scholarly journals Combining range and phenology shifts offers a winning strategy for boreal Lepidoptera

Author(s):  
Maria Hällfors ◽  
Juha Pöyry ◽  
Janne Heliölä ◽  
Ilmari Kohonen ◽  
Mikko Kuussaari ◽  
...  

Species can adapt to climate change by adjusting in situ or by dispersing to new areas, and these strategies may complement or enhance each other. Here, we investigate temporal shifts in phenology and spatial shifts in northern range boundaries for 289 Lepidoptera species by using long-term data sampled over two decades. While 40% of the species neither advanced phenology nor moved northward, nearly half (47%) -used one of the two strategies. The strongest positive population trends was observed for the minority of species (13%) that both advanced flight phenology and shifted their northern range boundaries northward. We show that, for Boreal Lepidoptera, a combination of phenology and range shifts is the most viable strategy under a changing climate. Effectively, this may divide species into winners and losers based on their propensity to capitalize on this combination, with potentially large consequences on future community composition.

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Rödder ◽  
Thomas Schmitt ◽  
Patrick Gros ◽  
Werner Ulrich ◽  
Jan Christian Habel

AbstractClimate change impacts biodiversity and is driving range shifts of species and populations across the globe. To understand the effects of climate warming on biota, long-term observations of the occurrence of species and detailed knowledge on their ecology and life-history is crucial. Mountain species particularly suffer under climate warming and often respond to environmental changes by altitudinal range shifts. We assessed long-term distribution trends of mountain butterflies across the eastern Alps and calculated species’ specific annual range shifts based on field observations and species distribution models, counterbalancing the potential drawbacks of both approaches. We also compiled details on the ecology, behaviour and life-history, and the climate niche of each species assessed. We found that the highest altitudinal maxima were observed recently in the majority of cases, while the lowest altitudes of observations were recorded before 1980. Mobile and generalist species with a broad ecological amplitude tended to move uphill more than specialist and sedentary species. As main drivers we identified climatic conditions and topographic variables, such as insolation and solar irradiation. This study provides important evidence for responses of high mountain taxa to rapid climate change. Our study underlines the advantage of combining historical surveys and museum collection data with cutting-edge analyses.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasia Iona ◽  
Athanasios Theodorou ◽  
Sarantis Sofianos ◽  
Sylvain Watelet ◽  
Charles Troupin ◽  
...  

Abstract. We present a new product composed of a set of thermohaline climatic indices from 1950 to 2015 for the Mediterranean Sea such as decadal temperature and salinity anomalies, their mean values over selected depths, decadal ocean heat and salt content anomalies at selected depth layers as well as their long times series. It is produced from a new high-resolution climatology of temperature and salinity on a 1/8° regular grid based on historical high quality in situ observations. Ocean heat and salt content differences between 1980–2015 and 1950–1979 are compared for evaluation of the climate shift in the Mediterranean Sea. The spatial patterns of heat and salt content shifts demonstrate in greater detail than ever before that the climate changes differently in the several regions of the basin. Long time series of heat and salt content for the period 1950 to 2015 are also provided which indicate that in the Mediterranean Sea there is a net mean volume warming and salting since 1950 with acceleration during the last two decades. The time series also show that the ocean heat content seems to fluctuate on a cycle of about 40 years and seems to follow the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation climate cycle indicating that the natural large scale atmospheric variability could be superimposed on to the warming trend. This product is an observations-based estimation of the Mediterranean climatic indices. It relies solely on spatially interpolated data produced from in-situ observations averaged over decades in order to smooth the decadal variability and reveal the long term trends with more accuracy. It can provide a valuable contribution to the modellers' community, next to the satellite-based products and serve as a baseline for the evaluation of climate-change model simulations contributing thus to a better understanding of the complex response of the Mediterranean Sea to the ongoing global climate change. The product is available here: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1210100.


Water ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 3358
Author(s):  
Patrik Sleziak ◽  
Roman Výleta ◽  
Kamila Hlavčová ◽  
Michaela Danáčová ◽  
Milica Aleksić ◽  
...  

The changing climate is a concern with regard to sustainable water resources. Projections of the runoff in future climate conditions are needed for long-term planning of water resources and flood protection. In this study, we evaluate the possible climate change impacts on the runoff regime in eight selected basins located in the whole territory of Slovakia. The projected runoff in the basins studied for the reference period (1981–2010) and three future time horizons (2011–2040, 2041–2070, and 2071–2100) was simulated using the HBV (Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning) bucket-type model (the TUW (Technische Universität Wien) model). A calibration strategy based on the selection of the most suitable decade in the observation period for the parameterization of the model was applied. The model was first calibrated using observations, and then was driven by the precipitation and air temperatures projected by the KNMI (Koninklijk Nederlands Meteorologisch Instituut) and MPI (Max Planck Institute) regional climate models (RCM) under the A1B emission scenario. The model’s performance metrics and a visual inspection showed that the simulated runoff using downscaled inputs from both RCM models for the reference period represents the simulated hydrological regimes well. An evaluation of the future, which was performed by considering the representative climate change scenarios, indicated that changes in the long-term runoff’s seasonality and extremality could be expected in the future. In the winter months, the runoff should increase, and decrease in the summer months compared to the reference period. The maximum annual daily runoff could be more extreme for the later time horizons (according to the KNMI scenario for 2071–2100). The results from this study could be useful for policymakers and river basin authorities for the optimum planning and management of water resources under a changing climate.


