scholarly journals Predicting a Pandemic: testing crowd wisdom and expert forecasting amidst the novel COVID-19 outbreak

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emil O. W. Kirkegaard ◽  
Wael Taji ◽  
Arjen Gerritsen
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Educational Background ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Crowd Wisdom ◽  
Final Sample ◽  
The Future ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Individual

Taking countermeasures to protect against future events requires predicting what the future will be like. In late 2019, a novel coronavirus known as NCov-2019 emerged in Wuhan, China, and has since spread to most countries in the world. Anticipatory responses by civilians facing the crisis have included self-isolation measures, extreme stockpiling of food or medical supplies, and other forms of preparation to meet the expected crisis. However, no consensus exists as to the accuracy of civilian expectations, nor toward the relative value of different informational sources used by citizens to build these expectations (e.g. mainstream news as opposed to an educational background in virology). In the present study, we used an online survey (n = 333 in final sample) to collect individual characteristics and general knowledge regarding viruses and the novel coronavirus, in addition to their forecasts for the various outcomes expected to result from it in the near future. This will allow for the individual correlates of accurate forecasting to be known by 2021, which could prove important for assigning relative weights to forecasts for other events in the future.

scholarly journals Comparison of Psychological Stress Levels and Associated Factors Among Healthcare Workers, Frontline Workers, and the General Public During the Novel Coronavirus Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rongrong Luan ◽  
Weidan Pu ◽  
Lilei Dai ◽  
Rui Yang ◽  
Peng Wang
Keyword(s):  
Psychological Stress ◽  
General Public ◽  
Healthcare Workers ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Impact Of Event Scale ◽  
Event Scale ◽  
Frontline Workers ◽  
Occupation Group ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Objective: We aimed to conduct a comparative analysis of the psychological stress experienced by healthcare workers, frontline workers, and the general public and to assess the factors associated with psychological stress in each of these groups.Methods: We conducted an online survey targeting healthcare workers, frontline workers, and the general public. Psychological stress was assessed with the revised impact of event scale (IES-R). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses were conducted.Results: We surveyed 1,336 participants (64.6% female; mean age, 36.6). The occupation group distribution of respondents was 50.7% healthcare workers, 27.2% frontline workers, and 22.1% general public. The healthcare (23.6 ± 15.8) and frontline (23.6 ± 17.8) workers had higher IES-R scores than the general public (15.3 ± 10.6; p < 0.01). Poor health perception and perception of infection avoidance were associated with psychological stress in the healthcare and frontline workers, but not in the general public.Conclusion: Both healthcare and frontline workers are suffering elevated psychological stress, compared to the general public, and this elevated stress may be related especially to their perceptions of their own health and infection risk. Interventions addressing these factors should be developed to alleviate psychological stress in these populations, and thus reduce their risk of mental illness pathogenesis.

scholarly journals Time-conjunctive representations of future events

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stuart Babcock ◽  
Marc Howard ◽  
Joseph McGuire
Keyword(s):  
Response Time ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Correct Item ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Temporal Relationships ◽  
The Future ◽  
Memory Representations ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Probe Letter ◽  
Rule Out

It is widely accepted that people can predict the relative imminence of future events. However, it is unknown whether the timing of future events is represented using only a "strength-like" estimate or if future events are represented conjunctively with their position on a mental timeline. We examined how people judge temporal relationships among anticipated future events using the novel Judgment of Anticipated Co-Occurence (JACO) task. Participants were initially trained on a stream of letters sampled from a probabilistically repeating sequence. During test trials, the stream was interrupted with pairs of probe letters and the participants' task was to choose the probe letter they expected to appear in the stream during a lagged target window 4-6 items (4.3-8.5 seconds) in the future. Participants performed above chance as they gained experience with the task. Because the correct item was sometimes the more imminent probe letter and other times the less imminent probe letter, these results rule out the possibility that participants relied solely on thresholding a strength-like estimate of temporal imminence. Rather, these results suggest that participants held 1) temporally organized predictions of the future letters in the stream, 2) a temporal estimate of the lagged target window, and 3) some means to compare the two and evaluate their temporal alignment. Response time increased with the lag to the more imminent probe letter, suggesting that participants accessed the future sequentially in a manner that mirrors scanning processes previously proposed to operate on memory representations in the short-term judgment of recency task.

