scholarly journals A Dynamic Analysis of the Relationship among Human Development, Exports and Economic Growth in Pakistan.

2009 ◽  
Vol 48 (4II) ◽  
pp. 885-920 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Afzal ◽  
A. Rauf Butt ◽  
Mr. Hafeez ur Rehman ◽  
Ishrat Begum
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Human Development ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

This study investigates the econometrically empirical evidence of both the short-run and long-run interrelationships among human development, exports and economic growth in an ARDL framework for Pakistan. This study also examines causal linkages among the said variables by applying the Augmented Granger Causality test of Toda-Yamamoto (1995). By using data on Pakistan’s real GDP, real exports and Human Development Index (HDI) for the period 1970-71 to 2008-09, three models have been estimated. The results show cointegration between economic growth, physical capital, real exports and human development when human development is taken as dependent variables. Furthermore, unidirectional Granger causality running from real GDP to real exports has been found in Bivariate, Trivariate and Tetravariate causality framework. The inclusion of HDI as a measure of human development reduces the physical capital share in real GDP whereas it improves the robustness of the regression model. Real GDP seems to provide resources to improve human development in only the long-run while human capital accumulation does not seem to accelerate real GDP both in the short-run and the long-run. The empirical results of the study do not support ‘export-led growth hypothesis’ and human capital-based endogenous growth theory in case of Pakistan, however, it does support ‘growth-driven exports hypothesis’ in case of Pakistan. JEL classification: O11 Keywords: Human Development, Exports, Economic Growth, ARDL, Causality

scholarly journals TRADE OPENNESS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

2014 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 188-205 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qazi Muhammad Adnan Hye ◽  
Wee-Yeap Lau
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Rolling Window ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this study is to develop first time trade openness index and use this index to examine the link between trade openness and economic growth in case of India. This study employs a new endogenous growth model for theoretical support, auto-regressive distributive lag model and rolling window regression method in order to determine long run and short run association between trade openness and economic growth. Further granger causality test is used to determine the long run and short run causal direction. The results reveal that human capital and physical capital are positively related to economic growth in the long run. On the other hand, trade openness index negatively impacts on economic growth in the long run. The new evidence is provided by the rolling window regression results i.e. the impact of trade openness index on economic growth is not stable throughout the sample. In the short run trade openness index is positively related to economic growth. The result of granger causality test confirms the validity of trade openness-led growth and human capital-led growth hypothesis in the short run and long run.

scholarly journals Further Evidence on Export-Led Growth in the United Arab Emirates: Are Non-Oil Exports or Re-Exports the Key to Economic Growth?

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Athanasia S. Kalaitzi ◽  
Trevor W. Chamberlain
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
United Arab Emirates ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Wald Test ◽  
Model Framework ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Oil Exports ◽  
Short Run

Abstract This study investigates the relationships between exports and economic growth in the United Arab Emirates. Understanding these relationships is important for purposes of establishing appropriate growth and development policies and strategies. The study uses an augmented Cobb–Douglas production function to examine the causality between non-oil exports, re-exports and economic growth over the period 1981–2012. To investigate the existence of a long-run relationship between the variables, the study performs the Johansen cointegration test, while the direction of the short-run causality is examined by applying the Granger causality test in a vector error correction model framework. A modified Wald test in an augmented vector autoregressive model is applied in order to find the direction of the long-run causality. This research provides evidence in support of an indirect short-run uni-directional causality from economic growth to re-exports, through physical capital accumulation and imports. As for long-run causality, the results show that a bi-directional causality exists between re-exports and economic growth in the UAE.

scholarly journals The Impact of Gender-Specific Human Capital on Economic Growth: An Empirical Investigation for Turkey

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (s1) ◽  
pp. 15-30
Author(s):  
Hacer Simay Karaalp-Orhan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Arithmetic Average ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Education Indicators ◽  
The Impact

