scholarly journals An analysis of key sectors of economic growth in Greece: A VAR testing approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4) ◽  
pp. 7-12
Author(s):  
Konstantinos Spinthiropoulos ◽  
Alexandros Garefalakis ◽  
Dimitrios Charamis ◽  
Georgios Gerakis ◽  
Anastasios Konstantinidis
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Term Relation ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Greek Economy ◽  
The One ◽  
The Relationship

The purpose of the study is to examine the relationship that exists between tourism, money supply and construction, on the one hand, and the economic growth in Greece, using a multivariate autoregressive model VAR. The long-term relation based on the Cointegration test results has shown the existence of a long run relation despite the prolonged economic recession. The analysis was carried out for the period from 1965 to 2015. The empirical results show that the economy of Greece can recover and return to long run equilibrium with a speed of adjustment reaching 3,60 % per year. The global economic crisis has undoubtedly affected the Greek economy. Long before the onset of the economic crisis, Greece applied a model of economic growth that relied on the growth of the manufacturing sector. In particular, the development of the construction sector was the engine of the Greek economy. However, through our analysis, it turns out that the engine for the development of the Greek economy is tourism rather than construction. The relationship between construction and the supply of money in Greece’s GDP is positive. However, the dynamics of the tourism industry stand out in comparison to the other areas examined.

scholarly journals Tourism Industry and Economic Growth Nexus in Beijing, China

Economies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Songling ◽  
Muhammad Ishtiaq ◽  
Bui Thi Thanh
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Economic Development ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Growth Index ◽  
Strong Relationship ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Beijing China

In the developing economy, tourism is the most visible and steadiest growing facade. Tourism is considered one of the rapidly increasing elements for economic development from the last two decades. Therefore, the proposed study used vector autoregression (VAR) model, error correction model (ECM), and the Granger causality to check the relationship between the tourism industry and economic growth based on the data of the Beijing municipal bureau of statistics from 1994 to 2015. Gross domestic product (GDP) is used as a replacement variable for the economic growth index, while internal tourism revenue is used as a tourism industry indicator. The study supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis proposed in the existing literature in a different survey of tourism and economic development. The results show that there is a strong relationship in the tourism industry and economic growth in the context of Beijing, and at the same time, tourism creates a more significant increase in long run local real economic accomplishments. The results of the VAR model confirm that in the long run, Beijing’s economic growth is affected by domestic tourism, while the ECM model shows unidirectional results in the short term. Similarly, there is a one-way causal relationship between the tourism industry and economic growth in Beijing, China. The empirical results are in strong support of the concept that tourism causes growth.

scholarly journals Economic Growth, Agricultural Output and Tourism Development in Nigeria: An Application of the ARDL Bound Testing Approach

2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 786
Author(s):  
Adedoyin Isola LAWAL ◽  
Abiola John ASALEYE ◽  
Joseph ISEOLORUNKANMI ◽  
Olabisis Rashidat POPOOLA
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Policy Instruments ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Agricultural Output ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Testing Approach ◽  
The One ◽  
Simple Technology

Drawing from three tourism-growth theories: tourism led growth theory; growth led tourism theory; tourism – growth neutrality theory; and one agriculture-growth nexus theory – agriculture overlapping theory, this study used the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound testing approach to examine whether or not cointegration exist among economic growth, agricultural output and tourism development in Nigeria. We intend to know what policy instruments need to be manipulated so as to achieve economic growth, increase agricultural output and enhance tourism development. From the results, it is evidence that a two –way cointegration exists between economic growth and agricultural output on the one hand, and between economic growth and tourism development on the other hand. The study also observed that a compelling long run relationship exist between agricultural output and tourism development. To achieve sustainable economic growth, policy makers are advised to pursue heavy investment in the tourism industry, adopts improved farming strategies driven by simple technology among others.

scholarly journals The Interactive Relationship between Sci-Tech Innovation and Economic Growth: An Empirical Study Based on China Macroeconomic Data

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 82
Author(s):  
QiTong Yu ◽  
WenYu Dong
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Dramatic Improvement ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Policy Suggestions ◽  
Interactive Relationship ◽  
The One ◽  
The Relationship