scholarly journals The Psychological Impact of COVID-19 Among Pakistani Adults in Lahore

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saima Majeed ◽  
Elizabeth Maria Schwaiger ◽  
Abia Nazim ◽  
Ivan Suneel Samuel
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Family System ◽  
Nuclear Family ◽  
Psychological Impact ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Snowball Sampling ◽  
Measurement Tools ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
Restrictive Measures ◽  
The Impact

Background: In the wake of the worldwide spread of the novel coronavirus and the resultant restrictive measures, mental health has become a crucial issue. Physical health is not the only aspect of humans that is at risk. Globally, the rates and severity of mental illness are being significantly impacted by this pandemic. Two scales have been validated to measure the impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on the levels of anxiety and obsessional thinking in clinical and non-clinical populations. The present study was designed to investigate the levels of anxiety and obsessions related to COVID-19 in the general public of Lahore, Pakistan.Materials and Methods: Data were collected via snowball sampling from May 9 to May 19. An online survey consisting of a demographic profile and two scales, Coronavirus Anxiety Scale (CAS) and Obsession with COVID-19 Scale (OCS), was sent through email, WhatsApp, and Facebook groups to adults (18 years and above) of Lahore, Pakistan.Results: A total of 240 individuals (20% men and 80% women) recorded their responses. The majority belonged to a nuclear family system (60%), and their education level ranged from high school to Ph.D. The cut-off score for probable dysfunctional coronavirus anxiety and obsession levels was not met within this sample (CAS, M = 3.24, SD = 4.21; OCS, M = 4.14, SD = 3.15), suggesting that the general population of Lahore, Pakistan is not suffering from dysfunctional anxiety or obsessions related to COVID-19. Forty-seven participants' score on OCS and 35 participants' scores on CAS were above the cut-off, i.e., ≥7 and ≥9, respectively. The results of the correlation analysis showed a significant positive relationship (**p < 0.619) between anxiety and obsessions related to COVID-19.Conclusion: One important, yet surprising, conclusion of this study is that the average adult in Lahore does not show much anxiety or obsessions related to COVID-19. Other studies around the world using these measurement tools have indicated significantly high levels of both anxiety and obsessions related to COVID-19. These findings may demonstrate the resilience of Pakistanis or perhaps the lack of understanding of the seriousness of the situation.

scholarly journals Working in the world of the pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 37 (3) ◽  
pp. 97-102
Author(s):  
Luke Tredinnick ◽  
Claire Laybats
Keyword(s):  
The Novel ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
Information Professionals ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Way

This paper compiles a series of responses from key information professionals to the novel coronavirus pandemic of 2020. Respondents were invited to answer the questions how the pandemic has impacted on their work, and how it might change the way of working in the future. Contributors to the article include Scott Brown, Steve Dale, Denise Carter, Alison Day, Hal Kirkwood and Emily Hopkins.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and the future of microfinance: evidence and insights from Pakistan

2020 ◽  
Vol 36 (Supplement_1) ◽  
pp. S138-S168 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Malik ◽  
Muhammad Meki ◽  
Jonathan Morduch ◽  
Timothy Ogden ◽  
Simon Quinn ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Household Income ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Policy Reform ◽  
Rapid Response ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Microfinance Institutions ◽  
The Future ◽  
Loan Officers ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Abstract The COVID-19 pandemic threatens lives and livelihoods, and, with that, has created immediate challenges for institutions that serve affected communities. We focus on implications for local microfinance institutions in Pakistan, a country with a mature microfinance sector, serving a large number of households. The institutions serve populations poorly-served by traditional commercial banks, helping customers invest in microenterprises, save, and maintain liquidity. We report results from ‘rapid response’ phone surveys of about 1,000 microenterprise owners, a survey of about 200 microfinance loan officers, and interviews with regulators and senior representatives of microfinance institutions. We ran these surveys starting about a week after the country went into lockdown to prevent the spread of the novel coronavirus. We find that, on average, week-on-week sales and household income both fell by about 90 per cent. Households’ primary immediate concern in early April became how to secure food. As a result, 70 per cent of the sample of current microfinance borrowers reported that they could not repay their loans; loan officers anticipated a repayment rate of just 34 per cent in April 2020. We build from the results to argue that COVID-19 represents a crisis for microfinance in low-income communities. It is also a chance to consider the future of microfinance, and we suggest insights for policy reform.