Abstract In this study, how the human capital disaggregated by gender and physical capital affects economic growth in Turkey is examined for the period of 1971–2015. By using an arithmetic average of health and education indicators as a proxy of human capital formation, an attempt was made to examine the relationship between the human capital and economic growth under the scope of gender inequality. In this context, an ARDL-bounds testing approach and the unrestricted error-correction model were used to investigate the co-integration in the long- run and short run. Further, the causality test was also conducted to identify the direction of the causality between the variables. The main finding indicates that male human capital has been the central variable affected by both economic growth and physical capital. On one hand, a significant positive relationship was found between the economic growth and physical capital and male human capital in the long-run, while on the other hand, the female human capital was associated negatively to the economic growth. There is no evidence of causality that links the female human capital to other variables. This result suggests that women are not well utilized in the Turkish economy and the country suffers from untapped potential of women.

scholarly journals Long-Run and Short-Run Relationships Between Education and Economic Growth: The Malaysian Experience

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ishak Yussof ◽  
Atif Awad Abdillah ◽  
Zulkifly Osman
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Capital Stock ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Human Capital Accumulation ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Education And Economic Growth

This paper investigates the long and short-run relationships between human capital, measured in terms of average years of schooling for people aged 15 years and older, and economic growth in Malaysia between 1970 and 2009. The data was collected from various sources, including the World Bank database, the International Labour Organization (ILO) and scholarly texts. The Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) test was utilized to examine the relationships between education and economic growth. The results of the co-integration test revealed that economic growth was absolutely exogenous and the remaining variables were endogenous in Malaysia. This fi nding suggests that the status of these variables depend on the level of economic growth, while the opposite is not true. The most interesting results were that the long-run forcing variables for human capital accumulation were capital stock, employment and economic growth. However, the causality test revealed that economic growth, employment and capital stock, not only aff ects human capital in the short-run, but in the long run as well. The causality tests performed detected two-way relationships between human capital and capital stock, and employment separately in the long run. Although economic growth is exogenous, Malaysia should still continue to invest in its human capital accumulation since it could att ract more investments and subsequently create employment opportunities within the economy.   Keywords: Education levels, education development, income, economic growth.

The relationship between financial development and economic growth in Eswatini (formerly Swaziland)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Siphe-okuhle Fakudze ◽  
Asrat Tsegaye ◽  
Kin Sibanda
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe paper examined the relationship between financial development and economic growth for the period 1996 to 2018 in Eswatini.Design/methodology/approachThe Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds test (ARDL) was employed to determine the long-run and short-run dynamics of the link between the variables of interest. The Granger causality test was also performed to establish the direction of causality between financial development and economic growth.FindingsThe ARDL results revealed that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and economic growth. The Granger causality test revealed bidirectional causality between money supply and economic growth, and unidirectional causality running from economic growth to financial development. The results highlight that economic growth exerts a positive and significant influence on financial development, validating the demand following hypothesis in Eswatini.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should formulate policies that aims to engineer more economic growth. The policies should strike a balance between deploying funds necessary to stimulate investment and enhancing productivity in order to enliven economic growth in Eswatini.Originality/valueThe study investigates the finance-growth linkage using time series analysis. It determines the long-run and short-run dynamics of this relationship and examines the Granger causality outcomes.

scholarly journals Population and Economic Growth Under Different Growth Engines

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 182-211 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto Bucci ◽  
Xavier Raurich
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Human Capital Investment ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Long Run

Abstract Using a growth model with physical capital accumulation, human capital investment and horizontal R&D activity, this paper proposes an alternative channel through which an increase in the population growth rate may yield a non-uniform (i.e., a positive, negative, or neutral) impact on the long-run growth rate of per-capita GDP, as available empirical evidence seems mostly to suggest. The proposed mechanism relies on the nature of the process of economic growth (whether it is fully or semi-endogenous), and the peculiar engine(s) driving economic growth (human capital investment, R&D activity, or both). The model also explains why in the long term the association between population growth and productivity growth may ultimately be negative when R&D is an engine of economic growth.

