scholarly journals Assessment of runoff characteristics changes of the left bank tributaries of the Upper Dniester under warming conditions

2021 ◽  
pp. 55-65
Author(s):  
S. V. Melnyk ◽  
N. S. Loboda
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Phase ◽  
Positive Phase ◽  
Left Bank ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Runoff Formation ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Maximum Runoff

The inflow of water from the left-bank tributaries of the Upper Dniester is an important component of the runoff formation for the whole river. The study of changes in their water content in the context of global warming is quite urgent and agrees with the provisions of the strategic programme for the Dniester Basin for 2021-2035 aimed at ‘climate change mitigation’ and ‘promoting the principles of sustainable water management’. The paper's objective is to carry out a research into the changes in climatic factors and runoff characteristics that occurred on the left bank of the Upper Dniester in the early 21st century. The research was performed on the basis of hydrometeorological data for the period of 1945-2018. The main research methods include the regression analysis and the method of differential integral curves. It is found that, within the area under study, there is an increase in average annual air temperatures against the background of constant or insignificantly increasing amounts of annual precipitation, thus creating unsatisfactory conditions for runoff formation. It is established that, during the months of cold period, there is an increase in air temperature and that since 1989 the frequency of cases, when the temperature crosses the range of positive values, keeps increasing. 1989 is a turning point in the chronological course of average annual air temperatures; a positive phase of long-term fluctuations starts since that year. With regard to annual precipitation fluctuations from the mid-60s of the last century up to 2013, a positive phase was also identified; within this phase there was a short period of insufficient moisture (1981-1996). It was found that the response of runoff characteristics to climate change was not the same. Maximum runoff during the spring flood is the most sensitive to global warming, since such warming has worsened the conditions for accumulation of water reserves in the snow cover. The transition of maximum runoff fluctuations to the low-water phase took place in 1981. The average long-term decrease in the maximum water flow rates during the spring flood for the period of 1950-2018 amounts to -16.9%. Unlike maximum runoff, the characteristics of the annual and minimum runoff changed gradually during the winter and summer low-water periods and the final transition to the low-water phase of fluctuations occurred only in 2009-2011. Certain inertia of changes in the water resources of Podillya rivers under the warming conditions is caused by the subsurface component making a high contribution to the annual runoff formation (60%). Significant portion of the groundwater supply ‘mitigated’ the effects of surface runoff loss during spring floods. The research allowed establishing the occurrence of statistically significant negative trends in the annual and minimum runoff fluctuations since 1998. If continue to preserve, the identified climate change trends will decrease the inflow of water from the Podillya rivers to the main Dniester River.

REGIONAL METHOD FOR DETERMINATION THE MAXIMUM RUNOFF OF THE SPRING FLOOD IN SUB-BASIN THE DESNA RIVER UNDER THE CLIMATE CHANGE

2020 ◽  
pp. 15-25
Author(s):  
V.A Ovcharuk ◽  
S.V. Ivashchenko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Methodological Approach ◽  
Statistical Processing ◽  
Water Runoff ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Operator Model ◽  
Calculation Technique ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Maximum Runoff

The results of development of the regional methodology for calculating the maximum water runoff of the rare probability of exceedance for the rivers of the sub-basin the Desna River under the conditions of modern climate change are presented. As basic for calculation authors used a modern modified version of the operator model of runoff formation developed at the Odessa State Environmental University to determine the characteristics of spring flood, which allows taking into account the influence of climate change on the calculated characteristics of the maximal runoff modules. The advantage of the proposed method is that it is based on the theory of channel isochrones, which allows describing the natural process of formation of runoff in the form of the operator “slope tide – channel runoff”. To substantiate the basic calculation parameters of the author’s methodology, was used the data of direct observations on the hydrological characteristics of the maximum waterrunoff of the spring flood (water discharges, depth of runoff and duration of the influx) and meteorological factors of its formation (maximum snow supply and precipitation during spring flood) for the period since its beginning to 2015, including. In the process of standardization of the main components of the proposed methodology, methods of statistical processing, spatial generalization, numerical problem solving and mathematical modeling were used. To account for possible climate change, the original author’s scientific and methodological approach is proposed, which is to determine “climate corrections” on the basis of modern baseline data – maximum of the water snow supply and precipitation during spring flood and runoff coefficients of the water, taking into account their dependence from long-term annual air temperatures that are projected according to the developed climate models and scenarios. The modified version of the operator model is proposed to be used as a regional calculation technique for determining maximum runoff modules of the rare probability of exceeding for ungauged rivers in the Desna sub-basin during the passage of the spring flood.

