scholarly journals Delay Risk Assessment Models for Road Projects

Systems ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 70
Author(s):  
Fani Antoniou
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Road Construction ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Risk Priority Number ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Ideal Situation ◽  
Order Preference ◽  
Road Projects ◽  
Project Data ◽  
Risk Breakdown Structure

Significant universal research regarding causes of delay in road projects has been carried out based on expert opinion. This study classifies and standardizes all road construction delay factors found in the literature by developing a common risk breakdown structure (RBS) to allow for comparison between real project delay factors, and the study also proposes two delay risk assessment models (DRAMs) based on delay information from 120 real projects constructed in a similar environment with akin procurement and contract policies. The first calculates the risk priority number (RPN) and the second applies the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Situation (TOPSIS) multi-criteria decision-making method (MCDM). The results showed that four specific delay factors dominate in Greek road construction for which relevant mitigation proposals are made. The proposed DRAMs, while calibrated for application in Greece, can be adapted to any construction environment for which real project data is available to provide a tool for transferring experience from past projects to future projects and from accomplished to novice public client decision makers.

Integrating TOPSIS and DEMATEL Methods to Rank the Risk of Failure of FMEA

2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (06) ◽  
pp. 1229-1257 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kuei-Hu Chang ◽  
Yung-Chia Chang ◽  
Yu-Tsai Lee
Keyword(s):  
Failure Mode ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Iso 9000 ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Risk Priority Number ◽  
Effect Analysis ◽  
Analysis Techniques ◽  
Risk Of Failure ◽  
Quality Certification ◽  
Order Preference

Failure mode and effect analysis (FMEA) is one of the risk analysis techniques recommended by international quality certification systems, such as ISO 9000, ISO/TS 16949, CE, and QS9000. Most current FMEA methods use the risk priority number (RPN) value to evaluate the risk of failure. The RPN value is the mathematical product of the three parameters of a failure mode that is rated between 1 and 10 in terms of its severity (S), occurrence (O), and detection (D), respectively. However, the RPN method has been found with three main drawbacks: (1) high duplicate RPN values, (2) failure to consider the ordered weights of S, O, and D, and (3) failure to consider the direct and indirect relationships between the failure modes and causes of failure. Therefore, this paper integrates the technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) and the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) approach to rank the risk of failure. A case of an inlet plate ring that has been drawn from a professional mechanical factory is presented to further illustrate the proposed approach. After comparing the result that was obtained from the proposed method with the conventional RPN and DEMATEL methods, it was found that the proposed method can resolve the abovementioned RPN ranking issues and give a more appropriate risk assessment than other listed approaches to provide valuable information for the decision makers.

scholarly journals Technique of precise order preference for multiple risk assessment in occupational health and safety: Industrial case study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nazli Gulum Mutlu ◽  
◽  
Serkan Altuntas ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Occupational Health ◽  
Failure Modes ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Occupational Health And Safety ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Industrial Case Study ◽  
Advantages And Disadvantages ◽  
Order Preference ◽  
Traditional Approaches

Risk assessment in manufacturing, construction or service systems are very important tools for ensuring occupational health and safety. Many risk assessment approaches have been proposed in the literature, each with its advantages and disadvantages. In the literature, the authors attempt to develop methods to overcome some of these disadvantages. Different risk priority orders can be obtained for the same failure types with the developed and traditional approaches, and the results may be inconsistent. Hence, different methods produce inconsistent risk ranking outcomes for the same risk assessment problem. This causes confusion for decision-makers when deciding the most-risky failure modes. In this study, the application of the Technique of Precise Order Preference (TPOP) for risk assessment in the field of occupational health and safety (OHS) is conducted to fill the gap in the literature concerning the problem in question and to solve the ranking inconsistency problem related to occupational health and safety. The results of this study show that the advantages obtained from different methods can be combined and a favorable risk priority order can be acquired for decision-makers.

