scholarly journals Refugees welcome, but not in my backyard? The impact of immigration on right-wing voting: evidence from Germany

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Jasny ◽  
Tilman Becker
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Right Wing ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Spatial Econometric ◽  
Christian Democratic Union ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Ruling Party

AbstractThis article studies whether immigration in voter’s neighborhoods is a driving factor of the rise of Germany’s major right-wing party Alternative fuer Deutschland (AFD) and the decline of Angela Merkel’s center ruling party the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). We use the 2015 refugee crisis as a natural experiment to study the short-run impact of refugee presence on the voting behavior in German municipalities. This is the first study to use a spatial econometric framework combining small-scale immigration data, election data, and a set of socioeconomic factors. Our main finding states that the local immigration boosted AFD votes but did not affect CDU votes directly. Instead, in regions that perceived immigration indirectly, that is in neighboring municipalities, the CDU gained fewer votes.

scholarly journals Does Exposure to the Refugee Crisis Make Natives More Hostile?

2018 ◽  
Vol 113 (2) ◽  
pp. 442-455 ◽  
Author(s):  
DOMINIK HANGARTNER ◽  
ELIAS DINAS ◽  
MORITZ MARBACH ◽  
KONSTANTINOS MATAKOS ◽  
DIMITRIOS XEFTERIS
Keyword(s):  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Aegean Sea ◽  
Political Engagement ◽  
Policy Preferences ◽  
Immigration Policies ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Direct Exposure ◽  
Exclusionary Policies ◽  
Muslim Minorities ◽  
The Impact

Although Europe has experienced unprecedented numbers of refugee arrivals in recent years, there exists almost no causal evidence regarding the impact of the refugee crisis on natives’ attitudes, policy preferences, and political engagement. We exploit a natural experiment in the Aegean Sea, where Greek islands close to the Turkish coast experienced a sudden and massive increase in refugee arrivals, while similar islands slightly farther away did not. Leveraging a targeted survey of 2,070 island residents and distance to Turkey as an instrument, we find that direct exposure to refugee arrivals induces sizable and lasting increases in natives’ hostility toward refugees, immigrants, and Muslim minorities; support for restrictive asylum and immigration policies; and political engagement to effect such exclusionary policies. Since refugees only passed through these islands, our findings challenge both standard economic and cultural explanations of anti-immigrant sentiment and show that mere exposure suffices in generating lasting increases in hostility.

scholarly journals Global vs Sectoral Factors and the Impact of the Financialization in Commodity Price Changes

2020 ◽  
Vol 31 (4) ◽  
pp. 859-879
Author(s):  
Pilar Poncela ◽  
Eva Senra ◽  
Lya Paola Sierra
Keyword(s):  
Developing Economies ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Commodity Price ◽  
Commodity Markets ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Economic Agents ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Predictive Content

Abstract Commodity prices influence price levels of a broad range of goods and, in the case of some developing economies, production and export activity. Therefore, information about future commodity inflation is useful for central banks, forward-looking policy-makers, and economic agents whose decisions depend on their expectations about it. After 2004, we have witnessed the so-called financialization of the commodity markets, which might induce greater communalities among commodity prices. This paper reports evidence on the relevance of the forecasting content of co-movement after 2004. With the use of large and small scale factor models we find that for the short run, in addition to dynamics, sectoral communality has relevant predictive content. For 12 months ahead, dynamics lose relevance while communality remains relevant.

How Is Foreign Aid Spent? Evidence from a Natural Experiment

2009 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 225-244 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Werker ◽  
Faisal Z Ahmed ◽  
Charles Cohen
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Aid ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Capital Flight ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
Domestic Savings ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

We use oil price fluctuations to test the impact of transfers from wealthy OPEC nations to their poorer Muslim allies. The instrument identifies plausibly exogenous variation in foreign aid. We investigate how aid is spent by tracking its short-run effect on aggregate demand, national accounts, and balance of payments. Aid affects most components of GDP though it has no statistically identifiable impact on prices or economic growth. Much aid is consumed, primarily in the form of imported noncapital goods. Aid substitutes for domestic savings, has no effect on the financial account, and leads to unaccounted capital flight. (JEL F35, O19)

scholarly journals The economic effect of the 2015 Refugee Crisis in Sweden: Jobs, Crimes, Prices and Voter turnout

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arvid Uddfeldt
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Economic Effect ◽  
Treated Group ◽  
Refugee Crisis ◽  
Left Wing ◽  
Allocation Process ◽  
Stable Conditions ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Right ◽  
The Impact

The civil war in Syria has culminated in a massive refugee crisis in neighboring and Europeancountries. Millions of refugees made their way to Europe between 2014 and 2015, with morethan 160 000 arriving in Sweden alone. Little is known about the impact of this influx onvoting behavior, criminality rates, labor markets, and local price levels. By using data on theSwedish municipalities, the analysis estimates the short-run consequences of the refugeeinflow. The results are found through a dynamic difference-in-difference estimator, whichcompare municipalities in Sweden who received relatively many refugees (treated) comparedto those hosting relatively few refugees (control). The quasi-randomized allocation process ofrefugees in combination with a very high variation among the different municipalitiesrefugee-intake creates stable conditions for reliable estimations through the difference-indifferenceapproach. Regarding the labor market, the findings suggest that the treated groupshosting many refugees face higher unemployment rates and simultaneously lower wagelevels. Additionally, the result indicates that the municipalities hosting more refugees facehigher crimes committed per capita, particularly regarding assault- and fraud-related crimes.Furthermore, the results stress that the treated group meet higher vote shares in thesubsequent national election in favor of the right-wing parties and decreasing support for thecenter-right, center-left, and left-wing parties. Surprisingly, the vote share of the antiimmigrationparty SD does not correlate with refugee-influx.