Individual difference factors related to anthropomorphic tendency

2016 ◽  
Vol 50 (5/6) ◽  
pp. 973-1002 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kate Letheren ◽  
Kerri-Ann L. Kuhn ◽  
Ian Lings ◽  
Nigel K. Ll. Pope
Keyword(s):  
Individual Difference ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Personal Connection ◽  
Experiential Thinking ◽  
Psychology Literature ◽  
The Individual

Purpose This paper aims to addresses an important gap in anthropomorphism research by examining the individual-level factors that correlate with anthropomorphic tendency. Design/methodology/approach The extant psychology, marketing and consumer psychology literature is reviewed, and eight hypotheses devised. Data from 509 online survey respondents are analysed to identify individual characteristics associated with anthropomorphic tendency. Findings The results reveal that anthropomorphic tendency varies by individual and is significantly related to personality, age, relationship status, personal connection to animals and experiential thinking. Research limitations/implications This paper extends on recent research into the individual nature of anthropomorphic tendency, once thought to be a universal trait. Given that this paper is the first of its kind, testing of further traits is merited. It is suggested that future research further examine personality, as well as other elements of individual difference, and test the role of anthropomorphic tendency in the development of processing abilities with age. Practical implications Findings show that anthropomorphic tendency may prove to be a key variable in the segmentation of markets and the design of marketing communications, and that younger, single, more creative, conscientious consumers are an appropriate target for anthropomorphic messages. The importance of personal connection to animals, as well as experiential thinking, is also highlighted. Originality/value Given the importance of anthropomorphic tendency for the processing of messages involving non-human endorsers, as well as the formation of relevant attitudes and behaviours, this paper fulfils an identified need to further understand the characteristics of those high on this tendency.

scholarly journals Augmentative and Alternative Communication Telepractice During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A National Survey of Speech-Language Pathologists

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-19
Author(s):  
Elizabeth E. Biggs ◽  
Michelle C. S. Therrien ◽  
Sarah N. Douglas ◽  
Melinda R. Snodgrass
Keyword(s):  
Augmentative And Alternative Communication ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Alternative Communication ◽  
Speech Language Pathologists ◽  
Five Dimensions ◽  
Know How ◽  
School Based ◽  
Aided Aac ◽  
Novel Coronavirus

Purpose: The novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has led to sudden, widespread use of telepractice, including providing services to children who use aided augmentative and alternative communication (AAC). This exploratory study examined speech-language pathologists' (SLPs) experiences using telepractice to provide services to children and youth aged 3–21 years who used aided AAC during the earlier months of the pandemic (May–June 2020). Method: Three hundred thirty-one SLPs responded to an online survey. Closed- and open-ended survey items were analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively and mixed at the point of interpretation to understand the experiences of SLPs related to the use of telepractice with children who use aided AAC, including how they perceived effectiveness. Results: Most SLPs were using telepractice to provide both direct and consultation/coaching services to children who used aided AAC. There was fairly wide variation in perceptions of effectiveness of both types of services, but SLPs were more likely to rate consultation/coaching services as being more effective than direct services. SLPs identified factors impacting effectiveness across five dimensions: broader factors, practice-based factors (i.e., technology, the type of services), the child, parents and family members, and professionals. School-based SLPs perceived telepractice as being less effective than non–school-based SLPs. Conclusions: The use of telepractice during the COVID-19 pandemic has unfolded quite differently for different SLPs and the children who use aided AAC that they serve. Although AAC telepractice offers promise for the future, particularly for partnering with families, further research is needed to know how to overcome challenges experienced by SLPs. Supplemental Material https://doi.org/10.23641/asha.17139434

scholarly journals Pooling of samples to optimize SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis by RT-qPCR: comparative analysis of two protocols.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabiana Volpato ◽  
Daiana Lima-Morales ◽  
Priscila Lamb Wink ◽  
Julia Willig ◽  
Fernanda de-Paris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Diagnostic Yield ◽  
Rna Extraction ◽  
Clinical Samples ◽  
The Novel ◽  
Positive Individual ◽  
Sample Pooling ◽  
Novel Coronavirus ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Pooled Samples

