scholarly journals MODEL ESTIMASI GARCH DALAM MENGUKUR KINERJA NILAI TUKAR RUPIAH

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (02) ◽  
pp. 52-61
Author(s):  
Imelda Saluza
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Estimation Model ◽  
High Data ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rates ◽  
High Volatility ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The exchange rate is determined by the demand and supply relationship of the currency. If the demand for a currency increases, while the supply remains or even decreases, then the exchange rate will rise vice versa. The ups and downs of exchange rates on the money market indicate the magnitude of the volatility that occurs in the currency of a State against the currencies of other countries. The volatility phenomenon indicates difficulty in analyzing the exchange rate. Increasing volatility indicates an even greater movement of currency exchange rates even if currency exchange rates experience extreme volatility resulting in economic instability both from the micro and macro sides. The high volatility seen from the pattern of price movements that occur in financial markets, and the impact that can be generated from the high volatility data is the error that will have a variance that is not constant. That is, a relatively high data variability at a time indicates the presence of heteroscedasticity. Heteroscedasticity can lead to errors in drawing a conclusion to the estimated model obtained. Therefore, we need a model that is able to solve the problem that is Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model in order to get more accurate estimation model to estimate exchange rate. From the simulation result, all data contain the volatility seen from the result of heteroscedasticity test, and obtained estimation model for all data.

scholarly journals Web Intelligent for Forecasting Exchange Rate Currency using Clever Extraction Agent Combine with Financial Data Mining

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 1-7
Author(s):  
Khammapun Khantanapoka
Keyword(s):  
Data Mining ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Financial Data ◽  
Exchange Rate Forecasting ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Individual ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Pattern Index

From the current economic climate results in fluctuations of currency exchange rates in all countries. Since the most countries use USD as the reference exchange rate. The exchange rate will change from day to day so variety of factors which affect the exchange rate forecasting in the exchange rates in advance are critical to evaluate for the impact of the economic system of each country. It is important for investment decisions, exports, and profitability in the money market. It was reported on website (www) in the daily exchange rate changes. We use clever search agent (CSA) gather information from financial website generate to financial data mining. Kohonen Neural Networks is the method to determine similarity of internet documents using pattern index of financial document. And Ontology Structure of Sentence is the method to determine keyword using pattern index of financial content. Both are important components of Financial Data Mining. It is analyzed for exchange rate forecasting about USD/ Pounds. Our experimental forecast exchange rates for currency's USD / Great Britain Pounds by compare three algorithms as fallows GA, Meiosis Genetic Algorithms (MGA). This research propose new algorithm is called Dash Predator Swarm Optimization (DP2SO) which are accurate in prediction than other methods in generation of Genetic algorithm (GA) 35.83-41.52% which it depend on the accuracy of the information in each factor which are important finance dataset. It will present the future trends of exchange rate to the individual website.

scholarly journals The Impact of Russia’s Oil-Dominated Energy Economic Changes on the Exchange Rate of Russian Ruble – Chinese Renminbi

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 173
Author(s):  
Maoguo Wu ◽  
Yue Yu
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Explanatory Power ◽  
Close Relation ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Changes ◽  
Pillar Industry ◽  
The Impact

Russia’s economic development has a close relation with China, due to geographical and historical reasons. This paper investigates whether the ruble – renminbi exchange rate changes accordingly when the pillar industry of Russia is drastically changing, and how the exchange rate changes and how it affects Russia’s economic development. In this paper, data of 7 variables spanning 122 months are selected based on related literature and availability of data. Regression analysis and empirical tests are carried out consequently. The results show that the energy price index represented by oil prices is negatively correlated with the exchange rate, and the explanatory power is as high as 41.1%. Following basic arbitrage methods and strategies, this paper verifies the feasibility of using arbitrage by comparing actual exchange rates with forecasted exchange rates. According to empirical results, problems witnessed in the process of ruble internationalization provides policy implications for China. China’s economy is utilized as an example to discuss the shortcomings of Russia’s economy. Related solutions are proposed.

scholarly journals A Study on the Pass-Through Rate of the Exchange Rate on the Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) Import Price in China

2020 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Chaofeng Tang ◽  
Kentaka Aruga
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Natural Gas ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Import Price ◽  
Monetary Reform ◽  
Lag Effect ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
Pass Through ◽  
Liquid Natural Gas ◽  
The Impact