VTE risk assessment in cancer

2016 ◽  
Vol 07 (01) ◽  
pp. 20-25
Author(s):  
I. Pabinger ◽  
C. Ay
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Cancer Patients ◽  
Medical Oncology ◽  
Clinical Importance ◽  
Cancer Surgery ◽  
Ambulatory Setting ◽  
Oncology Patients ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Increased Risk

SummaryVenous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with cancer is associated with an increased morbidity and mortality, and its prevention is of major clinical importance. However, the VTE rates in the cancer population vary between 0.5% - 20%, depending on cancer-, treatment- and patient-related factors. The most important contributors to VTE risk are the tumor entity, stage and certain anticancer treatments. Cancer surgery represents a strong risk factor for VTE, and medical oncology patients are at increased risk of developing VTE, especially when receiving chemotherapy or immunomodulatory drugs. Also biomarkers have been investigated for their usefulness to predict risk of VTE (e.g. elevated leukocyte and platelet counts, soluble P-selectin, D-dimer, etc.). In order to identify cancer patients at high risk of VTE and to improve risk stratification, risk assessment models have been developed, which contain both clinical parameters and biomarkers. While primary thromboprophylaxis with lowmolecular- weight-heparin (LMWH) is recommended postoperatively for a period of up to 4 weeks after major cancer surgery, the evidence is less clear for medical oncology patients. Thromboprophylaxis in hospitalized medical oncology patients is advocated, and is based on results of randomized controlled trials which evaluated the efficacy and safety of LMWH for prevention of VTE in hospitalized medically ill patients. In recent trials the benefit of primary thromboprophylaxis in cancer patients receiving chemotherapy in the ambulatory setting has been investigated. However, at the present stage primary thromboprophylaxis for prevention of VTE in these patients is still a matter of debate and cannot be recommended for all cancer outpatients.

Risk assessment models with functionally different influences on natural and technical systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 89 ◽  
pp. 8-19
Author(s):  
V. A. Minaev ◽  
◽  
N. G. Topolsky ◽  
A. O. Faddeev ◽  
R. O. Stepanov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Differential Equations ◽  
Research Area ◽  
Practical Implementation ◽  
Model Assessment ◽  
Mathematical Functions ◽  
Effective Response ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Technical Systems ◽  
Material Values

Introduction. The complex combination of natural and technogenic factors that lead to dangerous threats to the health and life of the population, as well as to material values, creates a need to develop special mathematical models for risk assessment in the relevant territories. Herewith it is important to take into account the significant differences between these factors. The new areas of research are models that describe natural and technogenic risks using differential equations that reflect different types of functions. The article presents the development of this research area. Goals and objectives. The goal of the article is to create a model for risk assessment in natural and technical systems (PTS), based on taking into account the influences of different natural and technogenic factors on them. Objectives include justification, construction and practical implementation of the mathematical model of risk assessment in the form of differential equations system. Methods include interpretation of the considered influences on PTS in terms of risks and assessment of the dynamic interaction of natural and technogenic factors in the form of inhomogeneous differential equations. Results and discussion. Solutions for models of assessing complex natural and technogenic risks in relation to two cases that differ in NTS are found: functionally different external natural and technogenic influences on PTS, which are understood as their type, in which the effects of both natural and technogenic factors are described by different mathematical functions. Conclusions. The first model considers parabolic (reflecting threats whose intensity gradually decreases with distance from the epicenter) and linear types of influences (reflecting sudden threats). The second model considers parabolic and hyperbolic (reflecting threats, the intensity of which decreases sharply over time) types of influences. It is concluded that it is necessary to create a special computer album of complex influences on the PTS in order to prevent "replay" of various situations and develop the most effective response to emerging dangers from the EMERCOM units and other structures. Key words: model, assessment, natural and technogenic risks, functionally different influences, counteraction, EMERCOM units.

scholarly journals A practical approach for evaluating the strength of knowledge supporting risk assessment models

2020 ◽  
Vol 124 ◽  
pp. 104596 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tasneem Bani-Mustafa ◽  
Zhiguo Zeng ◽  
Enrico Zio ◽  
Dominique Vasseur
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Practical Approach ◽  
Risk Assessment Models

scholarly journals The Role of Intuition and Prognostic Risk Assessment Regarding the Leave of Offenders with Mental Disorders

