Effects of age, period, and cohort on stroke mortality among the Lithuanian urban population during the 24-year follow-up period

Open Medicine ◽  
2008 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 315-321
Author(s):  
Regina Rėklaitienė ◽  
Marius Noreika ◽  
Abdonas Tamošiūnas ◽  
Dalia Virvičiūtė ◽  
Diana Šopagienė
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Urban Population ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Stroke Mortality ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
European Standard Population

AbstractThe main purpose of this paper was to assess the effects of age, period, and cohort on stroke mortality among the urban Lithuanian population. Routine stroke mortality data among the Lithuanian urban population aged 25–64 years (1041 men and 724 women) between 1980 and 2004 were obtained from the official Kaunas region mortality register and classified by codes 430–438 and 160–169 in the 9th and 10th revisions of the International Classifications of Diseases (ICD), respectively. Mortality rates per 100,000 persons for men and women were age-adjusted using the age distribution of the European Standard Population. Goodness of fit of the Poisson regression models was evaluated using the Pearson and Freeman-Tukey residuals. During the study period, mortality rates decreased from 46.8 to 33.0 per 100,000 for men, and from 20.2 to 18.1 per 100,000 for women (average annual decrease of −1.3%, p<0.1 for men, and −1.6%, p<0.03 for women). An age effect was present in both sexes. The definite upward period effect was observed from 1990 to 1994 both among men and women, and was followed by a sharp fall during 2000–2004. Cohort and period effects have contained relevant information that partially explained trends in stroke mortality among 25–64 year-olds in the Lithuanian urban population. The Poisson regression models could be applied for the examination and explanation of the different causes of the population mortality.

scholarly journals Stroke Mortality Trends in the Population of Klaipėda From 1994 to 2008

Medicina ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 47 (9) ◽  
pp. 512 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henrikas Kazlauskas ◽  
Nijolė Raškauskienė ◽  
Rima Radžiuvienė ◽  
Vinsas Janušonis
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
World Population ◽  
Stroke Mortality ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Elderly Men ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Specific Mortality ◽  
Permanent Residents

The objective of the study was to evaluate the trends in stroke mortality in the population of Klaipėda aged 35–79 years from 1994 to 2008. Material and Methods. Mortality data on all permanent residents of Klaipėda aged 35–79 years who died from stroke in 1994–2008 were gathered for the study. All death certificates of permanent residents of Klaipėda aged 35–79 years who died during 1994–2008 were examined in this study. The International Classification of Diseases (ICD-9 codes 430–436, and ICD-10 codes I60–I64) was used. Sex-specific mortality rates were standardized according to the Segi’s world population; all the mortality rates were calculated per 100 000 population per year. Trends in stroke mortality were estimated using log-linear regression models. Sex-specific mortality rates and trends were calculated for 3 age groups (35–79, 35–64, and 65–79 years). Results. During the entire study period (1994–2008), a marked decline in stroke mortality with a clear slowdown after 2002 was observed. The average annual percent changes in mortality rates for men and women aged 35–79 years were –4.6% (P=0.041) and –6.5% (P=0.002), respectively. From 1994 to 2002, the stroke mortality rate decreased consistently among both Klaipėda men and women aged 35–64 years (20.4% per year, P=0.002, and 14.7% per year, P=0.006, respectively) and in the elderly population aged 65–79 years (13.8% per year, P=0.005; and 12% per year, P=0.019). During 2003–2008, stroke mortality increased by 16.3% per year in middle-aged men (35–64 years), whereas among women (aged 35–64 and 65–79 years) and elderly men (aged 65–79 years), the age-adjusted mortality rate remained relatively unchanged. Conclusions. Among both men and women, the mortality rates from stroke sharply declined between 1994 and 2008 with a clear slowdown in the decline after 2002. Stroke mortality increased significantly among middle-aged men from 2003, while it remained without significant changes among women of the same age and both elderly men and women.

scholarly journals Urban and rural stroke mortality rates in China between 1988 and 2013: An age-period-cohort analysis

2017 ◽  
Vol 45 (2) ◽  
pp. 680-690 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingjing Li ◽  
Boyang Li ◽  
Fengfan Zhang ◽  
Yang Sun
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Analysis ◽  
Cumulative Risk ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Period Effect ◽  
Stroke Mortality ◽  
Health Statistics ◽  
Rural Regions ◽  
Period Effects