The Chinese liquid natural gas (LNG) import price has been unstable because the stability of LNG import prices is related to changes in the exchange rates. This paper analyzes the pass-through rate of the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and Japanese Yen (JPY) on the Chinese LNG import price. The Time-Varying Parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model is adopted to verify the pass-through rate of the exchange rates on the LNG import price using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Since September 2005, the JPY pass-through rate on the Chinese LNG import price has been decreasing while that of the CNY has been increasing. Notably, the pass-through rate of CNY began to exceed that of JPY after 2008. Moreover, since 2005, the lag effect of the CNY on the Chinese LNG import price became longer compared to JPY. If any new currency reform of the CNY is implemented in the future, then the impact of JPY on the Chinese LNG import price could be reduced and the lag effect of the CNY on the Chinese LNG import price could become longer. Therefore, the fluctuation of the CNY is becoming an important factor in understanding the movements of the Chinese LNG import price. This implies the significance of considering the effect of the exchange rate on an energy market when the market is influenced by a monetary reform of the importing country.

scholarly journals Methods of assessing the impact of dollarization on economic development

VUZF Review ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 12-25
Author(s):  
Оlena Chukurna
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Arima Model ◽  
Machine Building ◽  
Building Industry ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Domestic Prices ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The article considers the transformation of the money function as a consequence of the impact of dollarization on the economic development of countries in the global context. The economic substantiation of the process of dollarization of the economy, which is connected with the function of money, is proved. The influence of dollarization on the macro – and macro levels of the economy is substantiated. Approaches to methods of estimating dollarization on the economic development of the country in the context of globalization are proposed. The article defines the degree of dependence of the machine-building industry of Ukraine on the processes of dollarization of the world economy through the use of the effect of transferring the dynamics of changes in exchange rates to the price dynamics in the machine-building industry. Using the ARIMA model, the effect of transferring the exchange rate to prices for mechanical engineering products is proved. The expediency of using the ARIMA forecasting model to predict the further spread of the effect of the change in exchange rates on prices. An approach is proposed to determine the sensitivity of domestic prices for the products of engineering enterprises to changes in the exchange rate through modified elasticity coefficients. It was determined factors affecting the size of the effect of transfer of the exchange rate on domestic prices for the products of machine-building enterprises.

scholarly journals Estimating the Impact of Devaluation the Exchange Rate on Inflation: A Cause Study of Iraq Using ARDL Model

Webology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 475-486
Author(s):  
Niam A. Fawaz ◽  
Saad A. Hamaad
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Budget Deficit ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
General Level ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Ardl Model ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

The exchange rate tool is one of the most important macroeconomic tools that affect many variables, including the general level of prices, investment, import and export. In the case of a deteriorating economy such as the Iraqi economy, which suffers from a high import rate of final goods and intermediate goods, which are considered inputs to production processes, means exit Foreign exchange to abroad that affects the position of the balance of payments and its imbalance. It is very abnormal for countries to reduce the value of their currency exchange for financing reasons related to financing their public budget deficit without taking into account macroeconomic variables. All of these matters reflect a clear confusion of the fiscal and the monetary policies. The results of the current study by using the ARDL model have proven the direct impact of currency devaluation on inflation.

scholarly journals The co-movement between copper prices and the exchange rate of five major commodity currencies

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Corlise Le Roux ◽  
Gideon Els
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
South African ◽  
The United States ◽  
Copper Price ◽  
United States Dollar ◽  
Correlation And Regression Analysis ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rates ◽  
Commodity Currencies

In this study, the relationship between movements in the exchange rates of five commodity currencies (Australia, Canada, Chile, China, and South Africa) in terms of the United States Dollar (USD) and the spot USD copper price was analysed. Correlation and regression analysis (including the use of lagged variables) was used to investigate these relationships. It was found that four of the five commodity currency exchange rates have a strong co-movement relationship with copper price (i.e. the Australian Dollar, Canadian Dollar, Chilean Peso, and the South African Rand). The only exchange rate that does not have a co-movement relationship with copper prices is the Chinese Yuan. This article is based on a master’s minor dissertation study.

scholarly journals External Debt and its Impact on Exchange Rates in the Philippines

2022 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-103
Author(s):  
Mikayla Mendoza ◽  
Andrew Gonzalez
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
External Debt ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Debt Management ◽  
Foreign Reserves ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
The Impact

