Due to perceived risks of air pollution in urban areas, inhabitants may develop intentions of migrating to another place with better air quality. The brain drain phenomenon occurs when talented workforces leave their current living places, causing serious loss of valuable human resources. The complex interactions among demographic factors that may influence migration intention require deeper investigation. Based on the theoretical foundation of the Mindsponge framework of information processing, we employ Bayesian analysis on a dataset of 475 citizens in Hanoi, Vietnam. We found the existence of the brain drain effect for both domestic and international migration intentions induced by air pollution concerns. Regarding intentions to migrate domestically, the probability is higher for young people and males than their counterparts. Our findings suggest environmental stressors can induce changes in citizen displacement on a large scale through the psychological mechanism of personal cost-benefit evaluation. Furthermore, policymakers need to consider the long-term negative effects of air pollution on human resources and strive to build an ‘eco-surplus culture’ for improving environmental sustainability and socio-economic resilience.
Brain drain out of the blue: pollution-induced migration in a developing country