scholarly journals Model Deteksi Krisis Indonesia dengan Indikator Suku Bunga Simpanan Riil

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 93-97
Author(s):  
Rina Safitri ◽  
Sugiyanto Sugiyanto ◽  
Sri Sulistijowati Handajani
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Currency Exchange Rate ◽  
Drastic Increase ◽  
The Impact

The financial crisis is a condition where a country's finances experience a disruption which is characterized by a drastic increase in the inflation rate, a weakening currency exchange rate, and a decrease in other economic activities. Indonesia experienced financial crises in 1997 and 1998 which resulted in a collapse of financial conditions and national stability. Therefore, it is necessary to have a model to find out the crisis, so that efforts to recover the impact of the crisis can be done as early as possible from the model. This study aims to apply the Markov Switching Error Correction Model to detect a crisis. Based on the indicator of real deposit interest rates it can be concluded that the MS-ECM can explain the crisis that occurred in mid-1997 and late 2005

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Transaksi Uang Elektronik terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 56-63
Author(s):  
Ruth Damayanti
Keyword(s):  
Error Correction ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Advanced Technology ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Electronic Money ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
The Impact

Increasingly advanced technology encourages people to make transactions using electronic money (e-money). Nowadays, more Indonesian people use electronic money in their dealings, which is proven by the increasing volume of electronic money transactions from year to year. Electronic cash is chosed because it is more practical in making transactions with traders. The rising use of electronic money can affect the money supply, which can affect the inflation rate. Several studies have stated the effect of electronic money on inflation. This study aims to determine the impact of the variable volume and nominal value of electronic money transactions (e-money) on the inflation rate in Indonesia from January 2016 to December 2020. The data used in this study are secondary data with the type of monthly time series taken from Bank Indonesia, Kementerian Perdagangan, and BPS (Badan Pusat Statistik). The analysis technique used is the ECM (Error Correction Model). The Error Correction Model in this study aims to identify long-term and short-term relationships that occur because of the cointegration between research variables and the relationship between variables that are not stationary. This study indicates that in the long term, the variables volume of e-money transactions and money supply (M2) have a significant effect on the inflation variable. In contrast, other macroeconomic variables (BI rate and nominal value of e-money transactions) has no significant impact. Meanwhile, the short-term regression model shows no variables that have a substantial effect on the inflation variable.

scholarly journals Determinants of Islamic Banks Distress in Gulf Council Countries (GCC)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bakhita Hamdow Gad Elkreem Braima
Keyword(s):  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Share Price ◽  
Simple Random Sample ◽  
Islamic Banks ◽  
Z Score ◽  
Internal Factors ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rate ◽  
Rating Model

The study aims to investigate the relation between Z score and internal factors represented in Camel rating system ratios. To discover the best ratios that can be used as indicator. Also it aims to investigate the impact of external economic factors GDP, Inflation rate and currency exchange rate on the Islamic banks soundness.it follows quantitative method, simple random sample of five full-fledge Islamic banks in Gulf Council Countries is selected, parametric statistical analysis is used, especially linear multiple regression tool. The results of linear regression model showing that, there are some ratios affect positively and significantly on Z score,those are, Total equities to T. Asset; Total loan to Total Assets; market share price and Earning per share.; moreover the GDP and inflation rate do not effect on the Islamic banks soundness. Implication of the results in Islamic banks they should increase their Z score through increasing some ratios such as liabilities to Assets ratio, loan to Assets ratio, share market price, most important implication of the study result is a recommendation for amendment of Camel rating model. Further works are recommended with more statistical techniques. The relation between camel dimensions ratios and bankometer model should be conducted.

scholarly journals The Use of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Method in Investigating The Impact of Interest Rate on Foreign Direct Investment in Yemen for the Period 1990-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (123) ◽  
pp. 145-157
Author(s):  
Saif Sallam Alhakimi
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Trade Openness ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact

 Foreign direct investment has seen increasing interest worldwide, especially in developing economies. However, statistics have shown that Yemen received fluctuating FDI inflows during the period under study. Against this background, this research seeks to determine the relationship and impact of interest rates on FDI flows. The study also found other determinants that greatly affected FDI inflows in Yemen for the period 1990-2018. Study data collected from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund databases. It also ensured that the time series were made balanced and interconnected, and then the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag method used in the analysis. The results showed that the interest rates and inflation rate harmed FDI flows and, therefore, could not be used for policymaking purposes. The research also discovered that GDP growth and trade openness are the main determinants of foreign direct investment in Yemen. Trade openness policies should be encouraged, and GDP growth facilitated if the economy is to achieve long-term FDI flows. Purpose –The purpose of the paper is to discover the impact of interest rate on foreign direct investment with a combination of the exchange rate, inflation, gross domestic product, and trade openness. Design/methodology/approach – The paper implements the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)-Bounds testing approach to analyze maintaining the time series properties in terms of stationarity. Findings – The results indicate that there is a long-run equilibrium between the Foreign Direct Investment and the explanatory variables. Furthermore, the significant factors influencing, positively, FDI in Yemen are Growth domestic product, Exchange rate, and Trade openness. In contrast, both the Interest rate and Inflation rate have a substantial negative impact on Foreign Direct Investment. Practical implications – Policymakers in Yemen advised reconsidering many of the general state policies, including investment policies, financial and administrative governance, and monetary policy that focuses on maintaining an adequate interest rate and reduce the rate of inflation. Originality/value – As for the case of Yemen, this the first study empirically explores the impact of interest rate and the foreign direct investment using the Auto Regressive Distributed Lag method aiming for more reliable results.

Monetary requirements for financial development

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (2) ◽  
pp. 349-368
Author(s):  
K.V. Krinichanskii ◽  
N.E. Annenskaya
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Substantial Growth ◽  
Bank Deposits ◽  
Developed Stock Markets ◽  
Relationship Of ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Subject. The study investigates the relationship of financial development and monetary factors, which may be represented with inflation indicators, money aggregate M2 (measured by GDP), differential of interest rates on loans and funds raised by banks, etc. Objectives. The study outlines a theoretical perimeter for analyzing monetary requirements of financial development. Based on empirical data, we show the extent to which the requirements are influential. Methods. To verify the hypothesis, we classify items under study. The relationship of variables is reviewed through regression analysis. The study embraces 21 countries with developed stock markets and 17 emerging markets, covering the time span from 1960 through 2016. Results. We discovered the negative regular relationship between the inflation rate and three financial development metrics, such as bank deposits to GDP, banks assets to GDP, domestic loan for the private sector to GDP. Conclusions and Relevance. Monetary conditions seem to be significant for financial development. Therefore, the economic policy and strategies for the analysis of phenomena should be amended, since they treat financial development as a substantial growth driver. The relationship spotlights possible lines of the policy for enhancing the quality of financial development. Furthermore, the findings can be used to refine approaches to evaluating the impact of financial development on economic growth.

scholarly journals An Investigation of the Determinants of Savings and Investment in Nigeria

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 1 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adelakun O. Johnson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Positive Relationship ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Use Of Time ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

<p>This study examined the relationship between savings, investment and economic growth. A corollary of the work is the determination of which of the inputs of production contributes more to economic growth in Nigeria. The study makes use of time series data spanning twenty-nine years using error correction model. The result shows a positive relationship between savings, investment and economic growth in Nigeria. Of the determinants of savings considered in the study, inflation rate contributes negatively to saving, while interest rate positively affect saving. All these confirm economic theory. The striking feature of the study however is the confirmation of the impact of labour on economic growth, which according to the study far outweighs the contribution of capital.</p>

scholarly journals Impact of Gross Domestic Product on Small & Medium Enterprises

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 27-39
Author(s):  
Hafiz Mohammad Rizwan Rashid ◽  
Karim Nooruddin Arbani
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Secondary Sources ◽  
Inferential Analysis ◽  
Small Medium Enterprises ◽  
Medium Enterprises ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