The exchange rate is a crucial macroeconomic factor within emerging and transition economies. External debt is a driving force for the growth of an economy. This study then aims to determine the impact of external debt on the exchange rate of the Philippines by examining the impact of external debt accumulation on the Philippines' exchange rates. The researcher applies a correlational time series analysis in order to capture the impact of external debt, debt services on external debt, and foreign reserves on the exchange rate of the Philippines within the period from 1980 to 2019. The relationships between variables based on the developed theoretical framework are analyzed through multiple regression analysis. Empirical results show that external debt and debt services positively impact the exchange rate, while foreign reserves exhibit a negative relationship. The corresponding coefficients indicate that a change in any of the independent variables will cause significant but marginal fluctuations in the exchange rate in the case of the Philippines. The author concludes that external debt encourages the growth of exchange rates in the long run in the case of the Philippines due to its positive relationship. This implies that the Philippine government should aim to focus on more efficient external debt management strategies to enhance the value of the exchange rate of the Philippine Peso relative to other countries. Accordingly, the researcher recommends that the government take the necessary means to reduce the country's external debt to better the economy.

scholarly journals The Impact of Australian Consumer Price Index on the Exchange Rate of Australian Dollar - Chinese Renminbi

2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (22) ◽  
pp. 12
Author(s):  
Maoguo Wu ◽  
Yue Yu
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Asia Pacific ◽  
Steady Increase ◽  
Australian Dollar ◽  
Chinese Investment ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

This paper investigates the impact of Australian consumer price index on Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi exchange rate. As two major economies in Asia Pacific, China and Australia are conducting ever-increasing volume of economic transactions. Massive Chinese investment, particularly in properties, has caused steady increase in Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi. Recent slowdown of Chinese economic growth and Chinese investment in Australia caused both Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi to fall significantly. This paper utilizes data from May 2005 to January 2016 and empirically tests the relation between Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi. In compliance with classical theories of exchange rates, empirical results find that a negative relation exists between Australian consumer price index and the exchange rate of Australian dollar - Chinese renminbi.

scholarly journals The COVID-19 Process and the Exchange Rate Relation: An Application on Turkey

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eda Dineri ◽  
İbrahim Çütçü
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Health Problems ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Economic Changes ◽  
The World ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The recent shocks in supply and demand in the world are not due to unexpected economic reasons; in fact, they are related to Covid-19 that causes rapidly spreading global health problems and life threats around the world. While the global powers are dealing with the social problems created by Covid-19 pandemic, they should not neglect the economic changes created by this pandemic. The most important of these economic changes in developing countries with high fragility is exchange rates, because exchange rates can directly affect many macroeconomic variables, from inflation to foreign trade, from the balance of payments to interests. In countries with high fragility due to the effect of pandemic, economic uncertainty causes fluctuations in the exchange rate. Is the reason for the change in the exchange rate, the number of cases or economic risks that may occur due to possible health problems?In this study, the impact of the number of new cases and the number of new deaths for the process of Covid-19 pandemic on the exchange rate in Turkey is examined. The daily data consider the number of new cases, the number of new deaths and exchange rate for the period of 16.03.2020–06.05.2020. The first step of the analysis, the stationary of the series is tested by Lee and Strazicich (2003) unıt root test which allowed structural break. Hatemi-J (2008) Cointegration Test that allow two structural breaks and Hacker-Hatemi-J Bootstrap causality test are used in the analysis. In the results of the Hatemi- J (2008) cointegration test, there is a medium and long-term relationship, with under structural breaks between the number of new cases and the number of new deaths and the exchange rate. According to the results of the analysis, it can be concluded that the number of new cases and the number of new deaths have a significant effect on the exchange rate, causing uncertainty in the economy.JEL Classification: I19, F31, C22

The Impact of Exchange Rate on Tourism Industry

2015 ◽  
pp. 107-118
Author(s):  
Meryem Samirkaş ◽  
Mustafa Can Samirkaş
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Tourism Industry ◽  
Factors Affecting ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rates ◽  
Tourism Sector ◽  
Causality Tests ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Tourism sector that is increasingly important in the world economy, developing rapidly in Turkey and provides a serious contributions to country's economy because Turkey consistently has a current account deficit, tourism is an important source of income. There are many factors affecting tourism; it is clear that the industry can be affected by changes in macroeconomic variables, just like any other economic focus. In this context, it is possible that the foreign exchange rate and changes in the value of various currencies can affect tourism, especially with regards to the demands of the tourists themselves. By using the Johansen cointegration and Granger causality tests, this chapter focused on identifying the relationship between currency exchange rates and the demand for tourism in Turkey.

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