scholarly journals Dynamic Risk Assessment of the Overseas Oil and Gas Investment Environment in the Big Data Era

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xuqiang Duan ◽  
Xu Zhao ◽  
Jianye Liu ◽  
Shuquan Zhang ◽  
Dongkun Luo

Our research aims to analyze how the uncertainties and risks of the overseas oil & gas investment environment change over time and reveal the specific occurrence probabilities of risk on different levels. In the process of long-drawn overseas oil & gas investment that can last for 30 years or longer, it is difficult for investment decision-makers to grasp the occurrence probabilities and trends of some specific risks accurately and in a timely manner. The overseas risk assessment system has made great progress; however, it has remained elusive due to the challenge of too many complex and interweaved factors. With the advent of big data and artificial intelligence, more precise and specific risk evaluations can be conducted. Our research selects 25 indicators from six dimensions and applies a Cloud parameter Bayesian network algorithm to dynamically assess the oil and gas overseas investment risk of 10 countries. The results reveal how risk dynamics have changed over the past two decades. Our research may serve as a reference in future overseas oil & gas investment risk decision-making, and is also significant to outbound investing, engineering, and service projects. The proper use of risk assessment results can be conducive to potential investors who may invest in potential countries in the future.

2014 ◽  
Vol 919-921 ◽  
pp. 500-506
Author(s):  
Fei Li ◽  
Guang Zhang

As the leading of oil and gas exploration and development, oil-gas drilling operations with high investment, high technology, and other industries interchange and perennial wild characteristics, there are various HSE risks during operation. Constructing HSE risk assessment system of oil-gas drilling operations, using AHP to construct indicators were analyzed and compared, and calculate the index weight. Then build fuzzy evaluation matrix based on expert evaluation method, get fuzzy evaluation result is "high risk". Finally, from four aspects (people, object, environment, and management) proposed HSE control measures.


2015 ◽  
Vol 55 (2) ◽  
pp. 434
Author(s):  
Matt Guthridge ◽  
Jason Miller

In the past decade, Australia has enjoyed significant investment in its LNG, gas and oil projects, with the combined value of projects at the publicly announced stage totalling A$197 billion. The cost of developing new LNG, gas and oil projects has escalated in the past 10 years, making Australia less competitive with locations such as North America and East Africa. The higher costs mean that many proposed projects, especially greenfield developments, will not reach a final investment decision. In this constrained investment environment, it is important for oil and gas companies to execute strategies that earn a strong return on the capital they employ. More than 200 Australian and Asian energy and resources executives were asked to rate their company’s strategic execution capability; this revealed that oil and gas companies that have strategically-aligned operating models earn higher returns on capital employed (ROCE). It was found that while 79% of respondents believe their organisations have the correct strategy in place, only 55% believe their organisation is executing their strategy well now. The research revealed that highly aligned oil and gas organisations are three times more likely to be executing successfully than their less aligned peers. Overall, the results imply that top teams who clearly align behind a strategy and successfully translate its intent throughout their organisations make better use of their invested capital. The level of strategic alignment is a key question for both oil and gas investors and company executives.


2013 ◽  
Vol 347-350 ◽  
pp. 1018-1021
Author(s):  
Hong Xia Jin ◽  
He Ping Yao ◽  
Jie Yu

With the rapidly deteriorating of ecological environment and depletion of resources, construction investment of eco-materials industry is gradually increasing , so the investment risk assessment has become a hot research problem at present. In this paper, a new investment risk assessment system for eco-materials industry is presented, which combines rough set approach and support vector machine (SVM). It is different from traditional statistical methods. We can get reduced information table by rough set, which implies that the number of index and qualitative variables is reduced with no information loss by rough set approach. And then, this reduced information is used to develop classification rules, and SVM is trained to infer appropriate parameters. The result of the positive research indicated that this system is very valid for investment risk assessment of eco-materials industry and it will have a good application prospect in this area.


2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nima Khakzad

Abstract. Exponential growth of oil and gas facilities in wildlands from one side and an anticipated increase of global warming from the other have exposed such facilities to an ever-increasing risk of wildfires. Extensive oilsands operations in Canadian wildlands especially in the Province of Alberta along with the recent massive wildfires in the province requires the development of quantitative risk assessment (QRA) methodologies which are presently lacking in the context of wildfire-related technological accidents. The present study is an attempt to integrate Canadian online wildfire information systems with current QRA techniques in a dynamic risk assessment framework for wildfire-prone process plants. The developed framework can easily be customized to other process plants potentially exposed to wildfires worldwide provided that the required wildfire information is available.


2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (8) ◽  
pp. 47-54
Author(s):  
A. Ya. GAFUROVA ◽  
◽  
L. V. GUSAROVA ◽  
R. I. GANIEVA ◽  
◽  
...  

In the current economic conditions, special attention is paid to risk assessment when planning and forecasting the activities of oil and gas enterprises. The article determines the need to assess the risks of the investment project "Introduction of a unit for cleaning associated petroleum gas (APG) from hydrogen sulfide" at the facilities of JSC "SMP-Neftegaz", and also offers an algorithm for a comprehensive assessment. A comprehensive project risk assessment system will allow identifying inherent risks and uncertainties at each stage of the project, and assessing possible damage as a result of project implementation.


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