scholarly journals Sediment Mining

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Homayoun Fathollahzadeh ◽  
Fabio Kaczala ◽  
Amit Bhatnagar ◽  
William Hogland
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Contaminated Sediments ◽  
Management Options ◽  
Metals Recovery ◽  
Environmental Footprints ◽  
Valuable Metals ◽  
Short And Long Term ◽  
Near Future

The main dilemma of contaminated sediments has been the proper management with reduced environmental footprints. Furthermore, by considering the fact that global warming and climate change may complicate the choice of management options, finding appropriate solutions become extremely critical. In the present work, mining of contaminated sediments to recover valuable constituents such as metals and nutrients is proposed as sustainable strategy, both through enhancing resilience of ecosystem and remediation. Contaminated sediments in the Oskarshamn harbor, southeast of Sweden were collected and analyzed through a modified sequential extraction in order to evaluate the feasibility of metals recovery. The results have shown that among different metals present in the sediments, Cu and Pb can be initially considered as economically feasible to recover. The shifting in the concept of dredging and further remediation of contaminated sediments towards sediment mining and recover of valuable metals can be considered in the near future as a sustainable strategy to tackle contaminated harbor/ports areas. However, it must be highlighted that short and long-term environmental impacts related to such activities should be addressed.

The «rainfall-runoff» system and its long-term fluctuations in the Siverskyi Donets River Basin (Ukraine)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanna Bolbot ◽  
Vasyl Grebin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
River Runoff ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Annual Precipitation ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Current Period

<p>The current patterns estimation of the water regime under climate change is one of the most urgent tasks in Ukraine and the world. Such changes are determined by fluctuations in the main climatic characteristics - precipitation and air temperature, which are defined the value of evaporation. These parameters influence on the annual runoff distribution and long-term runoff fluctuations. In particular, the annual precipitation redistribution is reflected in the corresponding changes in the river runoff.<br>The assessment of the current state and nature of changes in precipitation and river runoff of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin was made by comparing the current period (1991-2018) with the period of the climatological normal (1961-1990).<br>In general, for this area, it was defined the close relationship between the amount of precipitation and the annual runoff. Against the background of insignificant (about 1%) increase of annual precipitation in recent decades, it was revealed their redistribution by seasons and separate months. There is a decrease in precipitation in the cold period (November-February). This causes (along with other factors) a decrease in the amount of snow and, accordingly, the spring flood runoff. There are frequent cases of unexpressed spring floods of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin. The runoff during March-April (the period of spring flood within the Ukrainian part of the basin) decreased by almost a third.<br>The increase of precipitation during May-June causes a corresponding (insignificant) increase in runoff in these months. The shift of the maximum monthly amount of precipitation from May (for the period 1961-1990) to June (in the current period) is observed.<br>There is a certain threat to water supply in the region due to the shift in the minimum monthly amount of precipitation in the warm period from October to August. Compared with October, there is a higher air temperature and, accordingly, higher evaporation in August, which reduces the runoff. Such a situation is solved by rational water resources management of the basin. The possibility of replenishing water resources in the basin through the transfer runoff from the Dnieper (Dnieper-Siverskyi Donets channel) and the annual runoff redistribution in the reservoir system causes some increase in the river runoff of summer months in recent decades. This is also contributed by the activities of the river basin management structures, which control the maintenance water users' of minimum ecological flow downstream the water intakes and hydraulic structures in the rivers of the basin.<br>Therefore, in the period of current climate change, the annual runoff distribution of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin has undergone significant changes, which is related to the annual precipitation redistribution and anthropogenic load on the basin.</p>

scholarly journals Assessment of impact of climate change on water resources: a long term analysis of the Great Lakes of North America

2008 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 239-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. McBean ◽  
H. Motiee
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Water Resources ◽  
North America ◽  
Great Lakes ◽  
Great Lakes Basin ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. In the threshold of the appearance of global warming from theory to reality, extensive research has focused on predicting the impact of potential climate change on water resources using results from Global Circulation Models (GCMs). This research carries this further by statistical analyses of long term meteorological and hydrological data. Seventy years of historical trends in precipitation, temperature, and streamflows in the Great Lakes of North America are developed using long term regression analyses and Mann-Kendall statistics. The results generated by the two statistical procedures are in agreement and demonstrate that many of these variables are experiencing statistically significant increases over a seven-decade period. The trend lines of streamflows in the three rivers of St. Clair, Niagara and St. Lawrence, and precipitation levels over four of the five Great Lakes, show statistically significant increases in flows and precipitation. Further, precipitation rates as predicted using fitted regression lines are compared with scenarios from GCMs and demonstrate similar forecast predictions for Lake Superior. Trend projections from historical data are higher than GCM predictions for Lakes Michigan/Huron. Significant variability in predictions, as developed from alternative GCMs, is noted. Given the general agreement as derived from very different procedures, predictions extrapolated from historical trends and from GCMs, there is evidence that hydrologic changes particularly for the precipitation in the Great Lakes Basin may be demonstrating influences arising from global warming and climate change.

