scholarly journals Quantitative Risk Assessment of African Swine Fever Introduction into Spain by Legal Import of Live Pigs

Pathogens ◽  
2022 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 76
Author(s):  
Carolina Muñoz-Pérez ◽  
Jaime Bosch ◽  
Satoshi Ito ◽  
Marta Martínez-Avilés ◽  
José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Swine Industry ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Current Spread ◽  
And Control ◽  
Stochastic Risk

African swine fever (ASF) is a devastating infectious disease of pigs that is threatening the global swine industry at present. The current spread of ASF in Europe and its recent incursion into Germany pose a serious risk to Spain, one of the world’s leading pig producers. A quantitative stochastic risk assessment model was developed to estimate the probability of ASF introduction into Spain via the legal import of live pigs. The results suggest a low annual probability of ASF introduction into Spain (1.07 × 10−4), the highest risk being concentrated in Central European countries (Germany, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Luxembourg) during the months of April and February. The methods and results presented herein could contribute to improving prevention and control strategies and, ultimately, would help reduce the risk of ASF introduction into Spain.

scholarly journals Risk Assessment of African Swine Fever Virus Exposure to Sus scrofa in Japan Via Pork Products Brought in Air Passengers’ Luggage

Pathogens ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 302
Author(s):  
Satoshi Ito ◽  
Jaime Bosch ◽  
Cristina Jurado ◽  
José Manuel Sánchez-Vizcaíno ◽  
Norikazu Isoda
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Wild Boar ◽  
African Swine Fever Virus ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Domestic Pigs ◽  
Pork Products ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
Virus Exposure ◽  
Stochastic Risk

In recent years, African swine fever (ASF) has become prevalent in many areas, including Asia. The repeated detection of the ASF virus (ASFV) genome in pork products brought in air passenger’s luggage (PPAP) was also reported from Japanese airports. In the present study, the risk of ASFV exposure to susceptible hosts in Japan via three different pathways was assessed. Two quantitative stochastic risk assessment models were built to estimate the annual probability of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs, which could be attributed to foreign job trainees or foreign tourists. A semi-quantitative stochastic model was built to assess the risk of ASFV exposure to wild boar caused by foreign tourists. The overall mean annual probability of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs via PPAP carried by foreign job trainees was 0.169 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.000–0.600], whereas that by foreign tourists was 0.050 [95% CI: 0.000–0.214], corresponding to approximately one introduction every 5.9 and 20 years, respectively. The risk of ASFV exposure to domestic pigs was dispersed over the country, whereas that of wild boar was generally higher in the western part of Japan, indicating that the characteristics of the potential ASF risk in each prefecture were varied.

Quantitative risk assessment model of canine rabies introduction: application to the risk to the European Union from Morocco

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (11) ◽  
pp. 1569-1580 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. NAPP ◽  
M. CASAS ◽  
S. MOSET ◽  
J. L. PARAMIO ◽  
J. CASAL
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
European Union ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Total Probability ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Annual Probability ◽  
The Eu

SUMMARYAlthough rabies incidence in humans in Western Europe is low, the repeated importation of rabid animals from enzootic areas threatens the rabies-free status of terrestrial animals and challenges the public health systems in this area. Most rabid animals imported into the European Union (EU) in recent years came from Morocco. The aim of this study was to develop a probabilistic risk assessment model to estimate the probability of rabies introduction, which was applied to the risk to the EU from dogs coming from Morocco. The mean annual probability of rabies introduction was 0·21 (90% CI 0·02–0·65). The pathways that contributed the most to this probability were: (a) EU citizens who adopted a dog in Morocco (59% of the total probability) and (b) EU citizens who travelled with their dog to Morocco by ferry (34% of the total probability). The model showed a marked seasonality in the risk of rabies with almost 40% of the annual probability occurring during the months of July and August. The application of stricter border controls (assuming 100% compliance) would result in a >270-fold reduction in the likelihood of rabies introduction into the EU from Morocco.

A semi-quantitative risk assessment model for the outbreak of grass carp hemorrhage

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 521-527 ◽  
Author(s):  
Song YANG ◽  
Shuqin WU ◽  
Ningqiu LI ◽  
Cunbin SHI ◽  
Guocheng DENG ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Grass Carp ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Model

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Listeriosis-Associated Deaths Due to Listeria monocytogenes Contamination of Deli Meats Originating from Manufacture and Retail

2010 ◽  
Vol 73 (4) ◽  
pp. 620-630 ◽  
Author(s):  
ABANI K. PRADHAN ◽  
RENATA IVANEK ◽  
YRJÖ T. GRÖHN ◽  
ROBERT BUKOWSKI ◽  
IFIGENIA GEORNARAS ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Listeria Monocytogenes ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Storage Temperature ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Lag Phase ◽  
Reported Data

