scholarly journals Mobile Money Use: The Impact of Macroeconomic Policy and Regulation

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 51
Author(s):  
Lorna Katusiime
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Innovation ◽  
Macroeconomic Policy ◽  
Mobile Money ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This paper examines the effects of macroeconomic policy and regulatory environment on mobile money usage. Specifically, we develop an autoregressive distributed lag model to investigate the effect of key macroeconomic variables and mobile money tax on mobile money usage in Uganda. Using monthly data spanning the period March 2009 to September 2020, we find that in the short run, mobile money usage is positively affected by inflation while financial innovation, exchange rate, interest rates and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage in Uganda. In the long run, mobile money usage is positively affected by economic activity, inflation and the COVID-19 pandemic crisis while mobile money customer balances, interest rate, exchange rate, financial innovation and mobile money tax negatively affect mobile money usage.

scholarly journals EVIDENCE OF AN ASYMMETRIC IMPACT OF THE DEVALUATION OF CURRENCY ON INFLATION:

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 101-103
Author(s):  
Ahmed Balarabe Musa
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Non Linear ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
The Impact

The research is aimed at evaluating the existence of asymmetry or otherwise of the impact of devaluation of currency on inflation in Malaysia for the period 1970 – 2017. Non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (NARDL) was used as the evaluation econometric tool of the research. The findings of the study reveal that devaluation of currency has an inflationary impact in both short run and long run. Whereas, revaluation of currency does not have any impact neither in the short run nor in the long run. This confirms the upward flexibility of the impact of the increases in the changes in the exchange rate on inflation at the same time reaffirms its rigidity downward.

scholarly journals EXCHANGE RATE AND PERFORMANCE OF THE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET IN KENYA

2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. 88-100
Author(s):  
Charles Gitiya Njoroge ◽  
Willy Muturi ◽  
Oluoch Oluoch
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Optimal Solution ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Residential Property ◽  
Property Market ◽  
Solution Vector ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

The purpose of the study was to establish the effect of exchange rate on the performance of the residential property market in Kenya. The study used secondary data that was accumulated using secondary data collection sheet from first quarter of 2005 to fourth quarter of 2018. The study conducted several test statistics and diagnostic tests in order to achieve the most optimal solution. Vector error correction model and auto-regressive distributed lag model were employed to test the hypothesis in the short run and long run respectively. The results found out that exchange rate had a negative effect on performance of residential properties in Kenya in both the short run and positive effect in long run. The study has narrowed down the research gap brought about by the conflicting emprical, theoretical and conceptual literature with regard to the effect of exchange rate on performance of residential property market in Kenya. Key Words: Exchange Rate, Performance, Residential Property

Exchange Rate Volatility and Tourism Demand in India: Unraveling the Asymmetric Relationship

2019 ◽  
Vol 59 (7) ◽  
pp. 1282-1297 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chandan Sharma ◽  
Debdatta Pal
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Tourism Demand ◽  
Asymmetric Effect ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model

This study explores the asymmetric effect of exchange rate volatility on tourism demand in India from January 2006 to April 2018. Tourism demand is captured from a twin perspective—quantity and value. While quantity is represented by foreign tourist arrival in India, earnings from foreign tourists are used to represent value. The study is unique from a methodological point of view as it makes the first ever application of the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model of Shin, Yu, and Greenwood-Nimmo (2014), in the tourism demand literature to capture nonlinearity simultaneously in the short- as well as long-run. Results of our analysis show that tourism demand in India responds asymmetrically to both nominal and real exchange rate volatility. Also, the long-run effects of exchange rate uncertainty are shown to be more damaging than the short-run effects. Our findings are fairly robust to alternative specifications.

scholarly journals Determinants of VMT in Urban Areas:A Panel Study of 87 U.S. Urban Areas 1982-2009

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Starr McMullen ◽  
Nathan Eckstein
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Panel Study ◽  
Geographic Region ◽  
Fuel Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact

This paper uses econometric techniques to examine the determinants of vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in a panel study using data from a cross section of 87 U.S. urban areas over the period 1982-2009. We use standard OLS regression as well as two-stage least squares techniques to examine the impact of factors such as urban density, lane-miles, per capita income, real fuel cost, transit mileage, and various industry mix variables on per capita VMT. We use a distributed lag model to estimate long-run elasticities and find that the long-run price elasticity of demand for per capita VMT is approximately five times larger than in the short run. Preliminary empirical results show the per capita demand for VMT in urban areas is positively and significantly impacted by lane miles, personal income, and the percent of employment in the construction and public sectors. Fuel price and transit use and the percent of employment in manufacturing, retail, and wholesale sectors are all found to be statistically significant and negatively related to VMT per capita. After correcting for endogeneity, urban population density exerts a negative, but not always statistically significant, impact on per capita VMT. Finally, per capita VMT is found to differ significantly by geographic region, being higher the more western and the larger the population size of an urban area.

