journals Similarities of External Shocks responses of Armenia and Russia: SVAR Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 198
Author(s):  
Robert Tumanyan
Keyword(s):  
Empirical Evidence ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Correlation Analyses ◽  
Structural Differences ◽  
Optimum Currency

The feasibility of EUAE countries to form a Monetary Union is analyzed. The paper uses SVAR methodology to examine impact of External Shocks to specific case of Armenia and Russia alongside with correlation analyses of responses. In this framework, empirical evidence allows to affirm that Armenia and Russia do not meet a criteria of Optimum currency area “similarities in external shock’s responses,” the results underline structural differences of economies and asymmetry in external shock’s responses, therefore EUEA countries are not ready for Monetary union, and deeper integration is needed. 

scholarly journals Monetary Union Accession and the Severity of Potential Asymmetric Shocks - the Case of Lithuania and Poland

Ekonomika ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 83 ◽  
Author(s):  
Radosław Kurach ◽  
Jerzy Stelmach
Keyword(s):  
Economic Policy ◽  
Business Cycles ◽  
Monetary Union ◽  
Currency Union ◽  
Optimum Currency Area ◽  
Seminal Paper ◽  
Currency Area ◽  
Asymmetric Shocks ◽  
Optimum Currency ◽  
Benefits And Costs

Monetary union accession generates benefits and costs for the entering countries. According to the seminal paper by Mundell (1961), the possible costs are usually associated with the asymmetric shocks that might take place. Under the currency union regime, these asymmetric shocks can be no longer neutralized by the countryspecific monetary policy tools, hence the flexibility of the economy is desirable.In this article, we employ the measure of business cycles correlation proposed by Artis and Zhang (1995) as well as labor market statistics to examine how easy the economies of Lithuania and Poland can adjust to asymmetric shocks in comparison to some other EU countries. Discussing the empirical results, we propose recommendations for economic policy that might help to fulfil the conditions of the Optimum Currency Area.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document