scholarly journals Flood Risk Analysis of Different Climatic Phenomena during Flood Season Based on Copula-based Bayesian Network Method: A Case Study of Taihu Basin, China

Water ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 1534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luo ◽  
Dong ◽  
Guan ◽  
Liu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Water Level ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Taihu Lake ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Management Model ◽  
Flood Season ◽  
Taihu Basin

We propose a flood risk management model for the Taihu Basin, China, that considers the spatial and temporal differences of flood risk caused by the different climatic phenomena. In terms of time, the probability distribution of climatic phenomenon occurrence time was used to divide the flood season into plum rain and the typhoon periods. In terms of space, the Taihu Basin was divided into different sub-regions by the Copula functions. Finally, we constructed a flood risk management model using the Copula-based Bayesian network to analyze the flood risk. The results showed the plum rain period occurs from June 24 to July 21 and the typhoon period from July 22 to September 22. Considering the joint distribution of sub-region precipitation and the water level of Taihu Lake, we divided the Taihu Basin into three sub-regions (P-I, P-II, and P-III) for risk analysis in the plum rain period. However, the Taihu Basin was used as a whole for flood risk analysis in the typhoon period. Risk analysis indicated a probability of 2.4%, and 0.8%, respectively, for future adverse drainage during the plum rain period and the typhoon period, the flood risk increases rapidly with the rising water level in the Taihu Lake.

scholarly journals Regional Flood Risk Management Modeling and Application

2018 ◽  
Vol 246 ◽  
pp. 01024
Author(s):  
Bojun Liu ◽  
Jinliang Zhang ◽  
Libin Yang ◽  
Siyu Cai ◽  
Dawei Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Yangtze River ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Disaster Mitigation ◽  
Management Model ◽  
The Yangtze River ◽  
Flood Prevention ◽  
Water Resources Protection ◽  
New Situation

China is one of the countries with frequent flood disaster, and it does fall often with more precipitation especially from June to October in the Yangtze River, which would very easily cause floods thereby seriously threating to the safety of each region along the Yangtze River. How to manage regional flood risk reasonably and efficiently under the new situation of the joint effects of climatic change and human activities deserves more researches. The regional flood risk management model is built and applied in the Jingjiang section of the Yangtze River to derive regional flood processes under the condition of floodwall break and assess the effects of flood on each factor in the region. The built model is reliable and practical with reasonable results, would support some sort of technical help for regional flood risk management, water resources protection and measure-making of flood prevention and disaster mitigation.

Flood Risk Analysis

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bruno Merz
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Nuclear Power ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Risk Assessments ◽  
Runoff Generation ◽  
Knowledge Modeling ◽  
Damage Scenarios

Floods affect more people worldwide than any other natural hazard. Flood risk results from the interplay of a range of processes. For river floods, these are the flood-triggering processes in the atmosphere, runoff generation in the catchment, flood waves traveling through the river network, possibly flood defense failure, and finally, inundation and damage processes in the flooded areas. In addition, ripple effects, such as regional or even global supply chain disruptions, may occur. Effective and efficient flood risk management requires understanding and quantifying the flood risk and its possible future developments. Hence, risk analysis is a key element of flood risk management. Risk assessments can be structured according to three questions: What can go wrong? How likely is it that it will happen? If it goes wrong, what are the consequences? Before answering these questions, the system boundaries, the processes to be included, and the detail of the analysis need to be carefully selected. One of the greatest challenges in flood risk analyses is the identification of the set of failure or damage scenarios. Often, extreme events beyond the experience of the analyst are missing, which may bias the risk estimate. Another challenge is the estimation of probabilities. There are at most a few observed events where data on the flood situation, such as inundation extent, depth, and loss are available. That means that even in the most optimistic situation there are only a few data points to validate the risk estimates. The situation is even more delicate when the risk has to be quantified for important infrastructure objects, such as breaching of a large dam or flooding of a nuclear power plant. Such events are practically unrepeatable. Hence, estimating of probabilities needs to be based on all available evidence, using observations whenever possible, but also including theoretical knowledge, modeling, specific investigations, experience, or expert judgment. As a result, flood risk assessments are often associated with large uncertainties. Examples abound where authorities, people at risk, and disaster management have been taken by surprise due to unexpected failure scenarios. This is not only a consequence of the complexity of flood risk systems, but may also be attributed to cognitive biases, such as being overconfident in the risk assessment. Hence, it is essential to ask: How wrong can the risk analysis be and still guarantee that the outcome is acceptable?