Objective To evaluate effects attributable to age, time period and birth cohort, on stroke mortality data from urban and rural regions in China between 1988 and 2013. Methods Mortality data were obtained from the Chinese Health Statistics Annual Report (1987–2001) and Chinese Health Statistics Yearbooks (2003–2014). Population data were obtained from population censuses (i.e. 1982, 1990, 2000 and 2010). Data were analysed using an age-period-cohort (APC) model and intrinsic estimation (IE) method. Results The age effect suggested that all older residents had higher stroke mortality risk than younger residents. Period effect showed that compared with figures for 1988, stroke mortality in 2013 was 1.8 times higher for urban regions and 2.4 times higher for rural regions. After controlling for age and period effects, cohorts born before the Chinese economic reform had a steady decline in stroke mortality. However, mortality rates increased and fluctuated in post-reform cohorts. Conclusions This APC-IE analysis identified a modest period effect with large age and cohort contributions to both the overall mortality and the disparity between urban and rural stroke mortality. Identifying early life and cumulative risk factors for stroke, improving equality in stroke prevention and care are needed to reduce the stroke mortality in China.

Trends in Melanoma Mortality in the Population Groups of South Africa

Dermatology ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 235 (5) ◽  
pp. 396-399 ◽  
Author(s):  
Caradee Yael Wright ◽  
Thandi Kapwata ◽  
Elvira Singh ◽  
Adele C. Green ◽  
Peter Baade ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Population Group ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
African Countries ◽  
South Africans ◽  
Awareness Campaigns ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Join Point

The incidence of cutaneous melanoma (CM) is increasing in countries around the world. However, little is known about melanoma trends in African countries by population group. We studied CM mortality in South Africa from 1997 to 2014 to partly address this knowledge gap. Unit record mortality data for all South Africans who died from CM (n = 8,537) were obtained from Statistics South Africa. Join-point regression models were used to assess whether there was a statistically significant change in the direction and/or magnitude of the annual trends in CM mortality. A significant increasing trend of 11% per year was observed in age-adjusted mortality rates in men between 2000 and 2005 (p < 0.01), rising from 2 to 3 per 100,000. There was also a statistically significant increase of 180% per year among White South Africans from 1997 to 1999 (p < 0.05) and of 3% from 1999 to 2014 (p < 0.01). These results may be used to inform CM awareness campaigns and will motivate efforts to improve the collection and analysis of relevant statistics regarding the present burden of CM in South Africa.

scholarly journals Long-Term Trends in Unintentional Fall Mortality in China: A Population-Based Age-Period-Cohort Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhenkun Wang ◽  
Youzhen Hu ◽  
Fang Peng
Keyword(s):  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Major Public Health Problem ◽  
Age Group ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Unintentional Falls

Background: Unintentional falls seriously threaten the life and health of people in China. This study aimed to assess the long-term trends of mortality from unintentional falls in China and to examine the age-, period-, and cohort-specific effects behind them.Methods: This population-based multiyear cross-sectional study of Chinese people aged 0–84 years was a secondary analysis of the mortality data of fall injuries from 1990 to 2019, derived from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Age-standardized mortality rates of unintentional falls by year, sex, and age group were used as the main outcomes and were analyzed within the age-period-cohort framework.Results: Although the crude mortality rates of unintentional falls for men and women showed a significant upward trend, the age-standardized mortality rates for both sexes only increased slightly. The net drift of unintentional fall mortality was 0.13% (95% CI, −0.04 to 0.3%) per year for men and −0.71% (95% CI, −0.96 to −0.46%) per year for women. The local drift values for both sexes increased with age group. Significant age, cohort, and period effects were found behind the mortality trends of the unintentional falls for both sexes in China.Conclusions: Unintentional falls are still a major public health problem that disproportionately threatens the lives of men and women in China. Efforts should be put in place urgently to prevent the growing number of fall-related mortality for men over 40 years old and women over 70 years old. Gains observed in the recent period, relative risks (RRs), and cohort RRs may be related to improved healthcare and better education.