The Relevance of the Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis to Malaysia

2017 ◽  
pp. 188-202 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chor Foon Tang ◽  
Eu Chye Tan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Granger Causality Test ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Full Sample ◽  
Aggregated Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Disaggregated Data

This paper explored whether the tourism-led growth (TLG) hypothesis is empirically relevant to Malaysia based upon both full sample and rolling sample analyses. Data from January 1995 to December 2010 have been utilised for the purpose. Instead of relying upon aggregated data of tourist arrivals, disaggregated data of arrivals from 12 major tourism markets are relied upon for more insightful and accurate findings. The empirical results suggest that there was cointegration between Malaysia's economic growth and tourist arrivals from these tourism markets. However, the results of the full sample Granger causality test indicate that only 2 out of 12 tourism markets contributed to economic growth in the short-run. The TLG hypothesis is only supported in the long run by tourist arrivals from 10 out of the 12 tourism markets. The rolling-based Granger causality test shows that it is also these 10 markets situated mostly in developed countries that could provide a stable support for the TLG hypothesis.

Capital accumulation and growth in Hungary, 1924–2006

2011 ◽  
Vol 61 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-164 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Leeuwen ◽  
P. Földvári
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Volume Index ◽  
Growth Accounting ◽  
Simple Method ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Over Time

The objective of this paper is to analyse the role of both human and physical capital in economic growth in Hungary during the 20th century by extending the already available data on physical and human capital. Besides the standard measure for the volume of human capital, we develop a simple method to estimate the value of the human capital stock in Hungary between 1924 and 2006. While the volume index slowly grows over time, the value of human capital shows a decline during the late socialist period. Applying the value of human capital in a growth accounting analysis, we find that the Solow residual has no long-run effect on economic growth anymore.

scholarly journals Capital formation and economic growth under central planning and transition: A theoretical and empirical analysis, ca. 1920–2008

2015 ◽  
Vol 65 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Péter Földvári ◽  
Bas van Leeuwen ◽  
Dmitry Didenko
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Early Years ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
System Of National Accounts ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Physical Capital Accumulation

According to the consensus view, it was primarily physical capital accumulation that drove economic growth during the early years of state socialism. Growth models incorporating both human and physical capital accumulation led to the conclusion that a high physical/human capital ratio can cause a lower economic growth in the long run, hence offering an explanation for the failure of socialist economies. In this paper, we show theoretically and empirically that according to the logic of the socialist planner, it was optimal to achieve a higher physical to human capital ratio in socialist countries than in the West. Using a VAR analysis, we find empirical confirmation that within the Material Product System of national accounting, the relative dominance of investment in physical capital accumulation relative to human capital was indeed more efficient than under the system of national accounts.

Does female human capital contribute to economic growth in India?: an empirical investigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (11) ◽  
pp. 1506-1521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Sehrawat ◽  
A.K. Giri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of female human capital on economic growth in the Indian economy during 1970-2014. Design/methodology/approach The paper employs Ng-Perron unit root test to check the order of integration of the variables. The study also used ARDL-bounds testing approach and the unrestricted error-correction model to investigate co-integration in the long run and short run; Granger’s causality test to investigate the direction of the causality; and variance decomposition test to capture the influence of each variable on economic growth. Findings The study constructed a composite index for both male and female human capitals by taking education and health as a proxy for human capital. The empirical findings reveal that female human capital is significant and positively related to economic growth in both short run and long run, while male human capital is positive but insignificant to the economic growth; same is the case for physical capital, it implies that such investment regarding female human capital needs to be reinforced. Further, there is an evidence of a long-run causal relationship from female human capital, male human capital and physical capital to economic growth variable. The results of variance decomposition show the importance of the female human capital variable is increasing over the time and it exerts the largest influence in change in economic growth. Research limitations/implications The empirical findings suggest that the Indian economy has to pay attention equally on the development of female human capital for short-run as well as long-run growth of the economy. This implies that the policy makers should divert more expenditure for developing support for female education and health. Originality/value To the best of authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to study the relationship between female human capital and economic growth in the context of the Indian economy.

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