Biologia ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 61 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zdravko Dolenec

AbstractIncreasing evidence suggests that climate change affects bird breeding phenology and other life-history traits of wildlife. This study is based on the mean spring temperatures (February, March, April) and laying dates of first eggs of the marsh tit Parus palustris. We collected data from 1984 to 2004 for the Mokrice area in NW Croatia. Correlation between laying date and mean spring temperatures was significant. The relationship between mean laying date (y) and air temperature (x) can be expressed as y = 44.69 − 2.08x. Results indicate that spring temperatures are a good predictor of timing of laying eggs. Such long-term data could than be used in order to assess the effects on biological systems if human activities influence climate.


2016 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 83-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
V. Ilinich ◽  
E. Akulova ◽  
V. Belchihina ◽  
K. Ponomarchuk

Science ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 367 (6478) ◽  
pp. 685-688 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Soroye ◽  
Tim Newbold ◽  
Jeremy Kerr

Climate change could increase species’ extinction risk as temperatures and precipitation begin to exceed species’ historically observed tolerances. Using long-term data for 66 bumble bee species across North America and Europe, we tested whether this mechanism altered likelihoods of bumble bee species’ extinction or colonization. Increasing frequency of hotter temperatures predicts species’ local extinction risk, chances of colonizing a new area, and changing species richness. Effects are independent of changing land uses. The method developed in this study permits spatially explicit predictions of climate change–related population extinction-colonization dynamics within species that explains observed patterns of geographical range loss and expansion across continents. Increasing frequencies of temperatures that exceed historically observed tolerances help explain widespread bumble bee species decline. This mechanism may also contribute to biodiversity loss more generally.


2016 ◽  
pp. zow109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simone Santoro ◽  
Cristina Sanchez-Suarez ◽  
Carlos Rouco ◽  
L. Javier Palomo ◽  
M. Carmen Fernández ◽  
...  

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anikó Cséplő ◽  
István Geresdi ◽  
Ákos Horváth

<p>The reports about the climate change mostly focus about the trend of the temperature or precipitation. However, the relative humidity is also an important characteristic of the atmosphere, e.g. it impacts both the cloud and fog formation. The trends of the relative humidity in the changing climate have been found to be rather uncertain.  In this research the climatological trend of the relative humidity in the Carpathian Valley was studied. Analysis of the long-term observed database from eight meteorological stations was used to present the annual and seasonal trends of the relative humidity. The annual trend was found to be between 2-3% in every meteorological station. The results show that the relative humidity has decreased every season but in autumn, when the trend of it has not been consistent. While the most significant decrease has been occurred during spring, the decrease was negligible during autumn.</p>


2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 238-251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Bezner Kerr ◽  
Hanson Nyantakyi-Frimpong ◽  
Laifolo Dakishoni ◽  
Esther Lupafya ◽  
Lizzie Shumba ◽  
...  

AbstractClimate change is projected to have severe implications for smallholder agriculture in Africa, with increased temperatures, increased drought and flooding occurrence, and increased rainfall variability. Given these projections, there is a need to identify effective strategies to help rural communities adapt to climatic risks. Yet, relatively little research has examined the politics and social dynamics around knowledge and sources of information about climate-change adaptation with smallholder farming communities. This paper uses a political ecology approach to historically situate rural people's experiences with a changing climate. Using the concept of the co-production of knowledge, we examine how Malawian smallholder farmers learn, perceive, share and apply knowledge about a changing climate, and what sources they draw on for agroecological methods in this context. As well, we pay particular attention to agricultural knowledge flows within and between households. We ask two main questions: Whose knowledge counts in relation to climate-change adaptation? What are the political, social and environmental implications of these knowledge dynamics? We draw upon a long-term action research project on climate-change adaptation that involved focus groups, interviews, observations, surveys, and participatory agroecology experiments with 425 farmers. Our findings are consistent with other studies, which found that agricultural knowledge sources were shaped by gender and other social inequalities, with women more reliant on informal networks than men. Farmers initially ranked extension services as important sources of knowledge about farming and climate change. After farmers carried out participatory agroecological research, they ranked their own observation and informal farmer networks as more important sources of knowledge. Contradictory ideas about climate-change adaptation, linked to various positions of power, gaps of knowledge and social inequalities make it challenging for farmers to know how to act despite observing changes in rainfall. Participatory agroecological approaches influenced adaptation strategies used by smallholder farmers in Malawi, but most still maintained the dominant narrative about climate-change causes, which focused on local deforestation by rural communities. Smallholder farmers in Malawi are responsible for <1% of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet our results show that the farmers often blame their own rural communities for changes in deforestation and rainfall patterns. Researchers need to consider differences knowledge and power between scientists and farmers and the contradictory narratives at work in communities to foster long-term change.


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