Mortality predictions for Ireland, 2001–2015: cancers of the breast, ovary, and cervix and corpus uteri

2006 ◽  
Vol 16 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
P. O'LORCAIN ◽  
H. Comber
Keyword(s):  
Regression Models ◽  
Death Certificate ◽  
Uterine Cancer ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Female Population ◽  
Corpus Uteri ◽  
Uterine Cancers ◽  
Log Linear

Linear and log-linear Poisson regression models of Irish breast, ovarian, and cervical and corpus uterine cancer mortality data for the years 1953–2000 were used to predict European age standardized mortality rates (EASMRs) per 100,000 person years and numbers of deaths for the period 2001–2015. Rates for the whole population and for those under 65 are expected to fall from their current levels for breast and corpus uterine cancers but not for ovarian and cervical uterine cancers. EASMRs for postmenopausal women aged between 55 and 69 years are predicted to fall for breast, ovarian, and cervical and corpus uterine cancers. The continuing expansion of the Irish female population is the primary reason why the numbers of deaths arising from breast, ovarian, and cervical uterine cancer are predicted to increase in all of the above age groups. It is not exactly clear why the numbers of corpus uterine cancer deaths are expected to continue to decline, but it may be a matter of improvement in overall death-certificate coding or their diagnoses as cervical cancer deaths.

scholarly journals Interpreting Poisson Regression Models in Dental Caries Studies

2018 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 339-345 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alex Man Him Chau ◽  
Edward Chin Man Lo ◽  
May Chun Mei Wong ◽  
Chun Hung Chu
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Goodness Of Fit ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
Model Fitting ◽  
Population Group ◽  
Basic Knowledge ◽  
Caries Epidemiology ◽  
Oral Epidemiology ◽  
Epidemiology Studies

Oral epidemiology involves studying and investigating the distribution and determinants of dental-related diseases in a specified population group to inform decisions in the management of health problems. In oral epidemiology studies, the hypothesis is typically followed by a cogent study design and data collection. Appropriate statistical analysis is essential to demonstrate the scientific association between the independent factors and the target variable. Analysis also helps to develop and build a statistical model. Poisson regression and its extensions have gained more attention in caries epidemiology than other working models such as logistic regression. This review discusses the fundamental principles and basic knowledge of Poisson regression models. It also introduces the use of a robust variance estimator with a focus on the “robust” interpretation of the model. In addition, extensions of regression models, including the zero-inflated model, hurdle model, and negative binomial model, and their interpretation in caries studies are reviewed. Principles of model fitting, including goodness-of-fit measures, are also discussed. Clinicians and researchers should pay attention to the statistical context of the models used and interpret the models to improve the oral and general health of the communities in which they live.

scholarly journals Forecasting Hungarian mortality rates using the Lee-Carter method

2007 ◽  
Vol 57 (1) ◽  
pp. 21-34 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Baran ◽  
J. Gáll ◽  
M. Ispány ◽  
G. Pap
Keyword(s):  
Mortality Rates ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
Good Prediction ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Carter Model

A modified version of the popular Lee-Carter method (Lee-Carter 1992) is applied to forecast mortality rates in Hungary for the period 2004–2040 on the basis of mortality data between 1949 and 2003 both for men and women. Another case is also considered based on a restricted data set corresponding to the period 1989–2003. The model fitted to the data of the period 1949–2003 forecasts increasing mortality rates for men between ages 45 and 55, pointing out that the Lee-Carter method is hardly applicable for countries where mortality rates exhibit trends as peculiar as in Hungary. However, models fitted to the data for the last 15 years both for men and women forecast decreasing trends similarly to the case of countries where the method was successfully applied. Hence one gets a better fit in this way, however, further concerns suggest that the Lee-Carter model, which is celebrated and widely used in actuarial practice, does not necessarily give sufficiently good prediction.

On goodness‐of‐fit measures for Poisson regression models

2020 ◽  
Vol 62 (3) ◽  
pp. 340-366
Author(s):  
Takeshi Kurosawa ◽  
Francis K.C. Hui ◽  
A.H. Welsh ◽  
Kousuke Shinmura ◽  
Nobuoki Eshima
Keyword(s):  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Goodness Of Fit
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