The objective of this study was to estimate the relative risk of listeriosis-associated deaths attributable to Listeria monocytogenes contamination in ham and turkey formulated without and with growth inhibitors (GIs). Two contamination scenarios were investigated: (i) prepackaged deli meats with contamination originating solely from manufacture at a frequency of 0.4% (based on reported data) and (ii) retail-sliced deli meats with contamination originating solely from retail at a frequency of 2.3% (based on reported data). Using a manufacture-to-consumption risk assessment with product-specific growth kinetic parameters (i.e., lag phase and exponential growth rate), reformulation with GIs was estimated to reduce human listeriosis deaths linked to ham and turkey by 2.8- and 9-fold, respectively, when contamination originated at manufacture and by 1.9- and 2.8-fold, respectively, for products contaminated at retail. Contamination originating at retail was estimated to account for 76 and 63% of listeriosis deaths caused by ham and turkey, respectively, when all products were formulated without GIs and for 83 and 84% of listeriosis deaths caused by ham and turkey, respectively, when all products were formulated with GIs. Sensitivity analyses indicated that storage temperature was the most important factor affecting the estimation of per annum relative risk. Scenario analyses suggested that reducing storage temperature in home refrigerators to consistently below 7°C would greatly reduce the risk of human listeriosis deaths, whereas reducing storage time appeared to be less effective. Overall, our data indicate a critical need for further development and implementation of effective control strategies to reduce L. monocytogenes contamination at the retail level.

A quantitative risk assessment model for Staphylococcus aureus and Salmonella associated with consumption of informally marketed milk products in Tigray, Ethiopia

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijalem T. Weldeabezgi ◽  
Teklebrhan W. Atsbha ◽  
Hagos H. Kassegn ◽  
Teklehaimanot F. Gebremichael ◽  
Mihret H. Berhe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Staphylococcus Aureus ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Milk Products

scholarly journals A quantitative risk assessment for the occurrence of campylobacter in chickens at the point of slaughter

2001 ◽  
Vol 127 (2) ◽  
pp. 195-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. HARTNETT ◽  
L. KELLY ◽  
D. NEWELL ◽  
M. WOOLDRIDGE ◽  
G. GETTINBY
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Meat Products ◽  
Human Infection ◽  
Chicken Meat ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Assessment Model ◽  
Poultry Flock

A quantitative risk assessment model investigating the risk of human infection with campylobacter from the consumption of chicken meat/products is currently being formulated. Here such an approach is used to evaluate the probability that a random bird, selected at slaughter from Great Britain's national poultry flock, will be campylobacter-positive. This is determined from the probability that a flock chosen at random contains at least one colonized bird and the within-flock prevalence of such a flock at slaughter. The model indicates that the probability bird chosen at random being campylobacter-positive at slaughter is 0·53. This probability value has associated uncertainty, the 5th percentile being 0·51 and the 95th percentile 0·55. The model predicts that delaying the age at first exposure to campylobacter can have a significant impact on reducing the probability of a bird being campylobacter-positive at slaughter. However, implementation of current biosecurity methods makes this difficult to achieve.

scholarly journals Quantitative risk assessment of Bacillus cereus in pasteurised milk produced in the Slovak Republic

2014 ◽  
Vol 32 (No. 2) ◽  
pp. 122-131 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. Ačai ◽  
Ľ. Valík ◽  
D. Liptáková
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Bacillus Cereus ◽  
Exposure Assessment ◽  
Dose Response ◽  
Slovak Republic ◽  
Reporting Rate ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Milk Consumption ◽  
Using Data

Quantitative risk assessment of Bacillus cereus using data from pasteurised milk produced in Slovakia was performed. Monte Carlo simulations were used for probability calculation of B. cereus density at the time of pasteurised milk consumption for several different scenarios. The results of the general case exposure assessment indicated that almost 14% of cartons can contain &gt; 10<sup>4</sup> CFU/ml of B. cereus at the time of pasteurised milk consumption. Despite the absence of a generally applicable dose-response relationship that limits a full risk assessment, the probability of intoxication per serving and the estimated number of cases in the population were calculated for the general exposure assessment scenario using an exponential dose-response model based on Slovak data. The mean number of annual cases provided by the risk assessment model for pasteurised milk produced in Slovakia was 0.054/100 000 population. In comparison, the overall reporting rate of the outbreaks in the EU in which B. cereus toxins were the causative agent was 0.02/100 000 population in 2010. Our assessment is in accordance with a generally accepted fact that reporting data for alimentary intoxication are underestimated, mostly due to the short duration of the illness. &nbsp;

USE OF BAYESIAN METHOD FOR ASSESSING VESSEL TRAFFIC RISKS AT SEA

2008 ◽  
Vol 07 (04) ◽  
pp. 627-638 ◽  
Author(s):  
SHENPING HU ◽  
XUDONG LI ◽  
QUANGEN FANG ◽  
ZAILI YANG
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Traffic Accidents ◽  
Point Estimation ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Ship Traffic ◽  
Traffic System ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Ship Operation

Risks associated with a vessel traffic system at sea are analyzed according to the elements in this system and a new method is developed to ensure safe ship operation. Based on Bayes' point estimation and probability influence diagram to estimate the traffic accidents related to vessel traffic, an analysis model is established for the quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the vessel traffic system at sea. After the analysis on occurrence likelihood of the accidents related to ship traffic, a structure on the basis of Bayesian networks is developed to obtain the QRA of their relative risks. QRA is also put forward after analyzing the features and situations of the vessel traffic system and identifying the corresponding hazards including characteristics of those hazards. The risk distributions of ship traffic are described and results are presented on QRA in relation to various features by using this risk assessment model. This method, verified in the cases of QRA, turns out to be feasible by the use of identified posterior probability.

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