RT-qPCR for SARS-CoV-2 is the main diagnostic test used to identify the novel coronavirus. Several countries have used large scale SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR testing as one of the important strategies for combating the pandemic. In order to process the massive needs for coronavirus testing, the usual throughput of routine clinical laboratories has reached and often surpassed its limits and new approaches to cope with this challenge must be developed. This study has aimed to evaluate the use pool of samples as a strategy to optimize the diagnostic of SARS-CoV-2 by RT-qPCR in a general population. A total of 220 naso/orofaryngeal swab samples were collected and tested using two different protocols of sample pooling. In the first protocol (Protocol A); 10 clinical samples were pooled before RNA extraction. The second protocol (Protocol B) consisted of pooling the already extracted RNAs from 10 individual samples. Results from Protocol A were identical (100% agreement) with the individual results. However, for results from Protocol B, reduced agreement (91%) was observed in relation to results obtained by individual testing. Inconsistencies observed were related to RT-qPCR results with higher Cycle Thresholds (Ct > 32.73). Furthermore, in pools containing more than one positive individual, the Ct of the pool was equivalent to the lowest Ct among the individual results. These results provide additional evidence in favor of the clinical use of pooled samples for SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis by RT-qPCR and suggest that pooling of samples before RNA extraction is preferrable in terms of diagnostic yield.

scholarly journals Food avoidance among patients with headache

2020 ◽  
pp. 51-53
Author(s):  
Stella Boreggio Machado ◽  
Nayara Cavalcanti Ares ◽  
Claudio Scorcine ◽  
Yara Dadalti Fragoso
Keyword(s):  
Online Survey ◽  
Dietary Habits ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Trigger Factor ◽  
Alcoholic Beverages ◽  
Monthly Basis ◽  
Food Avoidance ◽  
Food And Drink ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Standard Profile

ObjectiveTo assess food and drink avoidance among patients with headache by means of an online survey.MethodsIndividuals with frequent headaches were invited to answer a Google Form questionnaire [https://form.jotformz.com/200233754863656]. The survey included sex, age and characteristics of headache. Dietary habits were assessed as the number of times the individual consumed certain foods, on a daily, weekly, or monthly basis. The participants could state up to three foods that they avoided for fear of headache attacks.Results120 complete forms were received. Alcoholic beverages were the most frequent trigger factor, reported by 26.7% of the patients. 95.5% of the participants did not consume alcohol regularly. Cheese, caffeine and fat were also recognized as potential triggers of headaches. There was no standard profile of dietary triggers and, therefore, everyone has to be personally approached in this subject.ConclusionThe online survey confirmed that individual characteristics of headache were dietary triggers in half the participants. Alcohol was the most frequently mentioned trigger, followed by cheese, fat and caffeine.

scholarly journals “Not just a hobby, but a lifestyle”: Characteristics, preferences and self-perception of individuals with different levels of involvement in birdwatching

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (7) ◽  
pp. e0255359
Author(s):  
Emilia Janeczko ◽  
Adrian Łukowski ◽  
Ernest Bielinis ◽  
Małgorzata Woźnicka ◽  
Krzysztof Janeczko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
National Park ◽  
Large City ◽  
Individual Characteristics ◽  
Self Perception ◽  
Middle Aged ◽  
Level Of Involvement ◽  
Nature Tourism ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual ◽  
Different Levels

Birdwatching is one of the most sustainable types of nature-based tourism and, at the same time, a form of recreation that is developing very dynamically. Birdwatching is attracting more and more people, not only professionals, but also amateurs from many countries. Birdwatching research is still relatively embryonic, especially when compared to nature tourism or wildlife tourism. Our main aim was to determine preferences and opinions of birdwatchers visiting the largest national park in Poland, in relation to their different levels of involvement. The data were collected in 2018 from a survey of a sample of 357 Polish and foreign birdwatchers. Results showed that birdwatcher respondents were predominantly male, middle-aged, and living in a large city. An important tool described in this article is a new scale that assesses the level of involvement of individual people engaged in birdwatching activity. This scale corresponds well with the individual characteristics of birdwatchers. Most birdwatchers defined their birdwatching activity as a permanent rather than a temporary hobby and therefore considered it to be more of a lifestyle than a hobby. Engagement in birdwatching activity increased with age and frequency of trips. The two most important reasons for birding were ‘to be close to nature’ and ‘fascination with birds’. It has been proven that the development of birdwatching in the future will require a developed infrastructure enabling interaction with the objects of observation.

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