Climate change in the semiarid prairie of southwestern Saskatchewan: Temperature, precipitation, wind, and incoming solar energy

2000 ◽  
Vol 80 (2) ◽  
pp. 375-385 ◽  
Author(s):  
H. W. Cutforth
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Solar Energy ◽  
Weather Data ◽  
Study Region ◽  
Rainfall Events ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
Key Words Climate Change

Long-term weather data were analyzed to study annual as well as seasonal climate change within an approximately 15 000-km2 area in the semiarid prairie near Swift Current, SK. The climate of the study region has changed over the past 50 yr. Annually, average maximum (Tmx) and minimum (Tmn) air temperatures have increased – rainfall amounts and the number of rainfall events (≥0.5 mm) have increased since the late 1960s-early 1970s; incoming solar energy has decreased, and wind speed has decreased since the early 1970s. Seasonally, for January through April (JFMA), both Tmx and Tmn have increased, the number of rainfall events has increased since the early 1970s, snowfall amounts and the number of snowfall events (≥0.5 cm) have decreased; the number of precipitation events (≥0.5 mm) has decreased, incoming solar energy has decreased, and wind speed has decreased since the early 1970s. For May through August (MJJA), Tmn has increased, incoming solar energy has decreased, and wind speed has decreased since the mid-1970s. For September through December (SOND), the number of rainfall events has increased since the early 1970s and wind speed has decreased. Since 1950, JFMA has become drier and, relative to JFMA, SOND has become wetter. Generally, JFMA has experienced the largest change in climate, whereas SOND has experienced the least climate change. Precipitation amounts and events were negatively correlated with increasing Tmx, suggesting a future decrease in precipitation amounts for southwestern Saskatchewan if global warming continues. Key words: Climate change, semiarid prairie, temperature, precipitation, wind, solar energy

Systematic scenario process to support analysis of long-term emissions scenarios and transformation pathways for the IPCC WG3 6th Assessment Report

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward A. Byers ◽  
Keywan Riahi ◽  
Elmar Kriegler ◽  
Volker Krey ◽  
Roberto Schaeffer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Open Source Software ◽  
Integrated Assessment ◽  
Assessment Report ◽  
Systematic Assessment ◽  
Climate Assessment ◽  
Transformation Pathways ◽  
Emissions Scenarios

<p>The assessment of long-term greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and societal transformation pathways is a key component of the IPCC Working Group 3 (WG3) on the Mitigation of Climate Change. A large scientific community, typically using integrated assessment models and econometric frameworks, supports this assessment in understanding both near-term actions and long-term policy responses and goals related to mitigating global warming. WG3 must systematically assess hundreds of scenarios from the literature to gain an in-depth understanding of long-term emissions pathways, across all sectors, leading to various levels of global warming. Systematic assessment and understanding the climate outcomes of each emissions scenario, requires coordinated processes which have developed over consecutive IPCC assessments. Here, we give an overview of the processes involved in the systematic assessment of long-term mitigation pathways as used in recent IPCC Assessments<sup>1</sup> and being further developed for the IPCC 6<sup>th</sup> Assessment Report (AR6). The presentation will explain how modelling teams can submit scenarios to AR6 and invite feedback to the process.</p><p>Following discussions amongst IPCC Lead Authors to define the scope of scenarios desired and variables requested, a call for scenarios to support AR6 was launched in September 2019. Modelling teams have registered and submitted scenarios through Autumn 2019 using a new and secure online submission portal, from which authorised Lead Authors can interrogate the scenarios interactively.</p><p>This analysis is underpinned by the open-source software pyam, a Python package specifically designed for analysis and visualisation of integrated assessment scenarios<sup>2</sup>. Submitted scenarios are automatically checked for errors and processed using a new climate assessment pipeline. The climate assessment involves infilling and harmonization<sup>3</sup> of emissions data, then the scenarios are processed through Simple Climate Models, using the OpenSCM framework<sup>4</sup>, to give probabilistic climate implications for each scenario – atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing and global mean temperature. The climate assessment accounts for updated climate sensitivity estimates from CMIP6 and WG1,s scenarios are categorized according to climate outcomes and distinguish between timing and levels of net-negative emissions, emissions peak and temperature overshoot. Scenarios are also categorized by other indicators, for consistent use across WG3 chapters, such as: population and GDP; Primary and Final energy use; and shares of renewables, bioenergy and fossil fuels.</p><p>The automated framework also facilitates bolt-on analyses, such as estimating the population impacted by biophysical climate impacts<sup>5</sup>, and estimates of avoided damages with the social cost of carbon<sup>6</sup>.</p><p>Upon publication of the WG3 AR6 report, all scenario data used in the WG3 Assessment will be publicly available on a Scenario Explorer, an online tool for interrogating and visualizing the data that supports the report. In combination, this framework brings new levels of consistency, transparency and reproducibility to the assessment of scenarios in IPCC WG3 and will be a key resource for the climate community in understanding the main drivers of different transformation pathways.</p><ol><li>Huppmman et al 2018, Nature Climate Change</li> <li>Gidden and Huppmann, 2019, Journal of Open Source Software</li> <li>Gidden et al 2018 Environ. Model. Softw</li> <li>Nicholls et al 2020</li> <li>Byers et al 2018 Environmental Research Letters</li> <li>Ricke et al 2018 Nature Climate Change</li> </ol>