Investigating the Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility, Inflation and Economic Output on International Trade of India

2020 ◽  
Vol 68 (2) ◽  
pp. 207-226
Author(s):  
Aastha Arora ◽  
Sarika Rakhyani
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Exchange Rate Volatility ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Economic Output ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Trade Of Services ◽  
The Impact

Four models have been constructed separately for exports of goods, imports of goods, exports of services and imports of services to explore the impact of exchange rate volatility, inflation and economic output on India’s foreign trade. AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test run on monthly data over the period of 2011–2020 reports that in the long run, growth in production positively impacts the trade in goods and services. Rise in level of prices negatively impacts the exports of goods. In the short run, a rise in volatility brings a decline in the imports of goods but in the long run, it has a positive impact on the exports of goods. Volatile exchange rate has no impact on trade in services. An increase in inflation in the short run leads to a rise in the imports of goods but brings a decline in the trade of services.

The Impact of Interest Rate on Exchange Rate Within ASEAN Countries: Evidence from Linear and Nonlinear ARDL Frameworks

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-34
Author(s):  
H. F. Tareq Ahmed ◽  
Nur Syazwani Mazlan
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asean Countries ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the symmetric and/or asymmetric effects of changes in the interest rate on exchange rate of the ASEAN countries. It further aims to compare these linkages by using a dataset consisting of 48–68 quarterly data items, ranging over the period 2002–2017, of the ASEAN countries. Using both the linear autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) and nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) approaches, the findings indicate that these effects vary from one country to another. We observe that changes in interest rates have short-run symmetric effects on the exchange rates, which also hold in the long run for five ASEAN countries, namely, Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore. On the other hand, changes in interest rates have asymmetric (negative) effects on the exchange rates, which also hold in the long run for seven ASEAN countries, namely, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam.

scholarly journals Fiscal Deficit and Inflation: New Evidences from Turkey Using a Bounds Testing Approach

2014 ◽  
Author(s):  
Serap Bedir ◽  
Arzu Tural Dikmen
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rates ◽  
Empirical Relationship ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Bounds Testing ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
External Borrowing

A well-established theory in macroeconomics is that governments running persistent deficits have sooner or later to finance those deficits with money creation, thus producing inflation. The fiscal view of inflation has been especially prominent in the developing country literature, which has long recognized that less efficient tax collection, political instability, and more limited access to external borrowing tend to lower the relative cost of seigniorage and increase dependence on the inflation tax. For this reason, the main factors which affecting inflation rate in developing countries are extremely important for policy makers as when the causes of inflation are correctly specified the appropriate policy change can be easily diagnosed and effectively implemented. The purpose of this study is to test the empirical relationship between inflation and the budget deficit for the Turkish economy by an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) analysis for the period 1970–2010. The data is taken from Republic of Turkey Ministry of Development and World Bank’s Database. The empirical findings indicates that fiscal deficit is one of the important variables of the price level along with other variables like interest rates, exchange rate, per capita income, trade of GDP. The short-run analysis captured from error correction model (ECM). The results of the bounds test suggest that there is a long run relationship between fiscal deficit and inflation. These findings drive important inferences for implications of monetary and fiscal policies.

scholarly journals The role of the coffee industry in sustainable economic development in Vietnam

Accounting ◽  
2021 ◽  
pp. 683-690 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hong Anh Thi Nguyen ◽  
Thu Hang Thi Vo
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Coffee Production ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Historic Data ◽  
Bounds Test ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this research is to analyze the impact of coffee industry on economic growth of Vietnam. This research has used historic data for coffee production, consumption, exports, and coffee stock for Vietnam, thus this research has followed a quantitative design. The data in this research has been collected from the time period ranging from 1990 to 2018. There are several techniques that were applied in E-views such as descriptive statistics, bounds test, and autoregressive distributed lag model. The results of ARDL model indicate that in the short run coffee industry has an influence on the economic growth in Vietnam. It can be stated that for the short-run the null hypothesis is rejected stating that domestic consumption, exportable consumption, gross opening stock, and total coffee production have impacts over the gross domestic product (GDP) of Vietnam. The results of Bounds test show there is a significant impact of coffee industry on the economic growth of Vietnam in the long run as well.

scholarly journals Government Expenditure and Inflation in Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. p29
Author(s):  
Chioma Chidinma George-Anokwuru ◽  
Bosco Itoro Ekpenyong
Keyword(s):  
Money Supply ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Autoregressive Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
The Impact

The impact of government spending on Nigeria’s inflation levels between 1999 and 2019 was x-rayed in this paper. The data for the study were sourced from CBN statistical bulletin and Autoregressive Distributed Lag model was used as the main analytical tool. A long-run relationship among this study’s variables was realized, using the ARDL Bounds test. The result also revealed a positive but insignificant relationship between government expenditure and inflation rate in the short-run. Moreover, in the long-run, government expenditure has negative and is statistically significant inflation rate. Money supply has a negative and is statistically insignificant with inflation rate in the short-run. In the long-run, money supply has a positive and significant relationship with inflation rate. Gross domestic product was negatively related to inflation rate in both short-run and long-run. Moreover, exchange rate affected inflation rate negatively and significantly in the short-run and positively and significantly in the long-run. The increasing demands of the population affected inflation rate positively and significantly in both short-run and long-run. Investment was positively related to inflation rate but not significant in the short-run but the relationship was negative and significant in the long-run. The study therefore recommended among others that government should exercise discretion in spending in order to check inflation rate. This can be done by channeling spending on productive activities that will cushion the effect of inflation rate rather than exacerbate it.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

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