scholarly journals The accuracy of FiveThirtyEight's 2018 midterm election predictions: an exploratory analysis

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinkinson Smith
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Exploratory Analysis ◽  
Actual Performance ◽  
Moderate Evidence ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
Midterm Elections ◽  
Two Measures ◽  
Margin Of Victory

This study compares the predictions made by FiveThirtyEight's "Deluxe" forecasts in the 2018 United States midterm elections to the elections' actual results. It does so using two measures of polling error: difference between actual and predicted percent of the vote received by the Democratic candidate, and difference between actual and predicted margin of victory, in each race. Results indicate that the predictions were generally accurate, and that to the extent that they were not, this inaccuracy showed moderate evidence of being systematically skewed towards the Democratic candidate, overestimating their actual performance.

scholarly journals The hidden societal cost of antibiotic resistance per antibiotic prescribed in the United States: an exploratory analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Constantinos I. Michaelidis ◽  
Michael J. Fine ◽  
Chyongchiou Jeng Lin ◽  
Jeffrey A. Linder ◽  
Mary Patricia Nowalk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Antibiotic Resistance ◽  
The United States ◽  
Societal Cost ◽  
Exploratory Analysis

An Exploratory Analysis of Federal Litigation in the United States Challenging Asset Forfeiture

2010 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 50-64
Author(s):  
Shaun L. Gabbidon ◽  
George E. Higgins ◽  
Favian Martin ◽  
Matthew Nelson ◽  
Jimmy Brown
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Exploratory Analysis ◽  
Asset Forfeiture

U.S.-Israeli Policies: Reading the Signs for '77

Worldview ◽  
1976 ◽  
Vol 19 (9) ◽  
pp. 4-9
Author(s):  
Mark A. Bruzonsky
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Near East ◽  
The United States ◽  
Recent Issue ◽  
The Real ◽  
The Road ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
On The Road ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Sense Of Urgency

The real crunch for Israel will probably come during 1977 if Ford is elected—it will be delayed by only a few months if a Democratic candidate wins.” So writes Wolf Blitzer, editor of the “Jewish lobby's” Washington publication Near East Report, in a recent issue of the Jerusalem Post.With the same sense of urgency Abba Eban insists that “Time is of the essence, and unhappily for us, time is running out. We ought to grasp the central issues now and involve the United States in resolving them.” He and a growing number of his colleagues fear that should Israel not choose to “cooperate” with the U.S., the Americans might run right over Israel on the road to Geneva and some form of imposed settlement.

Will the Republicans Retake the House in 2010?

2010 ◽  
Vol 43 (04) ◽  
pp. 639-641 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alfred G. Cuzán
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
House Of Representatives ◽  
Statistical Models ◽  
National Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Similar Model ◽  
Majority Party ◽  
Successful Model ◽  
Midterm Elections

Historically, statistical models for forecasting the outcome of midterm elections to the United States House of Representatives have not been particularly successful (Jones and Cuzán 2006). However, in what may have been a breakthrough, most models correctly predicted that the Democrats would re-emerge as the majority party in 2006 (Cuzán 2007). One successful model was estimated using 46 elections, beginning with 1914 (only the second time that 435 representatives, the present number, were elected). The model was relatively simple, making use of national-level variables only (Cuzán and Bundrick 2006). Using a similar model, I generated a forecast for the 2010 midterm election.

When Immigrants Are Not Migrants: Counting Arrivals of the Foreign Born Using the U.S. Census

1998 ◽  
Vol 32 (1) ◽  
pp. 127-144 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Ellis ◽  
Richard Wright
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Foreign Born ◽  
Skill Levels ◽  
Migration Status ◽  
Recent Immigrant ◽  
Two Measures ◽  
Definition Of ◽  
The U.S ◽  
The Way

This paper compares characteristics of recent immigrant arrivals in the United States using two measures from the decennial U.S. census: the came-to-stay question and the migration question. We show that a little under 30 percent of immigrants who reported they came to stay between 1985–1990 on the 1990 U.S. Census Public Use Micro Sample were resident in the United States on April 1, 1985. A similar analysis of the 1980 censue reveals that 22 percent of immigrants who reported they came to stay between 1975–1980 lived in the United States on April 1, 1975. Thus among recent arrivals, defined as those who reported they came to stay in the quinquennium preceding the census, a large number were resident in the United States five years before the census date. Furthermore, the proportion of recent arrivals present in the United States five years before the census increased between 1975–1980 and 1985–1990. We show that the profile of recent arrivals is sensitive to their migration status. Generally, in both the 1975–1980 and 1985–1990 cohorts, those resident in the United States five years before the census have significantly less schooling and lower incomes than those who were abroad. Accordingly, we argue that estimates of the skill levels and hourly wages of recent arrivals to the United States vary with the way arrival is measured. Researchers who rely on Public Use samples of the U.S. census for their data should be aware that the year of entry question implies a broader definition of arrival than the migration question. We caution that immigration researchers should consider the idea of arrival more carefully to help distinguish newcomers from the resident foreign born.

The United States and Alternative Energies since 1980: Technological Fix or Regime Change?

2014 ◽  
Vol 31 (5) ◽  
pp. 103-125 ◽  
Author(s):  
David E Nye
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
International Perspective ◽  
Carbon Intensity ◽  
Low Carbon ◽  
Actual Performance ◽  
Policy Failure ◽  
Technological Momentum ◽  
Alternative Energies ◽  
Kaya Identity

Awareness of global warming has been widespread for two decades, yet the American political system has been slow to respond. This essay examines, first, political explanations for policy failure, focusing at the federal level and outlining both short-term partisan and structural explanations for the stalemate. The second section surveys previous energy regimes and the transitions between them, and policy failure is explained by the logic of Thomas Hughes’s ‘technological momentum’. The third section moves to an international perspective, using the Kaya Identity and its distinction between energy intensity and carbon intensity to understand in policy terms ‘technological fixes’ vs. low-carbon alternatives. The final section reframes US energy policy failure and asks: (1) Why, between 1980 and 1999, was America’s actual performance in slowing CO2emissions better than its politics would seem capable of delivering? (2) How and why has the United States since c. 2007 managed to reduce per capita CO2emissions?

EU global regulatory influence faces rising challenges

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Economic Recovery ◽  
Political Values ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Recovery Plan ◽  
Democratic Candidate ◽  
Regulatory Influence ◽  
The Eu

Significance However, the economic and geopolitical environment which facilitated its global regulatory success is changing. Impacts The EU’s unprecedented economic recovery plan should strengthen unity and give it confidence to act stronger on the global stage. Political values will play an increasingly prominent role in shaping the bloc’s relationship with countries such as China. The election of Democratic candidate Joe Biden will not guarantee closer regulatory ties between the United States and the EU.

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