Estimation of the annual runoff distribution of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin in the period of current climate change

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hanna Bolbot ◽  
Vasyl Grebin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Low Flow ◽  
Left Bank ◽  
Spring Flood ◽  
Current Period ◽  
Current Climate ◽  
Annual Runoff Distribution ◽  
The Right

<p>The most urgent tasks facing hydrologists of Ukraine and the world include identifying patterns of rivers hydrological regime against the background of global warming, and assessing these changes. Changes in the annual runoff distribution under climate change impact require separate investigation of anthropogenically altered catchments, such as the Siverskyi Donets River Basin. Siverskyi Donets is the largest river in Eastern Ukraine and the main source of water supply for Kharkiv, Luhansk and Donetsk regions.</p><p>The annual runoff distribution of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin was evaluated by two periods: to the beginning of pronounced climatic changes and the current period. The research is proposed for three water year types: wet year, average year and dry year. The Siverskyi Donets Basin is a complicated water body with peculiar physico-geographical conditions, because of that annual runoff distribution is somewhat different for the left-bank tributaries, right-bank tributaries and, in fact, the Siverskyi Donets River itself.</p><p>It is found that the most runoff of the wet year for both periods is in the spring months. The current period is characterized by a much smaller runoff of spring flood (from the volume of annual runoff) than in the previous period. The annual runoff distribution is offset. Some differences can be observed between the left and right tributaries. For the left-bank tributaries, which has less anthropogenic load, climate change has led to a significant increase of winter and summer-autumn low flow periods. On the right tributaries of the Siverskyi Donets, which are flowing within the industrial part of the Donbass, the low flow period has not changed, or even decreased. Such situation is due to the decrease of mine water disposal because of the industrial production decrease in the region.</p><p>The largest part of the annual runoff in the average year falls on February and March. In the current period, the spring flood has decreased, but the summer and autumn low flow period has increased. The left-bank tributaries runoff during the winter low period is decrease. Instead, the runoff attributable to the autumn and winter low period has increased for the right-bank tributaries and the Siverskyi Donets itself.</p><p>Analyzing the runoff distribution of dry year, we can conclude that the most wet is February. At present, in dry years, spring flood practically are not allocated from the hydrograph; the baseflow months runoff significantly increased. The volume of winter runoff of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin is increased. Actually, for the Siverskyi Donets River the runoff of the summer period has increased and the runoff of the winter and autumn periods has decreased at the present stage.</p><p>The annual runoff distribution of the Siverskyi Donets River Basin in the current climate change has undergone significant changes: the spring flood has decreased and the summer-autumn low flow has increased.</p>

scholarly journals Climate Change and Building Energy Consumption: A Review of the Impact of Weather Parameters Influenced by Climate Change on Household Heating and Cooling Demands of Buildings

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Hassan Bazazzadeh ◽  
Adam Nadolny ◽  
Seyedeh Sara Hashemi Safaei
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
Building Sector ◽  
Total Energy Consumption ◽  
Heating And Cooling ◽  
Urban Energy ◽  
The Impact