In the past decades, China has embraced a rapid development in its economy. And the sci-tech innovation has also gained unprecedented prosperity during the period. The progress in sci-tech innovation has boosted larger output in multiple industries of China, and thus having great contributions to the dramatic improvement in China’s economy. The studies on the relationship between sci-tech innovation and economic growth has long been existed, however, most of which only focus on the one-way research, namely the effects of sci-tech innovation on the economic growth. Based on this status quo, this paper innovates from the research method to focus on the interactive relationship between sci-tech innovation and economic growth, establishing a VAR model to analyze their immediate structural relationship and long-term dynamic relationship, and finds out that the effects of sci-tech innovation on economic growth are immediate positive, while those on sci-tech innovation achievements appear in the long run. In the last part, this paper puts forward policy suggestions on the maximization of sci-tech innovation and economic growth based on the results.

scholarly journals Empirical Analysis of the Relationship Between the Development of China's Tourism Industry and Economic Growth Based on VAR Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (4) ◽  
pp. 100
Author(s):  
Lianfeng Zhang ◽  
Yuriy Danko ◽  
Jianmin Wang ◽  
Zhuanqing Chen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Var Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Relationship ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between tourism development and economic growth has been a hot topic in the field of tourism economy in recent years, and whether there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between tourism development variables and economic variables (usually GDP) is also a hot topic. By identifying the long-term equilibrium relationship between two variables, we can find the quantitative variation law (generally effect) of one variable with the other. Based on the vector autoregression of the time series data of China's tourism development from 2000 to 2019, it is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between China's tourism foreign exchange income and domestic tourism gross income and their respective GDP, and the long-term effect is 99% respectively. Through the establishment of the VAR model for the development of China's tourism industry and economic growth, in the long run, they have a balanced relationship of mutual promotion, so as to further guide the development of China's tourism.

Electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 16
Author(s):  
Ahmad Ghazali Ismail ◽  
Arlinah Abd Rashid ◽  
Azlina Hanif
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Use ◽  
Electricity Consumption ◽  
Panel Estimation ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Bidirectional Relationship ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship and causality direction between electricity consumption and economic growth is an important issue in the fields of energy economics and policies towards energy use. Extensive literatures has discussed the issue, but the array of findings provides anything but consensus on either the existence of relations or direction of causality between the variables. This study extends research in this area by studying the long-run and causal relations between economic growth, electricity consumption, labour and capital based on the neo-classical one sector aggregate production technology mode using data of electricity consumption and real GDP for ASEAN from the year 1983 to 2012. The analysis is conducted using advanced panel estimation approaches and found no causality in the short run while in the long-run, the results indicate that there are bidirectional relationship among variables. This study provides supplementary evidences of relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in ASEAN.

ANALISIS PENGARUH EKSPOR TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI INDONESIA

2017 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-20
Author(s):  
Ari Mulianta Ginting
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Export Performance ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Administration System ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Available Information ◽  
Increasing Trends ◽  
The Relationship

Ekspor merupakan salah satu faktor terjadinya peningkatan pertumbuhan ekonomi suatu negara, sejalan dengan hipotesis export-led growth (ELG). Penelitian ini menganalisis perkembangan ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia periode kuartal I 2001 sampai dengan kuartal IV 2015. Penelitian ini menggunakan analisis deskriptif dalam menggambarkan perkembangan pertumbuhan ekonomi serta ekspor dan analisis kuantitatif metode Error Correction Model (ECM) dalam menganalisis efek jangka panjang dan jangka pendek dari ekspor terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi. Pada periode penelitian, data yang ada menunjukkan bahwa ekspor dan pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia sama-sama mengalami peningkatan. Hasil regresi ECM menunjukkan bahwa ekspor memiliki pengaruh yang positif dan signifikan secara statistik terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia, yang mendukung hipotesis bahwa ELG berlaku untuk Indonesia. Berdasarkan hasil penelitian ini, maka untuk mendorong pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia diperlukan peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia. Peningkatan kinerja ekspor Indonesia dapat dilakukan dengan berbagai cara, salah satunya adalah dengan perbaikan sistem administrasi ekspor, peningkatan riset dan pengembangan produk Indonesia, peningkatan sarana dan prasarana infrastruktur, stabilitas nilai tukar dan perluasan pasar non tradisional, termasuk perbaikan struktur ekspor komoditas. Export is one of the factors behind the economic growth which is in line with the export-led growth hypotesis (ELG). This research analyzes the relationship between economic growth and export of Indonesia during first quarter of 2001 until fourth quarter of 2015. It employs descriptive analysis to describe export movement and economic growth during the study period and ECM model to analyze the long run and the short run effects of export on the economic growth. The available information indicated that, during the study period, both export and economic growth showed similar increasing trends. The result of the ECM model revealed that export had a positive and statistically significant relationship with the economic growth, supporting the hypotesis of ELG in Indonesia. Hence, to accelerate economic growth, efforts are required to boost the export performance in Indonesia. The Export performance can be increased by several way, such as improving the export administration system, increasing the research and development of Indonesian products, improving the facilities and infrastructure, exchange rate stability and the non-tradisional markets expansion, and including improvement of the export commodity structure.