This study intends to explore the impact of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on the Performance of Small & Medium Enterprises (SME) in Pakistan. As the Interest and Inflation rate are high, this research has been taken to find the relation between the changes in inflation and interest and how they impact the performance of SMEs. Although there are several studies associated with the DV (Small & Medium enterprises) but the paper is unique as it is (based upon data from Secondary sources of Pakistan where there is a severe lacking of such studies. Data has been collected through the Mono method to indicate the effect of GDP on the performance of SMEs). OCDC countries governments are facing the challenges of low growth, weak trade, weak investment and rising high inequality that’s why the researcher will investigate that the impact of GDP on the performance of SMEs is significant in high interest and inflation rate. Therefore this study is one of the epistemology / pervasive in nature as the study is potent to increase the knowledge in the area of business as well as foreign direct investors. However, this study was supplemented with some limitations as the data collected from the Mono method as an archival strategy from Pakistan. This study would also help the business sector manage their interest rates and attract foreign direct investors to invest more to increase the Gross Domestic Product of Pakistan. The sample size for the study is the past 15 years of data from secondary sources in Pakistan and the researcher will use the CFA and SAM approach using E-Views software that has been used for the purpose of data analysis and the major reason for the application of the software is the theory-building approach associated for finding the relationships between GDP and the Performance of SMEs. Although the paper is supported by descriptive due to quantitative in nature & as well as inferential analysis in order to make findings of the study potent and reliable enough. The use of the software indicated that there is a relationship between major IV (Gross Domestic Product) and DV of the study (Performance of Small & Medium Enterprises) and thus the result is prevalent in identifying the relationship between the variables GDP (IV) & Performance of SME (DV).

scholarly journals Analisis Pengaruh Suku Bunga dan Nilai Kurs Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi di Indonesia

2018 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 202-209
Author(s):  
Muslihul Umam ◽  
Isabela Isabela
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Error Correction Model ◽  
Rate Of Change ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
The Exchange Rate

Abstrak Inflasi merupakan salah satu indikator perekonomian yang penting, laju perubahannya selalu diupayakan rendah dan stabil. Inflasi yang tinggi dan tidak stabil merupakan cerminan akan kecenderungan naiknya tingkat harga barang dan jasa secara umum dan terus menerus sehingga akan melemahkan daya beli masyrakat yang nantinya akan berdampak pada penurunan pendapatan nasional. Oleh karena itu diharapkan adanya pengendalian laju inflasi yang akhir-akhir ini menunjukkan grafik yang meningkat. Penelitian ini membahas tentang “Analisis Pengaruh Suku bunga dan Nilai Kurs Terhadap Tingkat Inflasi Di Indonesia Periode 1985-2014”, bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh suku bunga, dan nilai kurs terhadap tingkat inflasi di Indonesia dengan menggunakan error correction model (ECM). Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa suku bunga berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat inflasi di Indonesia, nilai kurs RP/US Dollar berpengaruh positif dan signifikan terhadap tingkat inflasi di Indonesia.   Keywords: tingkat inflasi, suku bunga, dan nilai kurs.   Abstract Inflation is one of the important economic indicators, the rate of change is always besought low and stable. High and unstable inflation is a reflection of the tendency to increase the level of prices of goods and services in general and continuously so that it will weaken the purchasing power of the people which will reduce national incomelater. Therefore, it is expected to control the inflation rate, which lately shows an increasing graph. This study discusses "The analysis of the Influence of Interest Rates and Exchange Rates to the Inflation Rate in Indonesia for the Period 1985-2014", aims to determine the effect of interest rates, and the exchange rate on the inflation rate in Indonesia using the error correction model (ECM). The results of this study indicate that interest rates have a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia, the exchange rate of Rupiah / US dollar has a positive and significant effect on the inflation rate in Indonesia.   Keywords: Inflation Rate, Interest Rates, and Exchange Rates.

scholarly journals Impact of Non-Performing Loans on Credit Growth in the Banking Industry in Tanzania: 2009 – 2018