The growth of urban population as the result of economic and industrial development has changed our place of living from a prosperous place to where the resources are carelessly consumed. On the other hand, long-term climate change, i.e. global warming, has had adverse impact on our resources. Certain resources are on the verge of depletion as the consequence of climate change and inconsiderate consumption of resources, unless serious measures are implemented immediately. The building sector, whose share in the municipal energy consumption is considerably high, is a key player that may successfully solve the problem. This paper aims to study the effects of climate change on the energy consumption of buildings and analyze its magnitude to increase the awareness of how construction can reduce the overall global energy consumption. A descriptive-analytical method has been applied to analyze valid models of energy consumption according to different scenarios and to interpret the conditions underlying current and future energy consumption of buildings. The results clearly show that the energy consumption in the building sector increasingly depends on the cooling demand. With that being said, we can expect the reduction of overall energy consumption of buildings in regions with high heating demands, whereas rising the energy consumption in buildings is expected in regions with high cooling demand. To conclude, the long-term climate change (e.g. global warming) underlies the increased energy consumption for the cooling demand whose share in total energy consumption of buildings much outweighs the heating demand. Therefore, to conserve our resources, urban energy planning and management should focus on working up a proper framework of guidelines on how to mitigate the cooling loads in the energy consumption patterns of buildings.

scholarly journals Assessment of changes of agro-climatic conditions for cultivation of millet in the southern regions of Ukraine resulted from climate change

2017 ◽  
pp. 93-101
Author(s):  
N.V. Danilova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Food Security ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Adaptation To Climate Change ◽  
Global Food Security ◽  
Climatic Scenarios ◽  
Weather Changes ◽  
Global Food

The signals of global warming are now being observed throughout the world. Data of hydrometeorological centres show a significant increase of temperature in many regions accompanied by intense frequency of dry periods. Some substantial and direct effects of climate change may be already noticed at present time. Over the next several decades they will be observed in agriculture. Increase of temperature and reduction of precipitation volumes will probably lead to decrease the level of yield. These changes can significantly affect the global food security. Ukraine is known for its fertile soil and agricultural products, so it has a huge agricultural potential, contributing, in fact, to the global food security. However, the observed weather changes, increase of average temperature and uneven distribution of rainfalls can result in sharp transformation of most of agricultural and climatic zones of Ukraine. According to international processes there is an urgent need for improvement of adaptation to climate change of some branches of national economy of Ukraine, including of agriculture. Expanding the range of types of millet used in agricultural production is an economically feasible process that should be implemented in view of significant climate changes resulting in global warming which is widely discussed in scientific literature. Rapid introduction in crop shifts of the millet that is able to withstand recurring periodic droughts, especially in the southern regions, is one of the ways allowing to overcome the consequences of such extreme conditions. Conditions of the southern regions are favourable for millet crop. Millet is one of the most drought-resistant and heat-resistant crops that can sustain heat injuries and seizures and this is very important for arid areas during dry years, when other crops significantly reduce the level of yield. We studied changes of agro-climatic resources and agro-climatic conditions for formation of millet productivity for various periods of time. The analysis of climate change trend was performed through comparing of data as per climatic scenarios A2 and A1B and of average long-term characteristics of climatic and agro-climatic indicators. The comparative description of millet productivity under the conditions of climate change as per average long-term data (1986-2005) and as per scenarios A2 and A1B of climate change (2011-2030 and 2031-2050) was also performed.

scholarly journals Not all biodiversity rich spots are climate refugia

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (24) ◽  
pp. 6567-6578
Author(s):  
Ádám T. Kocsis ◽  
Qianshuo Zhao ◽  
Mark J. Costello ◽  
Wolfgang Kiessling
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Warming ◽  
Global Scale ◽  
Absolute Temperature ◽  
Elevated Risk ◽  
Anthropogenic Climate Change ◽  
Range Shifts ◽  
Future Warming ◽  
Almost All

Abstract. Anthropogenic climate change is increasingly threatening biodiversity on a global scale. Rich spots of biodiversity, regions with exceptionally high endemism and/or number of species, are a top priority for nature conservation. Terrestrial studies have hypothesized that rich spots occur in places where long-term climate change was dampened relative to other regions. Here we tested whether biodiversity rich spots are likely to provide refugia for organisms during anthropogenic climate change. We assessed the spatial distribution of both historic (absolute temperature change and climate change velocities) and projected climate change in terrestrial, freshwater, and marine rich spots. Our analyses confirm the general consensus that global warming will impact almost all rich spots of all three realms and suggest that their characteristic biota is expected to witness similar forcing to other areas, including range shifts and elevated risk of extinction. Marine rich spots seem to be particularly sensitive to global warming: they have warmed more, have higher climate velocities, and are projected to experience higher future warming than non-rich-spot areas. However, our results also suggest that terrestrial and freshwater rich spots will be somewhat less affected than other areas. These findings emphasize the urgency of protecting a comprehensive and representative network of biodiversity-rich areas that accommodate species range shifts under climate change.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document