scholarly journals Non-bank financial institutions and economic growth: Evidence from Africa’s three largest economies

2017 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ronald Rateiwa ◽  
Meshach J. Aziakpono
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
South Africa ◽  
Financial Institutions ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Series Data ◽  
The Sustainable Development ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Relationship

Background: In order for the post-2015 world development agenda – termed the sustainable development goals (SDGs) – to succeed, there is a pronounced need to ensure that available resources are used more effectively and additional financing is accessed from the private sector. Given that traditional bank lending has slowed down, the development of non-bank financing has become imperative. To this end, this article intends to empirically test the role of non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) in stimulating economic growth.Aim: The aim of this article is to empirically test the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between economic growth and the development of NBFIs, and the causality thereof.Setting: The empirical assessment uses time-series data from Africa’s three largest economies, namely, Egypt, Nigeria and South Africa, over the period 1971–2013.Methods: This article uses the Johansen cointegration and vector error correction model within a country-specific setting.Results: The results showed that the long-run relationship between NBFI development and economic growth is relatively stronger in Egypt and South Africa, than in Nigeria. Evidence in respect of Nigeria shows that such a relationship is weak. The nature of the relationship between NBFI development and economic growth in Egypt is positive and significant, and predominantly bidirectional. This suggests that a virtuous relationship between NBFIs and economic growth exists in Egypt. In South Africa, the relationship is positive and significant and predominantly runs from NBFI development to economic growth, implying a supply-leading phenomenon. In Nigeria, the results are weak and mixed.Conclusion: The study concludes that in countries with more developed financial systems, the role of NBFIs and their importance to the economic growth process are more pronounced. Thus, there is need for developing policies targeted at developing the NBFI sector, given their potential to contribute to economic growth.

A NOTE ON INFLATION, ECONOMIC GROWTH, AND INCOME INEQUALITY

2009 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 138-147 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi Jin
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Income Inequality ◽  
Endogenous Growth ◽  
Money Growth ◽  
Relative Importance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Endogenous Growth Model ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Negative Growth

This paper develops a monetary endogenous growth model with capital and skill heterogeneity to analyze the relationship among inflation, growth, and income inequality. In the model inflation, growth, and inequality are jointly determined. We show that an increase in the long-run money growth rate raises inflation and reduces growth, but its effect on income inequality depends on the relative importance of the two types of heterogeneity. Inequality shrinks with the rise of inflation when capital heterogeneity dominates and enlarges when skill heterogeneity dominates. Therefore, our model supports a negative (positive) inflation–inequality relationship and a positive (negative) growth–inequality relationship when capital (skill) heterogeneity dominates. In any event, inflation and growth are negatively related.

scholarly journals Risk or Resilience? The Role of Trade Integration and Foreign Ownership for the Survival of German Enterprises During the Crisis 2008–2010

2014 ◽  
Vol 234 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joachim Wagner ◽  
John P. Weche Gelübcke
Keyword(s):  
Economic Crisis ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Economic Recession ◽  
Firm Survival ◽  
Trade Integration ◽  
Striking Result ◽  
Global Recession ◽  
Factor Markets ◽  
Western Germany

SummaryThis is the first study of the link between internationalization and firm survival during the 2008/2009 crisis in Germany, a country which was hit relatively lightly compared to other countries. Moreover, it is the first study which looks at the role of importing, exporting and FDI simultaneously in the context of a global economic recession. We use a tailor-made representative dataset that covers all enterprises from the manufacturing sector with at least 20 employees. Our most striking result is to demonstrate the disadvantage of exporting for the chances of survival of a firm during the crisis in western Germany. Importing instead reveals a positive correlation with survival and firms that both export and import do not show a different exit risk relative to non-traders. A plausible explanation is that in a global recession, deteriorating markets abroad cause demand losses for exporters and improved conditions on factor markets which result in an advantage for firms sourcing from factor markets abroad. Two-way traders do not show a link with exit risk, supporting the idea that they were able to outweigh their losses from exporting with their gains from importing, in what could be called an export-import hedge. Furthermore, we cannot support the hypothesis that foreign multinationals are more volatile during times of economic crisis.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

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