2021 ◽  
pp. 10-18
Author(s):  
John P. Lihawa ◽  
Deus D. Ngaruko
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Private Sector ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Credit Growth ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study adopted descriptive statistics and multiple regression analysis in investigating the impact of Non-Performing Loans (NPL) on credit growth to private sector in Tanzania, apart from NPL. The study also investigated the influence of interest rates, inflation rates and GDP on credit advancement to private sector in Tanzania. Using multiple linear regression analysis the study found that both NPL and interest rates have negative impact on the credit growth to private sector in Tanzania, with coefficient values of -0.323 and -0.263 for NPL and interest rate respectively. Furthermore, the study also found that Inflation rate and GDP growth rate have positive impact on the credit growth to private sector in Tanzania with coefficients of 0.247and 0.156 for inflation rate and GDP growth rate respectively. The study found that NPL has a significant negative impact on the credit growth by commercial bank to private sector in Tanzania. These results suggest that the central bank should continue to closely monitor and control the level of NPL in the economy and confine it below the threshold of 5% as stipulated by the BOT and IMF. The study also recommends that commercial banks should ensure that a thorough credit risk assessment is conducted when advancing loans to private sector.

scholarly journals Impact of Bank Capital and Monetary policy on Lending Behavior of USA Banking Sector Before and After Global Financial Crises

2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 171-181
Author(s):  
Amna Kausar ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Real Estate ◽  
Capital Structure ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Crises ◽  
Industrial Sector ◽  
Bank Capital ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Lending Behavior ◽  
The Impact

This study investigates the impact of bank capital, capital structure and monetary policy on the lending behavior of USA banks before and after global financial crises. For this purpose, sample data is collected from the annual reports of top ten banks of USA from 2001 to 2017. A panel unit root is applied to check the stationarity of variables. In order to explain the impact of bank capital, capital structure and monetary policy on lending behavior of USA banks, fixed effect and random effect model have been used. The sample data has been divided into two sets. First data set is taken from 2001 to 2008 before financial crises. Second data set is taken from 2009 to 2017 after financial crises and all above tests have been applied on these data sets. Furthermore, in order to measure the lending behavior three types of lending have been selected lending to consumers, lending to real estate and lending to commercial & industrial sector of USA banks. In order to get the better picture of lending behavior of USA banks before and after financial crises: paired sample T-test has been applied on the data of lending before and after financial crises. Results of paired sample T-test showed there is significant difference in lending to consumers, lending to commercial & industrial sector and lending to real estate before and after financial crises of USA banks because of the implementation of Basel III. So, we accept the alternative hypothesis for our second research question. Findings suggested that impact of bank capital, capital structure and monetary policy has significant impact on the lending behavior before and after the global financial crises with the positive change of sixteen percent in R-squared value. So, we accept the alternative hypothesis for our first research question. The results of coefficients shows that before financial crises (2001 to 2008) discounted interest rates have more significant impact on the lending made to consumers but after the global financial crises (2009 to 2017) discounted interest rates, capital structure and tier 1 capital ratio have more significant impact on the loan made to consumers. The results of coefficients shows that before the financial crises (2001 to 2008) discounted interest rates have more significant impact on the loan made to commercial and industrial sector but after the global financial crises (2009 to 2017) discounted interest rates, capital structure and tier 1 capital ratio have more significant impact on the loan made to commercial and industrial sector. The results of coefficients shows that before financial crises (2001 to 2008) discounted interest rates have more significant impact on the loan made to real estate but after the global financial crises (2009 to 2017) discounted interest rates and capital structure have more significant impact on the loan made to real estate. Findings of our study are aligned with Swamy (2015), who investigated the impact of bank capital on lending spreads and found that increase in capital ratio of banks would also increase their lending spreads. Our results are also matched with the findings of (Kosak et al., 2015), those concluded that capital structure significantly affect the loan growth of banks. Our results are also aligned with Chami & Cosimano (2010), they found that change in monetary policy due to Basel Accord would lead to a change in bank capital and bank loans.

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