scholarly journals Is Smart Housing a Good Deal? An Answer Based on Monte Carlo Net Present Value Analysis

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (15) ◽  
pp. 4193 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elariane ◽  
Dubé
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Smart Cities ◽  
Statistical Significance ◽  
Good Deal ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Social Growth ◽  
Operation Costs

The smart cities are considered to be an engine of economic and social growth. Most countries started to convert their existing cities into smart cities or construct new smart cities in order to improve the quality of life of their inhabitants. However, the problem that facing those countries while applying the concept of smart cities is the costs, especially for the residential sector. Despite the high initial and even operation costs for adopting different technologies in smart housing; the benefits could exceed those costs within the lifespan of the project. This article is shedding the light on the economics of smart housing. This study aims to evaluate the net present value (NPV) of a smart economic housing model to check the viability and feasibility of such projects. The calculation of the NPV based on Monte Carlo simulation provides an interesting methodological framework to evaluate the robustness of the results as well as providing a simple way to test for statistical significance of the results. This analysis helps to evaluate the potential profitability of smart housing solutions. The research ends up by proving the feasibility of this type of project.

scholarly journals SEQUENTIAL CAPITAL INVESTMENT DECISION MAKING UNDER EXTREME CASH FL OW SITUATIONS: EVIDENCE USING MONTE CARLO SIMULATION

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 877-900 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wenqing Zhang ◽  
Prasad Padmanabhan ◽  
Chia-Hsing Huang
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo Simulation ◽  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Capital Investment ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Capital Budgeting ◽  
Cash Flows ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Value Analysis

Uncertainty influences a decision maker's choices when making sequential capital investment decisions. With the possibility of extremely negative cash inflows, firms may need to curtail operations significantly. Traditional Net Present Value analysis does not allow for efficient management of these problems. In addition, firm managers may behave irrationally by accepting negative Net Present Value projects in the short term. This paper presents a Monte Carlo simulation based model to provide policy insights on how to incorporate extreme cash flows and manager irrationality scenarios into the capital budgeting process. This paper presents evidence that firms with irrational managers and experiencing extremely negative cash flows may, under certain conditions, reap long term rewards associated with the acceptance of negative Net Present Value projects in the short term. These benefits are largest if cost ratios (discount rates) are small, or investment horizons are high. We argue that acceptance of short term negative Net Present Value projects implies the purchase of a long term real option which can generate positive long term cash flows under certain conditions.

scholarly journals Plasma Assisted Combustion as a Cost-Effective Way for Balancing of Intermittent Sources: Techno-Economic Assessment for 200 MWel Power Unit

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (19) ◽  
pp. 5056
Author(s):  
Tadeusz Mączka ◽  
Halina Pawlak-Kruczek ◽  
Lukasz Niedzwiecki ◽  
Edward Ziaja ◽  
Artur Chorążyczewski
Keyword(s):  
Power Unit ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Renewable Energy Sources ◽  
Cost Effective ◽  
Economic Assessment ◽  
Marginal Effect ◽  
The European Union ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Plasma System ◽  
Value Analysis

Due to the increasing installed power of the intermittent renewable energy sources in the European Union, increasing the operation flexibility of the generating units in the system is necessary. This is particularly important for systems with relatively large installed power of wind and solar. Plasma technologies can be used for that purpose. Nonetheless, the wide implementation of such technology should be economically justified. This paper shows that the use of plasma systems for increasing the flexibility of power units can be economically feasible, based on the results of a net present value analysis. The cost of the installation itself had a marginal effect on the results of the net present value analysis. Based on the performed analysis, the ability to lower the technical minimum of the power unit and the relationship between such a technical minimum and the installed power of a plasma system can be considered decisive factors influencing the economics of the investment for such an installation. Further research on better means of prediction of the minimum attainable load, which would allow determining the influence of implementation of a plasma system, is recommended. This will be the decisive factor behind future decisions regarding investing in such systems.