Local Economic Voting and the Agricultural Boom in Argentina, 2007–2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (3) ◽  
pp. 27-53 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jorge Mangonnet ◽  
María Victoria Murillo ◽  
Julia María Rubio
Keyword(s):  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Economic Voting ◽  
Marginal Effect ◽  
Spatial Econometric ◽  
Agricultural Prices ◽  
Electoral Outcomes ◽  
National Tax ◽  
Agricultural Areas ◽  
The Impact

AbstractThis article investigates the effect of local economic conditions on voting behavior by focusing on the export-oriented agricultural areas of Argentina during the commodities boom. It assesses the marginal effect of export wealth on electoral outcomes by studying the impact of soybean production, the main Argentine export product during this period. The combination of rising agricultural prices and a salient national tax on exports allows us to evaluate how wealth and tax policy shape local electoral behavior. This study relies on a spatial econometric analysis of the vote across Argentine departments for the 2007–15 period, along with qualitative evidence from interviews and a descriptive analysis of government appointments.

Banking regulation - burden or blessing?

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 548-562 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kim Abildgren
Keyword(s):  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Natural Experiment ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Balance Sheet ◽  
Banking Regulation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Savings Banks ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to explore the impact of regulation on previously unregulated banks’ balance-sheet growth using the 1880 Danish Savings Bank Act as a natural experiment. With the Act, Danish savings banks became, for the first time, subject to regulation and supervision whereas commercial banks continued as unregulated institutions. Design/methodology/approach The main elements of the Act focussed on supervision and provisions to improve information transparency. The paper estimates the impact of the Act on the balance-sheet growth of Danish savings banks using bank-level panel data and a difference-in-differences approach. Findings The paper finds no indications that the Act had a negative effect on the balance-sheet growth of savings banks compared to commercial banks in the short run. Furthermore, there are indications of a positive effect after a couple of years. This suggests that regulation is not always a burden for the regulated institutions and might even have a positive impact on their business activity. Originality/value This paper is the first study using the introduction of banking supervision and regulation in the 1800s as a natural experiment to evaluate the causal effect of regulation on the balance-sheet growth of previously unregulated financial intermediaries.

Local Elections and the Politics of Small-Scale Democracy

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Eric Oliver ◽  
Shang E. Ha ◽  
Zachary Callen
Keyword(s):  
Voter Turnout ◽  
Local Governments ◽  
Voting Behavior ◽  
Local Governance ◽  
Electoral Politics ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Local Elections ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
Personal Connections ◽  
Community Ties

Local government is the hidden leviathan of American politics: it accounts for nearly a tenth of gross domestic product, it collects nearly as much in taxes as the federal government, and its decisions have an enormous impact on Americans' daily lives. Yet political scientists have few explanations for how people vote in local elections, particularly in the smaller cities, towns, and suburbs where most Americans live. Drawing on a wide variety of data sources and case studies, this book offers the first comprehensive analysis of electoral politics in America's municipalities. Arguing that current explanations of voting behavior are ill suited for most local contests, the book puts forward a new theory that highlights the crucial differences between local, state, and national democracies. Being small in size, limited in power, and largely unbiased in distributing their resources, local governments are “managerial democracies” with a distinct style of electoral politics. Instead of hinging on the partisanship, ideology, and group appeals that define national and state elections, local elections are based on the custodial performance of civic-oriented leaders and on their personal connections to voters with similarly deep community ties. Explaining not only the dynamics of local elections, Oliver's findings also upend many long-held assumptions about community power and local governance, including the importance of voter turnout and the possibilities for grassroots political change.

Can Values of Honesty, Hard Work, Loyalty and Discipline Predict Entrepreneurial Orientation of Muslim Owner Managers?

2015 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 31 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rohani Mohd ◽  
Badrul Hisham Kamaruddin ◽  
Khulida Kirana Yahya ◽  
Elias Sanidas
Keyword(s):  
Entrepreneurial Orientation ◽  
Two Dimensions ◽  
Hard Work ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Sampling Frame ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Learning Institutions ◽  
Innovative Orientation ◽  
The Impact ◽  
True Values

The purpose of the present study is twofold: first, to investigate the true values of Muslim owner managers; second, to examine the impact of these values on entrepreneurial orientations of Muslim small-scale entrepreneurs. 850 Muslim owner managers were selected randomly using the sampling frame provided by MajlisAmanah Rakyat Malaysia (MARA). 162 completed questionnaires were collected and analyzed. For this paper only two dimensions of entrepreneurial orientations were analyzed: proactive orientation and innovative orientation. Interestingly, the findings revealed that Muslim businessmen/women are honest, loyal, disciplined and hard working. Loyalty and honesty are positively related to proactive orientation, while discipline and hard-work are positively related to innovative orientation. The findings provide implications for existing relevant theories, policy makers, practitioners and learning institutions. 

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

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