2009 ◽  
Vol 24 (S1) ◽  
pp. 1-1
Author(s):  
C. Schmitt
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Mentally Ill ◽  
Psychological Factors ◽  
Methodological Problem ◽  
German Law ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Mentally Ill Offenders ◽  
Rare Occurrence ◽  
German State

The granting of leave during terms of imprisonment plays an important part in the treatment of mentally ill offenders. According to German law, leave is to be granted in those cases where the abuse of this privilege or an attempt to flee can be negated. These regulations also, however, imply that the risk assessment of a patient's offence-related recidivism can not be the only criterion for the granting of leave.So far, there have only been few studies about the prognostic risk assessment of the general abuse of leave. This is rather astonishing, as the granting of leave outside the institutional grounds, in particular, is a decision which often leaves those responsible fraught with anxiety. Furthermore, the abuse of a granted temporary release can lead to severe consequences on various levels.As part of a study to be conducted in the German state of Rhineland-Palatinate, decisions about granting leave are to be analyzed and possible predictors of the abuse of leave are to be examined.It is assumed that the abuse of leave is likely to be motivated by the conditions of particular situations and can primarily be explained by normal psychological factors.However, it should be pointed out that, as the abuse of leave is such a rare occurrence, it poses a significant methodological problem. The criterion to be examined therefore needs to be exactly defined and particular attention must be paid to achieve an adequately high interreliability of the decision makers.

Layers of Bias: A Unified Approach for Understanding Problems With Risk Assessment

2018 ◽  
Vol 46 (2) ◽  
pp. 185-209 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurel Eckhouse ◽  
Kristian Lum ◽  
Cynthia Conti-Cook ◽  
Julie Ciccolini
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Criminal Justice ◽  
Justice System ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Scores ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Risk Assessment Models ◽  
Final Layer ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Using Data

Scholars in several fields, including quantitative methodologists, legal scholars, and theoretically oriented criminologists, have launched robust debates about the fairness of quantitative risk assessment. As the Supreme Court considers addressing constitutional questions on the issue, we propose a framework for understanding the relationships among these debates: layers of bias. In the top layer, we identify challenges to fairness within the risk-assessment models themselves. We explain types of statistical fairness and the tradeoffs between them. The second layer covers biases embedded in data. Using data from a racially biased criminal justice system can lead to unmeasurable biases in both risk scores and outcome measures. The final layer engages conceptual problems with risk models: Is it fair to make criminal justice decisions about individuals based on groups? We show that each layer depends on the layers below it: Without assurances about the foundational layers, the fairness of the top layers is irrelevant.

scholarly journals Validation of Risk Assessment Models for Predicting the Incidence of Breast Cancer in Korean Women

2014 ◽  
Vol 17 (3) ◽  
pp. 226 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jun Won Min ◽  
Myung-Chul Chang ◽  
Hae Kyung Lee ◽  
Min Hee Hur ◽  
Dong-Young Noh ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Breast Cancer ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Korean Women ◽  
Risk Assessment Models

scholarly journals Communicating earthquake risk: mapped parameters and cartographic representation

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 359-366 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. M. Gaspar-Escribano ◽  
T. Iturrioz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Seismic Risk ◽  
Risk Information ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Earthquake Risk ◽  
Graphical Representations ◽  
Related Risk ◽  
Different Types ◽  
Earthquake Effects ◽  
Earthquake Risk Assessment

Abstract. Earthquake risk assessment is probably the most effective tool for reducing adverse earthquake effects and for developing pre- and post-event planning actions. The related risk information (data and results) is of interest for persons with different backgrounds and interests, including scientists, emergency planners, decision makers and other stakeholders. Hence, it is important to ensure that this information is properly transferred to all persons involved in seismic risk, considering the nature of the information and the particular circumstances of the source and of the receiver of the information. Some experience-based recommendations about the parameters and the graphical representations that can be used to portray earthquake risk information to different types of audiences are presented in this work.

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