scholarly journals The economic value of an investment in physiotherapy education: a net present value analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 148-154 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Rivers ◽  
Jonathan Foo ◽  
Dragan Ilic ◽  
Peter Nicklen ◽  
Scott Reeves ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Physiotherapy Education

Economics of Purchasing Genetically Superior Beef Bulls

1984 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 31-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
G. M. Clary ◽  
J. W. Jordan ◽  
C. E. Thompson
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Superior Performance ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Beef Cow ◽  
Additional Amount ◽  
Bid Price ◽  
Beef Herd ◽  
Alternative Scenarios ◽  
The Impact

AbstractNet present value analysis is used to derive the marginal bid price for a beef herd sire from after-tax net revenues and cash flow influenced by genetic improvements. Marginal bid price represents the additional amount a producer could pay, above the present value of the current beef herd sire, for a sire expected to exhibit superior performance as reflected by increased average weaning weights of offspring.An analysis of the profitability of purchasing a breeding bull for a commercial beef cow herd is presented as an application. Several alternative scenarios illustrate the impact of selected determinants on the marginal bid price of a bull.

scholarly journals The Valuation of the Operational Flexibility of the Energy Investment Project Based on a Gas-Fired Power Plant

Energies ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 13 (7) ◽  
pp. 1567 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Kryzia ◽  
Michał Kopacz ◽  
Katarzyna Kryzia
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Investment Project ◽  
Combined Cycle ◽  
Operational Flexibility ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Discounted Cash Flow ◽  
Energy Investment ◽  
Significance Level ◽  
Technical Parameters

This paper presents an attempt to the valuation of the operational flexibility of the energy investment project based on the example of combined cycle gas turbine (CCGT). For this purpose, the real options approach (ROA), net present value (NPV) method, and the Monte Carlo (MC) simulation have been used. Motivations to take up such a topic result from the fact that traditional valuation methods neglect flexibility embedded in CCGT assets. Operational flexibility was defined as the switching option to dynamically shut down and restart gas units. Valuation of the operational flexibility, the project’s extended net present value (XNPV), was based on a discounted cash flow model. The Monte Carlo simulation, allowing for better replication of the stochastic nature of market factors and some technical parameters, was introduced to the valuation model. The obtained results indicate that the value of the options significantly influences the NPV of the analyzed technology and its risk profile. The NPV was calculated at −169.1 million USD, while the XNPV amounted to 102.5 million USD. This difference, compared to the NPV distribution range at a significance level of 0.05, was more than 8.1% (almost 10.4% for α = 0.1). The results achieved help to explain the significance of the operational flexibility in the modeling profitability of CCGT technologies.

scholarly journals A Net-Present Value Analysis for a Wind Turbine Purchase at a Small US College

Energies ◽  
2010 ◽  
Vol 3 (5) ◽  
pp. 943-959 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas H. Johnson ◽  
Barry D. Solomon
Keyword(s):  
Wind Turbine ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Present Value ◽  
Value Analysis

The Rate of Return to Teaching: How does it Compare to other Graduate Jobs?

2004 ◽  
Vol 190 ◽  
pp. 89-103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Dolton ◽  
Tsung-Ping Chung
Keyword(s):  
Net Present Value ◽  
Careful Analysis ◽  
Teaching Profession ◽  
Rate Of Return ◽  
Present Value ◽  
School Teachers ◽  
Value Analysis ◽  
Qualified Teachers ◽  
The Past ◽  
Return To Teaching

The problem of recruiting graduates into the teaching profession and retaining them has bedevilled recent UK governments. An obvious question to ask is why is teaching so relatively unattractive for graduates. This paper presents a careful analysis of this problem. We compare the earnings of qualified teachers who choose to teach with the ‘opportunity wage’ for those who do not teach. We find that the ‘rate of return on career choice’ for teachers has been declining for both men and women over the past 25 years although teaching is still relatively well paid for women. From our net present value analysis we estimate that males who enter teaching lose, on average, earnings of £40,000 to £67,000 over their lifetime while females could stand to gain average earnings of £42,000 to £65,000 if they opted to become school teachers.

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