Do local sex ratios approximate subjective partner markets? Evidence from the German Family Panel
A growing body of evidence suggests that imbalanced local sex ratios are correlated with social consequences, including the pattern and timing of union formation, fertility and relationship stability. Scholars have argued that these findings can be understood as a result of imbalances in the bargaining power the respective sex holds in male- or female-skewed regions, but they remain vague on the underlying mechanisms. Specifically, the literature implicitly considers individual partner market experiences to be a function of local sex ratios. However, empirical evidence on the correspondence between subjective partner availability and local sex ratios remains scarce. This study addresses this gap by linking individual-level German longitudinal survey data (pairfam) with local sex ratios from population data for different entities (states, counties, and municipalities). Using multilevel regression models, this paper analyses the correlations between a subjective partner market indicator and a variety of local sex ratio measures. Moreover, an event history analysis explored how either indicator relates transitions into relationships. Results revealed that none of the local sex ratio measures, including those for narrow age ranges and/or lower level administrative entities, significantly predicted whether individuals predominantly met individuals of their own sex. Event history models yielded significant correlations between this subjective partner market indicator and relationship formation for both genders, substantiating the validity of the subjective indicator. For local sex ratios, results revealed an additional association between local sex ratios and female relationship formation when the sex ratios were adjusted for age hypergamy. Male relationship formation was uncorrelated with any local sex ratio. Both evolutionary and social scientific reasoning on the consequences of sex ratio imbalances rest on assumptions of subjective partner availability that may not be adequately represented by local sex ratios. Future research should be careful not to equate local sex ratios and conscious partner market experiences.