scholarly journals An approach to the implementation of European Directive 2007/60/EC on flood risk management in the Czech Republic

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 1977-1987 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Dráb ◽  
J. Říha
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Analysis Methods ◽  
Flood Risk Analysis

Abstract. Directive 2007/60/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2007 on the assessment and management of flood risks (the Flood Risk Directive) signifies that flood risk analysis methods are gaining ground in EC Member States and, therefore, also in the Czech Republic (CR). Procedures of flood risk analysis have been developed in the Czech Republic since the catastrophic floods of 1997 in line with European and worldwide trends and have been tested and applied in hundreds of case studies to date. Currently, the Flood Risk Directive Guideline based on past experience with flood risk analysis applications is being processed. The aim of the paper is to present flood risk analysis procedures and specially developed techniques for the assembly of flood hazard, danger and flood risk maps. Methods related to flood risk management plans are briefly mentioned as well. The following particular problems are discussed in more detail: an application and extension of the "danger matrix" approach, the definition of residual danger, the formulation of efficiency criteria and preliminary multi-criteria flood risk assessment. These issues were tested in practical applications at pilot locations in the Czech Republic. Present experience provides evidence that the flood risk analysis methods used in the Czech Republic are in harmony with the requirements of the Flood Risk Directive. The proposed and applied methods are based primarily on existing available data such as flood extent maps, cadastral maps, the Register of Census Districts and Structures and others.

Research on Flood Integrated Risk Dynamic Management Framework for Coastal Cities

2014 ◽  
Vol 501-504 ◽  
pp. 2138-2141
Author(s):  
Ming Qiong Liu ◽  
Hui Ying Gao ◽  
Chun Yan Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Flood Plain ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Assessment Model ◽  
Dynamic Management ◽  
Integrated Risk ◽  
Integrated Risk Analysis

From the point of flood integrated risk analysis and risk dynamic management, analysis and discussion the reason of flood disasters occur frequently. Flood risk management is divided into six types: flood risk, flood control project risk, flood investment risk, flood plain risk, flood eco-environment risk and flood control decision risk management. Furthermore, a risk assessment model was established, and this paper puts forward four targets of flood risk management, eventually forming flood risk management flow, which provides a framework for flood integrated risk analysis and risk management.

scholarly journals The value of integrating information from multiple hazards for flood risk analysis and management

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 379-400 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. T. Castillo-Rodríguez ◽  
I. Escuder-Bueno ◽  
L. Altarejos-García ◽  
A. Serrano-Lombillo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Management ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
National Level ◽  
Flood Risk Management ◽  
Dam Failure ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
River Flooding ◽  
Flood Risk Analysis

Abstract. This article presents a methodology for estimating flood risk in urban areas integrating pluvial flooding, river flooding and failure of both small and large dams. The first part includes a review of basic concepts on flood risk analysis, evaluation and management. Flood risk analyses may be developed at local, regional and national level, however a general methodology to perform a quantitative flood risk analysis including different flood hazards is still required. The second part describes the proposed methodology, which presents an integrated approach – combining pluvial, river flooding and flooding from dam failure, as applied to a case study: an urban area located downstream of a dam under construction. The methodology enhances the approach developed within the SUFRI project ("Sustainable Strategies of Urban Flood Risk Management to cope with the residual risk", 2009–2011). This article also shows how outcomes from flood risk analysis provide better and more complete information to inform authorities, local entities and the stakeholders involved in decision-making with regard to flood risk management.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document